AI Model:

Kevin Durant—

HOU · PF

PPG

25.5

RPG

5.5

APG

4.5

L5 PPG

21.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-3.9

25.5

21.6

RPG+0.3

5.5

5.8

APG-0.9

4.5

3.6

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG-0.3

0.9

0.6

UNDER 24.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

24.5

MIA

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs MIA: 32 pts

WAS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs WAS: 30 pts

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 23 pts

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 20 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 23 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 29 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 11 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 32 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 18 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 18 pts

Over 24.5

Under 24.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 24.5FANDUEL

66%

REB

OVER 5.5FANDUEL

57%

AST

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

58%

3PM

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL

61%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

54%

OVER 3.5

63%

P+R

UNDER 30.5FANDUEL

60%

P+A

UNDER 28.5FANDUEL

59%

UNDER 0

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

22.7

27.6

RPG

5.8

5.5

APG

4.1

4.0

vs ATL (H2H)13 games

PPG

31.5

RPG

6.9

APG

5.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Toumani Camara	3	18	75%	+5.4%	medium
DeMar DeRozan	4	17	50%	-1.7%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	2	16	59%	+2.8%	low
Saddiq Bey	4	16	54%

Durant’s volume is solid, but the points line is priced tight

Kevin Durant enters this matchup with a season scoring average of 25.5 PPG and heavy minutes at 36.4 MPG, but his recent scoring has cooled to 21.6 over the last 5 and 23.6 over the last 10. The matchup data is encouraging for upside in his history versus this opponent, where he has averaged 31.54 PPG, 6.92 RPG, and 5.23 APG across 13 games. However, the current market has adjusted lower on points, and his recent turnover load plus a last-5 scoring dip make the under on points more attractive than an over. Rebounds and assists sit closer to his baseline, but combo props remain higher-variance than the single-stat options.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.6(↓ from 25.5)

RPG

5.8(→ from 5.5)

APG

3.6(↓ from 4.5)

Stocks

1.6(↓ from 1.8)

Key Matchup

He has strong head-to-head production versus this opponent, averaging 31.54 PPG, 6.92 RPG, and 5.23 APG in 13 games. However, the provided defender data is limited to no specific defender matchup data, so the clearest edge comes from his historical performance rather than a named on-ball matchup.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Kevin Durant▼	Points	24.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	25	✗
Kevin Durant▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	3	✗
Kevin Durant▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	6	✗
Kevin Durant▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✗
Kevin Durant▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✓
Kevin Durant▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	60%	4	✓
Kevin Durant▼	Turnovers	3.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Kevin Durant▼	P+R	30.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	28	✓
Kevin Durant▼	P+A	28.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	31	✗
Kevin Durant▼	Double-Double	0	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+A30.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

AST5.5OVER27%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 7x9/2045%▼

REB5.5UNDER4%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

PRA36.5UNDER26%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

P+R31UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

PTS25.5UNDER23%gbt_pointsAvoid (7/20)9/2045%▼

3PM2.5UNDER35%gbt_three_pmAvoid (7/20)10/2050%▼

3PA5.5UNDER27%gbtAvoid (7/20)10/2050%▼

BLK1UNDER50%gbt_blocksAvoid (6/20)OVER 2x7/2035%▼

FTM4UNDER24%gbtAvoid (6/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

FTA5UNDER4%gbtAvoid (6/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

R+A11UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (6/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Kevin Durant

Points UNDER 24.5HIGH

The season mean is 25.5, but the recent scoring trend is clearly lower at 21.6 over the last 5 and 23.6 over the last 10. With the market offering 24.5 at multiple books and his recent form below that threshold, the under is the strongest play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Johnson	1	3	3	33%	50%
Vít Krejčí	1	3	2	100%	100%
Dyson Daniels	2	2	0	0%	0%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	2	2	2	50%	50%
Mouhamed Gueye	2	2	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 24.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 25.5, but the last-5 scoring average is down to 21.6 and the last-10 is 23.6. With the line at 24.5, the market is still asking for a number above his recent form, which supports the under.

reboundsOVER 5.557%MEDIUM

He averages 5.5 rebounds on the season and 6.0 over the last 10, with 5.8 over the last 5. The line is right on the edge, but the recent rebounding form gives a slight lean over.

assistsUNDER 4.558%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 4.5, but the last-5 mark is 3.6 and the last-10 is 3.9. That recent dip makes the over less appealing at a 4.5 line.

threesUNDER 2.561%MEDIUM

He averages 2.23 made threes for the season and only 1.8 over the last 5, while the 2.5 line sits above both recent rolling averages. The under is supported by the recent decline in volume.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

His season block average is 0.9 and the last-10 is 1.0, so clearing 0.5 is still a common outcome. This is a lower-confidence over because blocks can swing quickly game to game.

stocksOVER 1.554%MEDIUM

He averages 1.75 stocks on the season and 1.9 over the last 10, both above the 1.5 threshold. The recent form supports the over, but the stat still carries variance.

turnoversOVER 3.563%MEDIUM

His recent turnover volume is elevated at 3.4 over the last 5 and 3.6 over the last 10, with 3.7 over the last 20. That makes an over on a projected 3.5 line reasonable.

prUNDER 30.560%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is not far above this number, but the recent scoring slide pulls the combined outlook down. Because combo props are higher-variance, the under is the more conservative side.

paUNDER 28.559%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists profile sits around the upper 20s, but his recent assist decline lowers the ceiling. The line is close enough to his current form that the under is slightly preferable.

double_doubleUNDER 055%MEDIUM

He has strong near-double-double categories, but the season production is still a touch short of a consistent double-double profile with 25.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. The under is the safer stance given the current shape of his stat line.

timelineUNDER 24.5 PTS