AI Model:

Jalen Johnson▼

ATL · PF

PPG

22.9

RPG

10.5

APG

8.1

L5 PPG

22.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.5

22.9

22.4

RPG-0.1

10.5

10.4

APG+2.1

8.1

10.2

SPG-0.1

1.3

1.2

BPG-0.1

0.5

0.4

UNDER 21.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

21.5

BKN

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs BKN: 26 pts

WAS

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs WAS: 5 pts

POR

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs POR: 8 pts

MIL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MIL: 20 pts

PHI

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs PHI: 35 pts

DAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DAL: 27 pts

BKN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BKN: 21 pts

MIL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIL: 23 pts

ORL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ORL: 24 pts

DAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DAL: 17 pts

Over 21.5

Under 21.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 21.5FANDUEL

64%

REB

OVER 9.5FANDUEL

56%

AST

UNDER 7.5FANDUEL

58%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

61%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

69%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

54%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

60%

P+R

OVER 31.5FANDUEL

52%

P+A

OVER 29.5FANDUEL

55%

OVER 0

68%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.2

24.1

RPG

10.8

10.7

APG

8.5

8.6

vs HOU (H2H)4 games

PPG

7.5

RPG

2.0

APG

1.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Dominick Barlow	4	36	33%	-15.9%	medium
Miles Bridges	3	29	40%	-9.2%	medium
OG Anunoby	3	24	40%	-15.9%	medium
Tobias Harris	3	22	46%

Jalen Johnson’s all-around floor stays strong, but the assist and rebound market leans safer than points

Jalen Johnson is producing at an elite all-around level with a season line of 22.9 PPG, 10.5 RPG, and 8.1 APG across 35.3 MPG. His recent form is still strong, but the trend is down from his season baseline, with last-10 scoring at 20.6 PPG and rebounds at 9.0 RPG while assists remain near his season mark at 7.9 APG. The matchup context is mixed: the Rockets have a 109.7 defensive rating and a pace of 100, and his prior head-to-head sample versus this opponent is very small and poor at 7.5 PPG in 17.25 MPG, so I would not lean aggressively into overs. The best market value is on his threes at 1.5, where his season 1.61 makes the line playable, but the stronger betting angle overall is the under on his points at the posted 21.5 line because the book is shading the under and his recent scoring has cooled.

Stat Trends

PPG

22.4(↓ from 22.9)

RPG

10.4(→ from 10.5)

APG

10.2(↑ from 8.1)

Key Matchup

The Rockets data provided shows a 109.7 defensive rating, pace of 100, scoring_suppression of -1.292, and three_suppression of -0.621. Jalen Johnson’s head-to-head history versus this opponent is poor at 7.5 PPG, 2.0 RPG, and 1.0 APG in 4 games, but that sample is small and dated, so it should be weighted lightly.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jalen Johnson▼	Points	21.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	14	✓
Jalen Johnson▼	Rebounds	9.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	5	✗
Jalen Johnson▼	Assists	7.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	3	✓
Jalen Johnson▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✓
Jalen Johnson▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	1	✓
Jalen Johnson▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	20%	0	✗
Jalen Johnson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✗
Jalen Johnson▼	P+R	31.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	19	✗
Jalen Johnson▼	P+A	29.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	17	✗
Jalen Johnson▼	Double-Double	0	OVER	68%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

3PM2UNDER33%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)4/1921%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA5UNDER34%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x7/1937%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

PRA41UNDER15%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x8/1942%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

P+R32UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 5x8/1942%▼

P+A30UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x8/1942%▼

PTS21UNDER17%gbt_pointsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 4x9/1947%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

REB10UNDER29%gbt_reboundsAvoid (7/20)OVER 4x8/1942%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

AST8UNDER9%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 4x8/1942%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

R+A17.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/1937%▼

STL1UNDER14%gbt_stealsAvoid (6/20)UNDER 8x5/1926%Confidence moved HIGH to LOW▼

FTM3UNDER20%gbtAvoid (6/20)9/1947%▼

FTA4UNDER16%gbtAvoid (6/20)9/1947%▼

Featured Pick

Jalen Johnson

Points UNDER 21.5MEDIUM

The season mean is 22.9, but his last-10 scoring has fallen to 20.6 and the trend is down. With FanDuel listing 21.5 and the value data favoring the under, this is the clearest conservative angle from the available numbers.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jabari Smith Jr.	1	7	6	50%	63%
Tari Eason	1	2	0	0%	0%
Kevin Durant	1	2	11	100%	110%
Josh Okogie	1	1	0	0%	0%
Alperen Sengun	1	0	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 21.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 22.87, but last-10 scoring is down to 20.6 and the recent trend is flagged down. The line is 21.5 at FanDuel, and the provided value data shows the under has positive edge at that number.

reboundsOVER 9.556%MEDIUM

He averages 10.45 rebounds per game on the season and 10.4 over the last 5, so 9.5 is below his core production. Confidence is only moderate because his last-10 rebounds are down to 9.0 and the historical variance is meaningful.

assistsUNDER 7.558%MEDIUM

His season assists are 8.13, but the last-10 mean is 7.9 and the value table shows the under has a positive edge at 7.5. The season baseline is only slightly above the line, so this is a thin but usable under.

threesOVER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.61 made threes per game on the season and 1.5 over the last 5, which keeps 1.5 reachable. The value props also show a positive edge on the over at this line.

stealsUNDER 1.569%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 1.3, which is below 1.5, and his last-10 is also 1.3. The line asks for a clear step above his normal output, so the under is the more conservative side.

blocksOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.5 blocks per game on the season and 0.4 over the last 5, so this is right on the threshold. Because the mean matches the line exactly, confidence stays modest.

stocksOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.79 and last-10 is 1.6, both above 1.5. This is a reasonable all-defense combo given the consistent steal production plus occasional blocks.

prOVER 31.552%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds baseline is strong enough to support the line, but combo props are higher variance. Because recent scoring has dipped while rebounds remain solid, this is playable but not a top-confidence look.

paOVER 29.555%MEDIUM

He combines 22.9 points with 8.1 assists on the season, which easily supports 29.5. The under has some appeal only if minutes or usage dip, but the season profile still points slightly over.

double_doubleOVER 068%MEDIUM

He has clear double-double potential with season averages of 22.9 points and 10.5 rebounds, and his recent games repeatedly show double-category production. This is more of a projection than a book line play.

timelineUNDER 21.5 PTS