Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anfernee Simons | 3 | 13 | 71% | +4.9% | medium |
| Duncan Robinson | 4 | 10 | 75% | +4.9% | medium |
| Payton Pritchard | 4 | 10 | 25% | -20.1% | medium |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 3 | 10 | 69% |
Quentin Grimes has been in strong form lately, with his last 5 games up to 21.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, and 2.8 APG while playing 33.4 MPG. That surge is well above his season averages of 13.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, and 3.4 APG, so some regression risk is in play despite the recent scoring burst. The matchup environment is not especially friendly for a big scoring ceiling, as the opponent profile shows a 120.73 defensive rating and 1.226 scoring suppression. His season-to-recent split also suggests the safest angle is on unders at inflated scoring and playmaking lines rather than chasing the hot streak.
The opponent data shows a 120.73 defensive rating, 100 pace, 1.226 scoring suppression, and 1.37 three suppression, which is not a great setup for chasing an efficient scoring game. key_defenders data is present, but the minutes listed are very small overall, so there is no single clear defensive assignment edge to build around.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quentin Grimes▼ | Points | 21.5 | UNDER | 86%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% | 27 | ✗ |
Quentin Grimes▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 5 | ✗ |
Quentin Grimes▼ | Assists | 4.5 | UNDER | 80%HIGH | 1/2 | 90% | 7 | ✗ |
Quentin Grimes▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 90% | 3 | ✗ |
Quentin Grimes▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
Quentin Grimes▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 84%HIGH | — | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Quentin Grimes▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 0 | ✓ |
Quentin Grimes▼ | Turnovers | 2 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
Quentin Grimes▼ | PRA | 31.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 39 | ✗ |
Quentin Grimes▼ | P+A | 26.5 | UNDER | 71%HIGH | 1/2 | 70% | 34 | ✗ |
This is the cleanest play because the season mean is 13.68 points, the last 20 is 14.0, and the value data repeatedly shows a strong UNDER edge at 21.5. The recent 21.6 PPG surge is real, but it is a classic regression spot against a defense with scoring suppression built into the data.
| medium |
| Dyson Daniels | 4 | 10 | 68% | +18.5% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daeqwon Plowden | 1 | 3 | 5 | 100% | 125% |
| Doug McDermott | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| DeMar DeRozan | 1 | 2 | 6 | 100% | 100% |
| Russell Westbrook | 1 | 1 | 4 | 100% | 150% |
| Malik Monk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 13.68 points, and the value data shows a strong UNDER lean at this exact 21.5 line. The last 5 at 21.6 is hot, but that is well above season and last 20 production, so regression risk is high.
He averages 3.69 rebounds for the season and 3.8 over the last 5, which sits near the line and makes this a modest edge spot. With standard deviation at 2.21, the outcome range is wide, so confidence should stay moderate.
His season mean is 3.37 assists and recent mean is 2.5, both below 4.5. Value data also supports the UNDER, and his recent assist volume has not matched the market number.
He averages 1.77 made threes on the season and 1.0 in the last 5, both below this line. The recent dip in made threes makes the UNDER the more conservative side.
He averages 0.9 steals on the season and 1.4 over the last 5, so he has clear meaningful volume here. The stat is volatile, but his recent form supports a slight OVER lean.
He averages just 0.4 blocks per game on the season and 0.4 over the last 5. That is below the 0.5 threshold, making the UNDER the clear side.
His season stocks average is 1.29, and the last 20 is 0.9, both under 1.5. The last 5 jumped to 1.8, but that is a short-run spike versus a lower baseline.
His last 10 turnovers are 1.9 and last 20 are 1.6, so he sits near but mostly below 2.0. This is a mild UNDER rather than a strong play.
His season PRA profile is 21.0 using the provided means, far below 31.5, and the combo prop adds variance. Even with recent scoring spikes, this number is elevated relative to his baseline.
His season points-plus-assists baseline is 17.07, and recent points-plus-assists has not consistently supported a 26.5 line. Combo variance is a concern, but the season level still points under.