AI Model:

CJ McCollum▲

ATL · PG

PPG

18.6

RPG

3.4

APG

3.7

L5 PPG

18.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.6

18.6

18.0

RPG+0.2

3.4

3.6

APG-0.1

3.7

3.6

SPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

BPG0.0

0.4

UNDER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

18.5

WAS

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs WAS: 8 pts

WAS

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs WAS: 25 pts

POR

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs POR: 19 pts

MIL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MIL: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs PHI: 17 pts

DAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DAL: 13 pts

BKN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BKN: 14 pts

MIL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIL: 30 pts

ORL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ORL: 9 pts

DAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DAL: 24 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 18.5STAKE

62%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

67%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

56%

3PM

UNDER 2.5

58%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

59%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

74%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

UNDER 2

57%

PRA

UNDER 22.5STAKE

54%

P+A

UNDER 22.5STAKE

55%

P+R

UNDER 22.5STAKE

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.5

23.4

RPG

3.6

2.6

APG

3.2

4.9

vs HOU (H2H)17 games

PPG

20.4

RPG

4.3

APG

4.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
AJ Green	6	27	56%	-7.8%	medium
Max Christie	4	16	43%	-16.7%	medium
Amen Thompson	3	14	68%	+19.0%	medium
Sam Hauser	5	14	100%

McCollum’s scoring is steady, but the road matchup keeps him in a narrow range

CJ McCollum is producing 18.6 PPG on the season and has been close to that level recently with 18.0 over his last 5 and 17.7 over his last 10. His away scoring is notably stronger than at home at 23.4 PPG vs 16.5, and tonight he is on the road. The opponent profile is not especially restrictive overall, but his recent scoring has been mixed, so the clearest edge comes from his low-end home/away split context and the market set near his season mean rather than his hotter road number.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.0(→ from 18.6)

APG

3.6(→ from 3.7)

RPG

3.6(→ from 3.4)

Key Matchup

The opponent has a 109.7 defensive rating, a pace of 100, and a scoring suppression mark of -1.292, while three-point suppression is -0.621. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed names, so the matchup read is driven by the team-level defensive context and McCollum’s own splits.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Actual	Result
CJ McCollum▼	Points	18.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	60%	17	✓
CJ McCollum▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	70%	2	✓
CJ McCollum▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	50%	2	✗
CJ McCollum▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	90%	2	✓
CJ McCollum▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	80%	1	✓
CJ McCollum▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	50%	3	✗
CJ McCollum▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	60%	4	✗
CJ McCollum▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	80%	3	✗
CJ McCollum▼	PRA	22.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	30%	21	✓
CJ McCollum▼	P+A	22.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	40%	19	✓
CJ McCollum▼	P+R	22.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	70%	19	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A23OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

PRA27.5UNDER20%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PTS17.5UNDER22%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST5UNDER17%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x7/2035%▼

3PA7UNDER38%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)5/2025%▼

FTA3.5UNDER27%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R21.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

REB2.5UNDER15%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)10/2050%▼

3PM2UNDER4%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x6/2030%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

R+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

FTM2UNDER24%gbtAvoid (6/20)8/2040%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

CJ McCollum

Rebounds UNDER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest numerical edge because his season average is 3.4 rebounds and his last 10 is 3.3, both below the line. The market is asking for a number slightly above his baseline, and unlike points or assists, rebounds do not have a strong recent upside signal here.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Amen Thompson	3	14	19	64%	68%
Josh Okogie	3	7	3	25%	38%
Reed Sheppard	3	5	3	17%	25%
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	2	2	25%	25%
Aaron Holiday	2	2	10	75%	113%

pointsUNDER 18.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 18.6, but the last 10 is 17.7 and the last 5 is 18.0, so this line is right on the edge. With over bias in mind and a modestly volatile scoring profile, the under is the safer side.

reboundsUNDER 3.567%MEDIUM

He averages 3.4 rebounds on the season and 3.3 over the last 10, both just below the 3.5 line. His home rebound average is 3.6, but the overall profile still leans slightly below this number.

assistsOVER 3.556%MEDIUM

He averages 3.7 assists for the season and 4.3 over the last 10, with 4.9 in away games. The recent trend supports a modest over lean, though the variance keeps confidence controlled.

threesUNDER 2.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.48 threes made, essentially right at the 2.5 threshold, while the last 10 is 1.7. Given the recent dip and the high variance in his three-point output, the under is the better lean.

stealsOVER 0.559%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, which clears a 0.5 line comfortably. The main caution is volatility, but the raw rate supports the over.

blocksUNDER 0.574%HIGH

He averages only 0.4 blocks per game on the season and 0.5 over the last 10, so this is a low-frequency stat for him. The under is the strongest block-side angle.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks rate is 1.17, and recent form is 1.4, still below a 1.5 threshold. Since this is a combined category and his block frequency is limited, the under remains preferable.

turnoversUNDER 257%MEDIUM

He is at 1.9 turnovers over his last 10 and 2.0 over his last 20, which sits around the key number. With no clear upward pressure, the under is slightly more attractive.

praUNDER 22.554%MEDIUM

His season average for points plus rebounds plus assists is 25.7, but combo props carry extra variance and his recent scoring has been below that season level. This line is close enough that the safer side is under.

paUNDER 22.555%MEDIUM

He averages 22.3 points plus assists on the season and 22.0 over the last 10, which is right around the line. With combo volatility and no strong recent push above it, under is the lean.

prUNDER 22.563%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds average is 22.0, and the last 10 sits at 21.0, both below 22.5. That makes the under the cleaner play among his combo options.

timelineUNDER 18.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

McCollum’s scoring is steady, but the road matchup keeps him in a narrow range

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 18.5 PTS