AI Model:

Josh Okogie▼

HOU · SG

PPG

4.9

RPG

2.7

APG

0.8

L5 PPG

3.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.3

4.9

3.6

RPG-0.5

2.7

2.2

APG+0.6

0.8

1.4

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 6.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

6.5

MIA

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs MIA: 0 pts

WAS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs WAS: 0 pts

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 9 pts

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 0 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 0 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 0 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 12 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 3 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 0 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 3 pts

Over 6.5

Under 6.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 6.5STAKE

74%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

71%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

68%

3PM

UNDER 0.5

56%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

61%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

87%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

70%

UNDER 0.5

82%

P+R

UNDER 10.5STAKE

77%

P+A

UNDER 7.5STAKE

78%

R+A

UNDER 4.5STAKE

83%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

4.3

3.5

RPG

2.2

2.4

APG

0.6

vs ATL (H2H)9 games

PPG

6.0

RPG

2.6

APG

1.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jamal Murray	4	12	50%	-0.4%	medium
Payton Pritchard	2	10	55%	+2.2%	low
Cade Cunningham	2	9	100%	+56.7%	low
Deni Avdija	3	8	40%

Okogie’s minutes trend points to a low-ceiling night

Josh Okogie’s recent form is clearly trending down, with his last-5 averages at 3.6 PPG, 2.2 RPG, and 1.4 APG while his minutes have fallen to 13.0. His season production is modest across the board at 4.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 0.8 assists, and his last-10 numbers are even softer at 2.7 points and 1.6 rebounds. The matchup is not especially favorable for upside, as Houston’s opponent context shows a 116.61 defensive rating and 0.285 scoring suppression, which leans toward a lower-output outcome. Given the combination of reduced minutes and his recent scoring dip, the safer angle is to fade the higher-volume props and lean unders.

Stat Trends

PPG

3.6(↓ from 4.9)

RPG

2.2(↓ from 2.7)

APG

1.4(↑ from 0.8)

SPG

1.0(→ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available here. The broader opponent context is slightly unfavorable for scoring upside, with a 116.61 defensive rating and 0.285 scoring suppression against Houston.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Josh Okogie▼	Points	6.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	1/2	80%	2	✓
Josh Okogie▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	1/2	70%	3	✓
Josh Okogie▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Josh Okogie▼	3PM	0.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	0	✓
Josh Okogie▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	40%	1	✓
Josh Okogie▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	87%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Josh Okogie▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	70%	1	✓
Josh Okogie▼	Turnovers	0.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	—	100%	1	✗
Josh Okogie▼	P+R	10.5	UNDER	77%HIGH	2/2	80%	5	✓
Josh Okogie▼	P+A	7.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	2/2	80%	2	✓
Josh Okogie▼	R+A	4.5	UNDER	83%HIGH	2/2	80%	3	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA7UNDER21%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x5/1050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R7UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x4/1040%▼

P+A5.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x4/1040%▼

PTS3UNDER39%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x4/1040%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB2.5OVER8%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x5/1050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

3PM1UNDER55%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x3/1030%▼

3PA2UNDER33%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x3/1030%Confidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

R+A3UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)UNDER 5x4/1040%▼

Featured Pick

Josh Okogie

Rebounds + Assists UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the strongest under because his season R+A average is only 3.47 and his last-10 is 2.4. With minutes recently down to 12.1 and no signs of a usage spike, 4.5 is too high relative to his baseline.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	2	4	0	0%	0%
Corey Kispert	2	3	5	40%	50%
CJ McCollum	2	3	2	33%	33%
Jalen Johnson	1	2	0	0%	0%
Dyson Daniels	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 6.574%HIGH

He’s averaging 4.9 points for the season and just 3.6 over the last 5, with recent minutes down to 13.0. That’s well below the 6.5 line, and his last-10 scoring is only 2.7 PPG.

reboundsUNDER 3.571%HIGH

Okogie’s season rebound average is 2.7 and his last-5 is 2.2, both below 3.5. The recent playing-time dip also limits rebound chances.

assistsUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

He’s at 0.8 assists per game for the season and 0.8 over the last 10. Even though the last-5 is 1.4, the season baseline supports the under on 1.5.

threesUNDER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.89 threes per game season-long, but recent volume has slipped to 0.7 over the last 10 and 0.8 over the last 5. This is close enough to a make-or-break line that the under is playable, but not high confidence.

stealsOVER 0.561%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals on the season and 1.0 over the last 5, which clears 0.5 comfortably. The variance is present, but his defensive-event production still gives him a path over.

blocksUNDER 0.587%HIGH

Okogie only averages 0.2 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. That makes 0.5 a strong under.

stocksUNDER 1.570%HIGH

His combined season average for steals plus blocks is 1.1, and recent stocks are 1.2 over the last 5 but only 0.7 over the last 10. The safer read is under 1.5 given the season baseline and limited minutes.

turnoversUNDER 0.582%HIGH

He averages only 0.2 turnovers per game on the season and 0.0 over the last 5. With low usage, he is unlikely to reach 1 turnover.

prUNDER 10.577%HIGH

His season points-plus-rebounds average is 7.56, far below 10.5, and recent scoring/rebounding have both softened. This combo prop is inflated relative to his baseline.

paUNDER 7.578%HIGH

Okogie’s season points-plus-assists average is 5.73, and his recent minutes decline makes a jump to 8+ less likely. The season mean strongly favors the under.

raUNDER 4.583%HIGH

His season rebounds-plus-assists average is 3.47, well below 4.5, and the last-10 mark is even lower at 2.4. This is the clearest combo under on the board.

timelineUNDER 6.5 PTS