AI Model:

Maxime Raynaud▲

SAC · C

PPG

11.4

RPG

7.3

APG

1.3

L5 PPG

17.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.6

11.4

17.0

RPG+1.3

7.3

8.6

APG+0.7

1.3

2.0

SPG-0.5

0.5

0.0

BPG+0.7

0.5

1.2

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

16.5

DAL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs DAL: 22 pts

LAL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs LAL: 16 pts

PHX

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs PHX: 22 pts

NOP

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs NOP: 10 pts

CHI

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CHI: 26 pts

IND

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs IND: 18 pts

CHA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs CHA: 4 pts

LAC

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAC: 23 pts

UTA

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs UTA: 8 pts

SAS

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs SAS: 32 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5FANDUEL

72%

REB

UNDER 9.5FANDUEL

67%

AST

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL

79%

P+R

UNDER 25.5FANDUEL

68%

P+A

UNDER 17.5BETMGM

70%

R+A

UNDER 11.5BETMGM

74%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.4

15.6

RPG

8.6

9.6

APG

1.9

1.4

vs PHI (H2H)1 games

PPG

8.0

RPG

7.0

APG

0.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Donovan Clingan	3	22	95%	+23.3%	medium
Alperen Sengun	4	21	63%	+6.3%	medium
Wendell Carter Jr.	2	16	40%	-16.7%	low
Jay Huff	2	16	43%

Raynaud's recent minutes spike keeps his upside intact, but the market is pricing in a big scoring night

Maxime Raynaud’s form is clearly up: his last 5 games are 17.0 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and 2.0 APG across 32.0 MPG, well above his season marks of 11.4 PPG, 7.3 RPG, and 1.3 APG. That said, the recent scoring surge is running far ahead of his season baseline, and his single game vs this opponent was only 8 points in 19 minutes. Sacramento is also getting a starting center workload, but the current market on points and PRA is sitting well above his season mean, so regression risk is real.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.0(↑ from 11.4)

RPG

8.6(↑ from 7.3)

APG

2.0(↑ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is provided. The opponent profile shows a 116.03 defensive rating and 100 pace, with 0.153 scoring suppression and -0.132 three suppression, which does not point to a strong reason to chase his scoring over.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Maxime Raynaud▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	40%	30	✗
Maxime Raynaud▼	Rebounds	9.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	4	✓
Maxime Raynaud▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	79%HIGH	2/2	80%	2	✓
Maxime Raynaud▼	P+R	25.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	34	✗
Maxime Raynaud▼	P+A	17.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	40%	32	✗
Maxime Raynaud▼	R+A	11.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	1/2	40%	6	✓
Maxime Raynaud▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS16.5UNDER37%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA27.5UNDER6%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x12/2060%▼

P+R26OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)11/2055%▼

REB8.5OVER2%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.087▼

P+A19UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

R+A10.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Maxime Raynaud

Assists UNDER 2.5HIGH

This is the cleanest numbers-based under: his season mean is 1.26 APG and even his recent mean is 1.8 APG, both well below 2.5. The market is asking for a meaningful playmaking jump that isn’t supported by his season-long distribution or his role data.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Adem Bona	2	7	2	0%	0%
Dominick Barlow	2	5	4	40%	40%
Andre Drummond	2	4	0	0%	0%
VJ Edgecombe	2	1	4	40%	40%
Quentin Grimes	1	1	4	40%	40%

pointsUNDER 16.572%HIGH

His season mean is 11.4 PPG and his adjusted mean in value data is 13.4, both below 16.5. The recent 17.0 PPG last 5 is strong, but it is a clear step up from the season baseline and the lone vs-opponent game was just 8 points.

reboundsUNDER 9.567%MEDIUM

He averages 7.3 RPG on the season and 8.8 RPG over the last 5, still short of 9.5. The rebound profile is solid, but the current line is above both season and recent means.

assistsUNDER 2.579%HIGH

His season mean is only 1.26 APG and his recent mean is 1.8 APG, both below 2.5. Even with more minutes, this is a high number for his playmaking role.

prUNDER 25.568%MEDIUM

Season points plus rebounds totals roughly 18.7, and even recent form is around 25.6 using last 5 marks. Because the combined line is elevated and combo props are higher variance, the under is the safer side.

paUNDER 17.570%HIGH

His season points plus assists profile is only 12.7, and recent form is 19.0, which is inflated by the scoring spike. The line is sitting above his normal output and carries extra combo volatility.

raUNDER 11.574%HIGH

He averages 8.6 RA on the season and 10.4 over the last 5, still below 11.5 in both cases. Assist volume is too modest to make this a comfortable over.

blocksOVER 0.560%MEDIUM

He averages 0.5 blocks per game on the season and 1.2 over the last 5, with 1.0 over the last 10. This is the clearest positive-category play, though the standard deviation still keeps confidence moderate.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS