AI Model:

Justin Edwards▲

PHI · SF

PPG

5.8

RPG

1.7

APG

1.3

L5 PPG

12.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+6.8

5.8

12.6

RPG+2.3

1.7

4.0

APG+1.3

1.3

2.6

SPG+1.3

0.9

2.2

BPG+0.4

0.2

0.6

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

12.5

MIN

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs MIN: 5 pts

IND

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs IND: 2 pts

SAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAS: 9 pts

UTA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs UTA: 5 pts

CLE

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs CLE: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MEM: 0 pts

DET

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DET: 12 pts

BKN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BKN: 19 pts

POR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs POR: 21 pts

DEN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DEN: 11 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

REB

UNDER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

54%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

PRA

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

P+R

UNDER 15.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.2

6.0

RPG

1.9

2.0

APG

1.8

1.5

vs SAC (H2H)3 games

PPG

4.0

RPG

0.7

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Ryan Rollins	2	6	56%	+10.6%	low
James Harden	2	6	79%	+26.4%	low
DeMar DeRozan	2	5	0%	-45.0%	low
Brandon Ingram	2	5	75%

Edwards’ minutes spike keeps his scoring upside alive, but the season-long profile still leans modest

Justin Edwards has surged over the last five games, averaging 12.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 2.8 stocks in 23.2 minutes, well above his season marks of 5.8 points, 1.7 rebounds and 1.3 assists. That said, the sample is volatile: his last-20 line is much closer to 7.0 points, 1.9 rebounds and 1.6 assists, and his season prop means remain fairly low. The matchup is not a clear green light either, since Sacramento’s opponent defense data shows a 120.73 defensive rating and 1.226 scoring suppression, which supports a more conservative projection. He has also averaged just 4 points, 0.7 rebounds and 1 assist in 3 games vs this opponent, with 11.7 minutes per game in that history.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.6(↑ from 5.8)

RPG

4.0(↑ from 1.7)

APG

2.6(↑ from 1.3)

SPG

2.2(↑ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, and the opponent defense profile is mixed for overs: Sacramento carries a 120.73 defensive rating with 1.226 scoring suppression, which is not ideal for an efficiency-driven scoring over. His prior 3-game history vs this opponent is also light, averaging just 4 points, 0.6666666666666666 rebounds and 1 assist in 11.666666666666666 minutes per game.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Justin Edwards▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	32	✗
Justin Edwards▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	70%	0	✓
Justin Edwards▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	4	✗
Justin Edwards▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	7	✗
Justin Edwards▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	20%	0	✗
Justin Edwards▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✓
Justin Edwards▼	PRA	15.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	36	✗
Justin Edwards▼	P+R	15.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	32	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A14.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x5/1339%▼

R+A4.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 5x5/1339%▼

P+R14UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x6/1346%▼

PTS11UNDER24%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)6/1346%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST2UNDER13%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x6/1346%▼

3PM1UNDER13%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x6/1346%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

PRA13UNDER28%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x6/1346%▼

REB2UNDER42%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 5x4/1331%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

STL1UNDER39%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 4x6/1346%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

3PA4UNDER32%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x5/1339%▼

FTA1UNDER26%gbtAvoid (7/20)4/1331%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Justin Edwards

Rebounds UNDER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because the season average is only 1.7 rebounds and the last-20 is 1.9, both well below 3.5. Even with the recent minutes bump, the prop still sits far above his normal production and offers better under value than the more volatile scoring or combo markets.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
DeMar DeRozan	2	5	0	0%	0%
Doug McDermott	1	3	3	50%	75%
Precious Achiuwa	2	1	0	0%	0%
Daeqwon Plowden	1	1	3	100%	150%
Russell Westbrook	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 12.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 5.8 points and his last-20 is 7.0, both well below 12.5. The recent 12.6 average is a spike, and the prop metrics show very high variance with a 5.59 season standard deviation.

reboundsUNDER 3.572%HIGH

He averages just 1.7 rebounds for the season and 1.9 at home, versus a 3.5 line that is far above his normal range. Even his last-5 rebound average of 4.0 comes with strong variance and is not enough to fully justify the over.

assistsUNDER 2.561%MEDIUM

Season assists are 1.3 and last-20 is 1.6, both below the line. The recent 2.6 average is better, but the 1.28 season standard deviation signals a volatile outcome.

threesUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 0.98 made threes on the season and 1.2 at home, which is still below 1.5. Recent form is improved at 1.3 over the last 10, but not strong enough to override the season baseline.

blocksOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.2 blocks on the season, but his last-5 block rate is 0.6 and he has recorded at least one block in recent games. This is a low-confidence volatile stat, but the recent uptick gives the over a narrow edge.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.08 and the last-10 is 1.9, with a last-5 surge to 2.8. Given the all-around defensive production and his 0.9 steals per game season mark, he has a reasonable path to clearing 1.5.

praUNDER 15.564%MEDIUM

Season PRA components add up to a modest profile: 5.8 points, 1.7 rebounds and 1.3 assists. The recent spike is real, but the season baseline and head-to-head average of 4 points, 0.7 rebounds and 1 assist vs this opponent keep the under in play.

prUNDER 15.568%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds production is only 7.5 on the raw season averages, far below this line. The last-5 surge is not enough to fully offset the larger sample and the opponent history.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS