AI Model:

Jabari Smith Jr.▲

HOU · SF

PPG

15.6

RPG

6.8

APG

1.8

L5 PPG

18.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.4

15.6

18.0

RPG-1.0

6.8

5.8

APG+0.4

1.8

2.2

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG-0.5

0.9

0.4

OVER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

14.5

UTA

2026-02-23

2026-02-23 vs UTA: 31 pts

SAC

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs SAC: 12 pts

ORL

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs ORL: 13 pts

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 3 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 17 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 23 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 11 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 16 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 22 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 18 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 14.5STAKE

62%

REB

UNDER 7.5STAKE

68%

AST

UNDER 2.5STAKE

72%

3PM

UNDER 2.5

60%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

57%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

54%

UNDER 1.5

63%

P+R

UNDER 21.5STAKE

56%

P+A

OVER 16.5STAKE

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.9

16.5

RPG

7.1

5.8

APG

2.0

1.5

vs ATL (H2H)6 games

PPG

18.7

RPG

8.7

APG

1.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Cameron Johnson	4	17	42%	-12.1%	medium
Julius Randle	2	15	42%	-6.9%	low
Trey Murphy III	3	11	67%	+10.2%	medium
Brandon Ingram	2	11	57%

Jabari Smith Jr. brings steady two-way volume with modest scoring upside

Jabari Smith Jr. is trending up, with 16.6 PPG over his last 10 and 18.0 PPG over his last 5 versus a 15.6 season average, but his recent scoring is still close enough to baseline that regression risk remains. He’s averaging 34.9 MPG for the season and 34.7 over the last 10, so the minutes are stable, and his home split is slightly better at 16.9 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 1.9 stocks. Against this opponent, he has averaged 18.7 PPG and 8.7 RPG across 6 games, which is supportive for production. The main caution is that his recent rebound rate is below season level at 5.7 RPG, and several of his combo props carry higher variance.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.0(↑ from 15.6)

RPG

5.8(↓ from 6.8)

APG

2.2(↑ from 1.8)

Stocks

1.2(↓ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

The data shows no specific defender matchup data, so there is no defender-level edge to isolate. Team-level context is favorable enough to note that he has averaged 18.7 PPG and 8.7 RPG in 6 games against this opponent, while the opponent’s scoring suppression is listed at 0.285.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Points	14.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	23	✓
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Rebounds	7.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	9	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	2/2	60%	2	✓
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✓
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	0	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	Turnovers	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	80%	2	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	P+R	21.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	32	✗
Jabari Smith Jr.▼	P+A	16.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	25	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA22.5OVER40%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 7x14/2070%+17.4% edgeConfidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PTS13.5UNDER3%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x13/2065%▼

P+R23.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

REB6.5OVER7%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.142▼

3PM1.5OVER13%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 7x14/2070%+6.8% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+A19UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

R+A9UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)6/2030%▼

Featured Pick

Jabari Smith Jr.

Rebounds UNDER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest play because his season rebound average is 6.8 and his last 10 is 5.7, both below the line. Even with a solid home split of 7.1 RPG, the recent trend points down and gives the under the best combination of form and baseline support.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Onyeka Okongwu	1	4	0	0%	0%
Christian Koloko	1	2	2	33%	33%
Corey Kispert	2	2	0	0%	0%
Asa Newell	1	2	2	50%	50%
Zaccharie Risacher	1	2	2	50%	50%

pointsOVER 14.562%MEDIUM

His 15.6 season scoring average sits above 14.5, and he’s at 16.6 over the last 10 with 34.7 MPG recently. That said, the over is not a smash spot because his last 5 of 18.0 is a bit above season pace and the prop line is already modest.

reboundsUNDER 7.568%MEDIUM

He averages 6.8 rebounds for the season and 5.7 over the last 10, both below 7.5. His home rebound average is 7.1, but the recent trend is down, making the under the cleaner side.

assistsUNDER 2.572%HIGH

He’s at just 1.8 assists per game for the season and 2.0 over the last 10, which still sits below 2.5. His assist role is limited, and the season std of 1.24 suggests the line can spike, but the baseline still favors the under.

threesUNDER 2.560%MEDIUM

He averages 2.22 threes on the season and 2.0 over the last 10, so 2.5 is slightly above his typical output. The under is supported by his recent average and the fact that his last 5 of 2.4 is not enough to make the over compelling.

stealsOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals on the season and 0.8 over the last 10, so 0.5 is a low threshold. The variance is real, but the baseline volume supports one steal more often than not.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 blocks on the season and 0.7 over the last 10, both above the 0.5 line. The recent 0.4 over the last 5 is a mild warning, but the season profile still leans over.

stocksUNDER 1.554%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.75, but the last 5 is only 1.2 and the last 10 is 1.5 exactly. Given the volatility in this category and the recent dip, this is closer to a pass than an over.

turnoversUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He is at 1.2 turnovers over the last 20 and 1.3 over the last 10, well below a 1.5 line if projected from his usage. His recent 0.8 over the last 5 also supports a controlled turnover profile.

prUNDER 21.556%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds output is around 22.4 using 15.6 PPG and 6.8 RPG, but the recent rebound dip pulls this closer to the line. Because combo props add variance and the over bias warning applies, the under is the safer lean.

paOVER 16.555%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists is 17.4 using 15.6 PPG and 1.8 APG, which clears 16.5 by a narrow margin. The edge is not huge, but the line is slightly below his baseline combined output.

timelineOVER 14.5 PTS