AI Model:

Quentin Grimes▲

PHI · SG

PPG

13.7

RPG

3.7

APG

3.4

L5 PPG

21.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+7.9

13.7

21.6

RPG+0.1

3.7

3.8

APG-0.6

3.4

2.8

SPG+0.5

0.9

1.4

BPG0.0

0.4

UNDER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

21.5

BOS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs BOS: 5 pts

SAS

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs SAS: 2 pts

UTA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs UTA: 16 pts

ATL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ATL: 26 pts

CLE

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs CLE: 17 pts

MEM

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs MEM: 23 pts

DET

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DET: 14 pts

BKN

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs BKN: 28 pts

POR

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs POR: 31 pts

DEN

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs DEN: 12 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 21.5FANDUEL

86%

REB

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

58%

AST

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

80%

3PM

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL

72%

STL

OVER 0.5

55%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

84%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

UNDER 2

57%

PRA

UNDER 31.5FANDUEL

68%

P+A

UNDER 26.5FANDUEL

71%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.9

12.8

RPG

3.9

2.8

APG

1.8

3.2

vs SAC (H2H)4 games

PPG

12.8

RPG

4.5

APG

2.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Anfernee Simons	3	13	71%	+4.9%	medium
Duncan Robinson	4	10	75%	+4.9%	medium
Payton Pritchard	4	10	25%	-20.1%	medium
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	3	10	69%

Grimes is trending up, but the market still leans too high on his scoring

Quentin Grimes has been in strong form lately, with his last 5 games up to 21.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, and 2.8 APG while playing 33.4 MPG. That surge is well above his season averages of 13.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, and 3.4 APG, so some regression risk is in play despite the recent scoring burst. The matchup environment is not especially friendly for a big scoring ceiling, as the opponent profile shows a 120.73 defensive rating and 1.226 scoring suppression. His season-to-recent split also suggests the safest angle is on unders at inflated scoring and playmaking lines rather than chasing the hot streak.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.6(↑ from 13.7)

RPG

3.8(→ from 3.7)

APG

2.8(↓ from 3.4)

Stocks

1.8(↑ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

The opponent data shows a 120.73 defensive rating, 100 pace, 1.226 scoring suppression, and 1.37 three suppression, which is not a great setup for chasing an efficient scoring game. key_defenders data is present, but the minutes listed are very small overall, so there is no single clear defensive assignment edge to build around.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Quentin Grimes▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	86%HIGH	1/2	60%	27	✗
Quentin Grimes▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	5	✗
Quentin Grimes▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	1/2	90%	7	✗
Quentin Grimes▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	90%	3	✗
Quentin Grimes▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✗
Quentin Grimes▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Quentin Grimes▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Quentin Grimes▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Quentin Grimes▼	PRA	31.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	39	✗
Quentin Grimes▼	P+A	26.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	1/2	70%	34	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA13.5UNDER14%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)15/2075%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.482; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

P+A18UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 6x8/2040%▼

PTS13.5UNDER31%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x10/2050%▼

3PA4UNDER39%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

R+A6.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x8/2040%▼

REB4UNDER34%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

AST2UNDER14%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

3PM1UNDER2%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

FTA2.5UNDER15%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 6x10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTM2UNDER38%gbtAvoid (6/20)UNDER 6x8/2040%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Quentin Grimes

Points UNDER 21.5HIGH

This is the cleanest play because the season mean is 13.68 points, the last 20 is 14.0, and the value data repeatedly shows a strong UNDER edge at 21.5. The recent 21.6 PPG surge is real, but it is a classic regression spot against a defense with scoring suppression built into the data.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Daeqwon Plowden	1	3	5	100%	125%
Doug McDermott	1	2	0	0%	0%
DeMar DeRozan	1	2	6	100%	100%
Russell Westbrook	1	1	4	100%	150%
Malik Monk	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 21.586%HIGH

His season mean is 13.68 points, and the value data shows a strong UNDER lean at this exact 21.5 line. The last 5 at 21.6 is hot, but that is well above season and last 20 production, so regression risk is high.

reboundsUNDER 3.558%MEDIUM

He averages 3.69 rebounds for the season and 3.8 over the last 5, which sits near the line and makes this a modest edge spot. With standard deviation at 2.21, the outcome range is wide, so confidence should stay moderate.

assistsUNDER 4.580%HIGH

His season mean is 3.37 assists and recent mean is 2.5, both below 4.5. Value data also supports the UNDER, and his recent assist volume has not matched the market number.

threesUNDER 2.572%HIGH

He averages 1.77 made threes on the season and 1.0 in the last 5, both below this line. The recent dip in made threes makes the UNDER the more conservative side.

stealsOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals on the season and 1.4 over the last 5, so he has clear meaningful volume here. The stat is volatile, but his recent form supports a slight OVER lean.

blocksUNDER 0.584%HIGH

He averages just 0.4 blocks per game on the season and 0.4 over the last 5. That is below the 0.5 threshold, making the UNDER the clear side.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.29, and the last 20 is 0.9, both under 1.5. The last 5 jumped to 1.8, but that is a short-run spike versus a lower baseline.

turnoversUNDER 257%MEDIUM

His last 10 turnovers are 1.9 and last 20 are 1.6, so he sits near but mostly below 2.0. This is a mild UNDER rather than a strong play.

praUNDER 31.568%MEDIUM

His season PRA profile is 21.0 using the provided means, far below 31.5, and the combo prop adds variance. Even with recent scoring spikes, this number is elevated relative to his baseline.

paUNDER 26.571%HIGH

His season points-plus-assists baseline is 17.07, and recent points-plus-assists has not consistently supported a 26.5 line. Combo variance is a concern, but the season level still points under.

timelineUNDER 21.5 PTS