Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Gobert | 4 | 20 | 71% | +19.9% | medium |
| Derik Queen | 4 | 19 | 57% | +5.6% | medium |
| Maxime Raynaud | 3 | 13 | 63% | +11.0% | medium |
| Jalen Duren | 2 | 11 | 63% |
Jock Landale’s season line is solid at 10.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG, and 1.6 APG, but the recent production has cooled sharply with just 5.4 PPG and 2.6 RPG over the last 5. His last 10 and last 20 samples still show a downshift from season levels, and his minutes have fallen from 22.1 season MPG to 16.7 over the last 10. Against this opponent, he has also underwhelmed historically with 6.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG, and 0.4 APG in 7 games, which keeps the ceiling in check. The most attractive angle is the value-adjusted points market where the low line is far below his season mean, but the recent role and head-to-head trend still make this a conservative profile overall.
He has 7 games of history against this opponent and is averaging just 6.1 PPG and 3.4 RPG in those meetings. Houston’s defense profile shows a 109.7 defensive rating and a 100 pace, with no specific defender matchup data to project beyond the listed key defenders.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jock Landale▼ | Points | 6.5 | OVER | 66%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 6 | ✗ |
Jock Landale▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 20% | 1 | ✗ |
Jock Landale▼ | Assists | 1.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 3 | ✓ |
Jock Landale▼ | 3PM | 0.5 | OVER | 53%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 0 | ✗ |
This is the clearest value on the board because the line sits well below his 10.7 season scoring average and his low-line market data shows a 12.8% edge. The caution is that his last 5 games and recent minutes are both down, so it’s playable but not a slam dunk.
| low |
| Ivica Zubac | 3 | 11 | 60% | +8.5% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alperen Sengun | 2 | 8 | 9 | 44% | 44% |
| Clint Capela | 2 | 5 | 4 | 100% | 100% |
| Kevin Durant | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Amen Thompson | 2 | 1 | 4 | 50% | 50% |
| Josh Okogie | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 10.7 PPG and his recent 10-game adjusted scoring still supports more than 6.5 despite the slump. Value data shows a 12.8% edge on the OVER at this line, but the last-5 drop to 5.4 PPG keeps confidence from getting too high.
He averages 5.8 RPG for the season and 4.3 RPG over the last 20, which clears 3.5 comfortably. The recent 2.6 RPG last 5 is a warning sign, so this is more of a moderate-confidence lean than a strong play.
Season average is 1.6 APG, and his last 5 is 1.8 APG, so the number is right around his baseline. The problem is variance, with a 1.27 season standard deviation and only 16.7 recent MPG.
He averages 1.1 made threes per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 20, which supports at least one make. Recent form is softer at 0.4 over the last 5, so this is only a slight lean.