Jonathan Kuminga▼

ATL · PF

PPG

12.8

RPG

6.4

APG

2.6

L5 PPG

12.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.4

12.8

12.4

RPG+1.2

6.4

7.6

APG-0.2

2.6

2.4

SPG+0.3

0.5

0.8

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

PHI

2025-12-04

2025-12-04 vs PHI: 9 pts

CLE

2025-12-06

2025-12-06 vs CLE: 4 pts

PHX

2025-12-18

2025-12-18 vs PHX: 2 pts

TOR

2026-01-20

2026-01-20 vs TOR: 20 pts

WAS

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs WAS: 27 pts

WAS

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs WAS: 17 pts

POR

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs POR: 20 pts

BKN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BKN: 2 pts

ORL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ORL: 7 pts

DAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DAL: 16 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5

88%

REB

UNDER 6.5

60%

AST

UNDER 2.5

58%

3PM

UNDER 1

64%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1

67%

OVER 2

56%

P+R

UNDER 19

62%

R+A

OVER 8.5

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

12.5

11.5

RPG

6.6

5.8

APG

2.2

2.5

vs HOU (H2H)13 games

PPG

10.7

RPG

3.5

APG

1.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Luka Dončić	1	8	63%	+12.6%	low
Aaron Gordon	2	7	78%	+9.9%	low
Josh Minott	2	6	70%	+14.3%	low
Christian Braun	2	5	63%

Kuminga’s scoring trend is cooling, and the matchup data points to a modest night

Jonathan Kuminga is averaging 12.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and 2.6 APG on the season, but his recent form has been flatter, with 12.4 PPG over both the last 5 and last 10 and a clear down trend. His minutes have also dipped to 20.8 over the last 10 from 24.2 on the season, which limits his ceiling across counting stats. The matchup is not especially favorable for volume, as Houston’s defense profile shows a 109.7 defensive rating, 100 pace, and negative scoring suppression, while Kuminga’s head-to-head history vs this opponent is below his season scoring level. Given the injury status of Out, he should not be treated as an active prop candidate.

Stat Trends

PPG

12.4(↓ from 12.8)

RPG

7.6(↑ from 6.4)

APG

2.4(→ from 2.6)

Key Matchup

Houston’s defense data shows a 109.7 defensive rating with 100 pace and negative scoring suppression, which does not create a clear boost for Kuminga’s scoring. His 13-game history vs this opponent is also muted at 10.69 PPG, 3.54 RPG, and 1.38 APG.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Jonathan Kuminga▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	88%HIGH	1/2	50%
Jonathan Kuminga▼	Rebounds	6.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	40%
Jonathan Kuminga▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Jonathan Kuminga▼	3PM	1	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	80%
Jonathan Kuminga▼	STL+BLK	1	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	70%
Jonathan Kuminga▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	30%
Jonathan Kuminga▼	P+R	19	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%
Jonathan Kuminga▼	R+A	8.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	60%

ML Scout Analysis

P+R15.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x7/2035%▼

P+A12.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

R+A7OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Jonathan Kuminga

Points UNDER 12.5HIGH

This is the cleanest read because his season average is 12.8, the last 10 is 12.4, and the last 5 is 12.4, all clustered near the line without upside momentum. Recent minutes are down to 20.8, and his production vs this opponent has historically sat below his current scoring baseline.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

pointsUNDER 12.588%HIGH

Season scoring is 12.8 and the last 10 is 12.4, so there is no meaningful push above this range. His minutes have fallen to 20.8 recently, which reduces over upside.

reboundsUNDER 6.560%MEDIUM

He averages 6.4 rebounds on the season and 6.7 over the last 10, but the recent sample has been in fewer minutes. This is close enough to the line that the under is the safer lean.

assistsUNDER 2.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 2.56 and recent mean is 2.4, so this sits right around his typical output. With reduced minutes recently, the under is slightly preferable.

threesUNDER 164%MEDIUM

He averages 0.96 threes per game on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, just under the typical 1.0 mark. The recent profile does not show strong 3-point volume.

stocksUNDER 167%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.76 and recent mean is 0.9, both below 1.0. Because the category is volatile, the under is still the better side at this line.

turnoversOVER 256%MEDIUM

He is at 2.0 turnovers over the last 10 and 2.4 over the last 20, with a season average of roughly 2.2 based on the provided logs and metrics. The turnover rate is consistent enough to lean over.

prUNDER 1962%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds profile is 19.2 using the season means, and recent minutes have been lower. That makes an under lean slightly stronger than an over.

raOVER 8.555%MEDIUM

He combines 6.4 rebounds with 2.6 assists on the season for 9.0 RA, and the last 10 is 9.1. This is a low-confidence over because the combo is close and combo props are higher variance.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS