Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 4 | 21 | 50% | -12.6% | medium |
| De'Aaron Fox | 3 | 19 | 60% | -2.6% | medium |
| Austin Reaves | 3 | 15 | 28% | -30.4% | medium |
| Jalen Brunson | 2 | 15 | 11% |
Amen Thompson is trending up overall, with his last 5 games jumping to 21.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and 5.4 APG on 38.4 MPG versus season marks of 17.9, 7.8, and 5.2. The home split is solid at 18.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG, and 5.3 APG, but his versus-opponent sample is much lower at 8.5 PPG, 6.25 RPG, and 2.75 APG across 4 games. Atlanta’s defense context is mixed: the team allows a 116.61 def rating, but the matchup data also shows a 0.285 scoring suppression and -0.239 three suppression, which keeps upside in check. With no specific defender matchup data, the cleanest edge comes from selective unders on inflated scoring-combo markets rather than chasing the hot streak.
No specific defender matchup data. The opponent context is mixed: the defense owns a 116.61 rating and the matchup data shows 0.285 scoring suppression plus -0.239 three suppression, while his head-to-head sample is only 8.5 PPG, 6.25 RPG, and 2.75 APG in 4 games.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Amen Thompson▼ | Points | 18.5 | UNDER | 78%HIGH | 1/2 | 20% | 14 | ✓ |
Amen Thompson▼ | Rebounds | 7.5 | OVER | 66%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 7 | ✗ |
Amen Thompson▼ | Assists | 5.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 4 | ✓ |
Amen Thompson▼ | 3PM | 0.5 | UNDER | 84%HIGH | — | 60% | 0 | ✓ |
Amen Thompson▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
Amen Thompson▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 0 | ✗ |
Amen Thompson▼ | STL+BLK | 2 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
Amen Thompson▼ | Turnovers | 2.5 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 1 | ✗ |
Amen Thompson▼ | P+R | 26.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 21 | ✗ |
Amen Thompson▼ | P+A | 24.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 18 | ✓ |
Amen Thompson▼ | Double-Double | 0.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | — | — | — | — |
This is the strongest value position in the dataset, with the UNDER showing a 19.1% edge and 35.82 EV per 100 at FanDuel. His season mean is 17.94 points, and the market line of 18.5 is above that baseline despite a recent hot stretch.
| low |
| Cooper Flagg | 4 | 14 | 31% | -27.6% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ McCollum | 2 | 9 | 11 | 50% | 63% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 2 | 4 | 5 | 33% | 50% |
| Dyson Daniels | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Christian Koloko | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Corey Kispert | 2 | 1 | 5 | 67% | 83% |
His season mean is 17.94 points and the value data shows the UNDER at 18.5 has a strong edge, including a 19.1% edge and 35.82 EV per 100 at FanDuel. The recent surge to 21.6 over the last 10 is above season pace, so this is more of a regression play than a form fade.
He averages 7.8 rebounds on the season and 9.0 over the last 10, with home/away context staying strong enough to support 8+ boards. The value data also favors the OVER at 7.5, with a 7.8% to 9.0% edge depending on book.
His season mean is 5.23 assists, and the recent 5.3 is basically in line rather than clearly above it. With the line at 5.5 and the value data showing only modest UNDER edges, this is a conservative lean to the lower side.
He averages only 0.35 made threes per game this season and 0.5 over the last 5, while his season three-point percentage is just 0.219. The projected 0.5 line is still high relative to his profile, and the under is supported by his low-volume perimeter production.
He averages 1.5 steals on the season, but the last 5 have fallen to 0.8, and the recent 10 sit at 1.4. At a 1.5 line, that recent dip makes the UNDER the safer call.
He averages 0.6 blocks per game on the season and 0.3 over the last 10, which keeps this close to a coin flip. The season baseline is above the line, but variance is high, so confidence stays modest.
His season stocks average is 2.06, but the last 5 are only 1.2 and the last 10 are 1.7. That recent drop below the season mean makes 2.0 a slight UNDER lean.
His recent turnover rates are elevated at 2.6 over the last 5 and 2.1 over the last 10, and recent game logs include multiple 4-turnover outings. A projected 2.5 line is reasonable to attack on the OVER side given the current usage.
His season PR baseline is 25.74 using 17.9 points and 7.8 rebounds, while the last 10 combination is much higher. Still, combo props carry extra variance, so this is only a light lean even with recent form.
His season points-plus-assists baseline is 23.12, and his vs-opponent averages of 8.5 points and 2.75 assists show this matchup has historically muted his output. The line sits above that season mean, making the UNDER the cleaner side.
He has double-double potential because both points and rebounds are near double digits in recent games, including 26 points and 11 rebounds in his most recent outing. This is still volatile, so confidence remains modest.