Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Johnson | 4 | 17 | 42% | -12.1% | medium |
| Julius Randle | 2 | 15 | 42% | -6.9% | low |
| Trey Murphy III | 3 | 11 | 67% | +10.2% | medium |
| Brandon Ingram | 2 | 11 | 57% |
Jabari Smith Jr. is trending up, with 16.6 PPG over his last 10 and 18.0 PPG over his last 5 versus a 15.6 season average, but his recent scoring is still close enough to baseline that regression risk remains. He’s averaging 34.9 MPG for the season and 34.7 over the last 10, so the minutes are stable, and his home split is slightly better at 16.9 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 1.9 stocks. Against this opponent, he has averaged 18.7 PPG and 8.7 RPG across 6 games, which is supportive for production. The main caution is that his recent rebound rate is below season level at 5.7 RPG, and several of his combo props carry higher variance.
The data shows no specific defender matchup data, so there is no defender-level edge to isolate. Team-level context is favorable enough to note that he has averaged 18.7 PPG and 8.7 RPG in 6 games against this opponent, while the opponent’s scoring suppression is listed at 0.285.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jabari Smith Jr.▼ | Points | 14.5 | OVER | 62%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 23 | ✓ |
Jabari Smith Jr.▼ | Rebounds | 7.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 9 | ✗ |
Jabari Smith Jr.▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 2/2 | 60% | 2 | ✓ |
Jabari Smith Jr.▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 3 | ✗ |
Jabari Smith Jr.▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 2 | ✓ |
Jabari Smith Jr.▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
Jabari Smith Jr.▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 54%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 2 | ✗ |
Jabari Smith Jr.▼ | Turnovers | 1.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 2 | ✗ |
Jabari Smith Jr.▼ | P+R | 21.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 32 | ✗ |
Jabari Smith Jr.▼ | P+A | 16.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 25 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest play because his season rebound average is 6.8 and his last 10 is 5.7, both below the line. Even with a solid home split of 7.1 RPG, the recent trend points down and gives the under the best combination of form and baseline support.
| low |
| Ace Bailey | 4 | 10 | 29% | -16.8% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onyeka Okongwu | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Christian Koloko | 1 | 2 | 2 | 33% | 33% |
| Corey Kispert | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Asa Newell | 1 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 1 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 50% |
His 15.6 season scoring average sits above 14.5, and he’s at 16.6 over the last 10 with 34.7 MPG recently. That said, the over is not a smash spot because his last 5 of 18.0 is a bit above season pace and the prop line is already modest.
He averages 6.8 rebounds for the season and 5.7 over the last 10, both below 7.5. His home rebound average is 7.1, but the recent trend is down, making the under the cleaner side.
He’s at just 1.8 assists per game for the season and 2.0 over the last 10, which still sits below 2.5. His assist role is limited, and the season std of 1.24 suggests the line can spike, but the baseline still favors the under.
He averages 2.22 threes on the season and 2.0 over the last 10, so 2.5 is slightly above his typical output. The under is supported by his recent average and the fact that his last 5 of 2.4 is not enough to make the over compelling.
He averages 0.8 steals on the season and 0.8 over the last 10, so 0.5 is a low threshold. The variance is real, but the baseline volume supports one steal more often than not.
He averages 0.9 blocks on the season and 0.7 over the last 10, both above the 0.5 line. The recent 0.4 over the last 5 is a mild warning, but the season profile still leans over.
His season stocks average is 1.75, but the last 5 is only 1.2 and the last 10 is 1.5 exactly. Given the volatility in this category and the recent dip, this is closer to a pass than an over.
He is at 1.2 turnovers over the last 20 and 1.3 over the last 10, well below a 1.5 line if projected from his usage. His recent 0.8 over the last 5 also supports a controlled turnover profile.
His season points plus rebounds output is around 22.4 using 15.6 PPG and 6.8 RPG, but the recent rebound dip pulls this closer to the line. Because combo props add variance and the over bias warning applies, the under is the safer lean.
His season points plus assists is 17.4 using 15.6 PPG and 1.8 APG, which clears 16.5 by a narrow margin. The edge is not huge, but the line is slightly below his baseline combined output.