Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | 3 | 7 | 40% | +7.5% | medium |
| Jerami Grant | 1 | 4 | 88% | +42.5% | low |
| LeBron James | 3 | 4 | 63% | +17.5% | medium |
| Kon Knueppel | 2 | 4 | 150% |
Dorian Finney-Smith is averaging just 3.2 PPG, 2.7 RPG, and 1.0 APG on the season, with his recent stretch only nudging up to 3.8 points and 20.3 minutes per game. His last 5 shows some activity in peripherals, but the scoring baseline remains very low and his season shooting has been poor at 31.9% FG and 26.7% from three. The matchup data is mixed: Houston’s opponent profile shows a 116.61 defensive rating and 100 pace, while Finney-Smith’s historical success versus this opponent is based on much heavier minutes than he’s getting now. Given the low volume and moderate variance, unders are the safer angle.
The opponent profile shows a 116.61 defensive rating and a 100 pace, which does not suggest an especially slow, low-event environment. He also has 13 games of historical success versus this opponent at 10.3 PPG and 6.3 RPG, but that came with 31.7 MPG, far above his current workload.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dorian Finney-Smith▼ | Points | 3.5 | UNDER | 78%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% |
Dorian Finney-Smith▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% |
Dorian Finney-Smith▼ | Assists | 1 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% |
Dorian Finney-Smith▼ | 3PM | 0.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 80% |
Dorian Finney-Smith▼ | STL+BLK | 0.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | — | 60% |
His season scoring average is only 3.2 points, and the recent 4.4 PPG is not enough to override the full-season baseline. With inefficient shooting and a rotation-level role, the under is the most stable angle.
| low |
| Bam Adebayo | 2 | 4 | 100% | +67.5% | low |
Season mean is only 3.2 points, and even with the last 5 at 4.4, the scoring role is still light. His shooting has been inefficient all year at 31.9% FG, which supports an under at a low 3.5 line.
He’s at 2.7 RPG on the season and 3.1 over the last 10, with recent minutes up to 20.3. The edge is small, so this is only a modest over lean.
His season average is 1.0 APG, but the last 10 is only 1.5 and the away split drops to 0.9. With a low-usage role and high variance, the under is the safer side at a 1.0 line.
He averages 0.74 made threes per game and 1.0 over the last 10, so a 0.5 line is beatable. The recent 20.3 minutes per game also supports a small over lean.
His season stocks average is 0.68 and he’s at 0.9 over the last 10, which is enough to support a low line. The home split is stronger at 1.0 stocks compared with 0.5 away.