AI Model:

Amen Thompson▲

HOU · PG

PPG

17.9

RPG

7.8

APG

5.2

L5 PPG

21.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.5

17.9

21.4

RPG+0.8

7.8

8.6

APG+0.2

5.2

5.4

SPG-0.7

1.5

0.8

BPG-0.2

0.6

0.4

UNDER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

18.5

MIA

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs MIA: 20 pts

WAS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs WAS: 22 pts

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 18 pts

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 26 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 23 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 23 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 16 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 23 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 19 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 26 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 18.5FANDUEL

78%

REB

OVER 7.5FANDUEL

66%

AST

UNDER 5.5FANDUEL

60%

3PM

UNDER 0.5

84%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

62%

BLK

OVER 0.5FANDUEL

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2

64%

OVER 2.5

61%

P+R

OVER 26.5FANDUEL

57%

P+A

UNDER 24.5FANDUEL

63%

OVER 0.5

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.6

15.9

RPG

7.6

8.5

APG

5.3

4.6

vs ATL (H2H)4 games

PPG

8.5

RPG

6.3

APG

2.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jamal Murray	4	21	50%	-12.6%	medium
De'Aaron Fox	3	19	60%	-2.6%	medium
Austin Reaves	3	15	28%	-30.4%	medium
Jalen Brunson	2	15	11%

Amen Thompson carries strong multi-category momentum, but scoring and combo lines are priced near his recent peak

Amen Thompson is trending up overall, with his last 5 games jumping to 21.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and 5.4 APG on 38.4 MPG versus season marks of 17.9, 7.8, and 5.2. The home split is solid at 18.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG, and 5.3 APG, but his versus-opponent sample is much lower at 8.5 PPG, 6.25 RPG, and 2.75 APG across 4 games. Atlanta’s defense context is mixed: the team allows a 116.61 def rating, but the matchup data also shows a 0.285 scoring suppression and -0.239 three suppression, which keeps upside in check. With no specific defender matchup data, the cleanest edge comes from selective unders on inflated scoring-combo markets rather than chasing the hot streak.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.4(↑ from 17.9)

RPG

8.6(↑ from 7.8)

APG

5.4(→ from 5.2)

Stocks

1.2(↓ from 2.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. The opponent context is mixed: the defense owns a 116.61 rating and the matchup data shows 0.285 scoring suppression plus -0.239 three suppression, while his head-to-head sample is only 8.5 PPG, 6.25 RPG, and 2.75 APG in 4 games.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Amen Thompson▼	Points	18.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	20%	14	✓
Amen Thompson▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	7	✗
Amen Thompson▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	4	✓
Amen Thompson▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	—	60%	0	✓
Amen Thompson▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	1	✓
Amen Thompson▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
Amen Thompson▼	STL+BLK	2	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Amen Thompson▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	40%	1	✗
Amen Thompson▼	P+R	26.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	21	✗
Amen Thompson▼	P+A	24.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	18	✓
Amen Thompson▼	Double-Double	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PTS16.5UNDER8%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 4x16/2080%▼

REB7.5OVER12%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)12/2060%▼

STL1.5UNDER28%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

PRA30.5UNDER15%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)12/2060%▼

P+R28UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

AST4.5UNDER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)11/2055%▼

R+A13.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A25UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 8x7/2035%▼

FTM4UNDER32%gbtAvoid (7/20)7/2035%▼

FTA4UNDER14%gbtAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Amen Thompson

Points UNDER 18.5HIGH

This is the strongest value position in the dataset, with the UNDER showing a 19.1% edge and 35.82 EV per 100 at FanDuel. His season mean is 17.94 points, and the market line of 18.5 is above that baseline despite a recent hot stretch.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
CJ McCollum	2	9	11	50%	63%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	2	4	5	33%	50%
Dyson Daniels	2	2	0	0%	0%
Christian Koloko	1	2	0	0%	0%
Corey Kispert	2	1	5	67%	83%

pointsUNDER 18.578%HIGH

His season mean is 17.94 points and the value data shows the UNDER at 18.5 has a strong edge, including a 19.1% edge and 35.82 EV per 100 at FanDuel. The recent surge to 21.6 over the last 10 is above season pace, so this is more of a regression play than a form fade.

reboundsOVER 7.566%MEDIUM

He averages 7.8 rebounds on the season and 9.0 over the last 10, with home/away context staying strong enough to support 8+ boards. The value data also favors the OVER at 7.5, with a 7.8% to 9.0% edge depending on book.

assistsUNDER 5.560%MEDIUM

His season mean is 5.23 assists, and the recent 5.3 is basically in line rather than clearly above it. With the line at 5.5 and the value data showing only modest UNDER edges, this is a conservative lean to the lower side.

threesUNDER 0.584%HIGH

He averages only 0.35 made threes per game this season and 0.5 over the last 5, while his season three-point percentage is just 0.219. The projected 0.5 line is still high relative to his profile, and the under is supported by his low-volume perimeter production.

stealsUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

He averages 1.5 steals on the season, but the last 5 have fallen to 0.8, and the recent 10 sit at 1.4. At a 1.5 line, that recent dip makes the UNDER the safer call.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 blocks per game on the season and 0.3 over the last 10, which keeps this close to a coin flip. The season baseline is above the line, but variance is high, so confidence stays modest.

stocksUNDER 264%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.06, but the last 5 are only 1.2 and the last 10 are 1.7. That recent drop below the season mean makes 2.0 a slight UNDER lean.

turnoversOVER 2.561%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rates are elevated at 2.6 over the last 5 and 2.1 over the last 10, and recent game logs include multiple 4-turnover outings. A projected 2.5 line is reasonable to attack on the OVER side given the current usage.

prOVER 26.557%MEDIUM

His season PR baseline is 25.74 using 17.9 points and 7.8 rebounds, while the last 10 combination is much higher. Still, combo props carry extra variance, so this is only a light lean even with recent form.

paUNDER 24.563%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists baseline is 23.12, and his vs-opponent averages of 8.5 points and 2.75 assists show this matchup has historically muted his output. The line sits above that season mean, making the UNDER the cleaner side.

double_doubleOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He has double-double potential because both points and rebounds are near double digits in recent games, including 26 points and 11 rebounds in his most recent outing. This is still volatile, so confidence remains modest.

timelineUNDER 18.5 PTS