AI Model:

Nickeil Alexander-Walker▲

ATL · SG

PPG

20.3

RPG

3.5

APG

3.7

L5 PPG

26.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.7

20.3

26.0

RPG-0.5

3.5

3.0

APG-1.1

3.7

2.6

SPG+1.1

1.3

2.4

BPG+0.1

0.5

0.6

OVER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

18.5

BKN

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs BKN: 17 pts

WAS

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs WAS: 16 pts

POR

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs POR: 15 pts

MIL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MIL: 23 pts

PHI

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs PHI: 24 pts

DAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DAL: 29 pts

BKN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BKN: 18 pts

MIL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIL: 20 pts

ORL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ORL: 41 pts

DAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DAL: 22 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 18.5FANDUEL

62%

REB

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

68%

AST

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

59%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

66%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

61%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

57%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

63%

UNDER 2.5

60%

PRA

UNDER 25.5FANDUEL

58%

P+A

UNDER 21.5FANDUEL

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.3

19.1

RPG

3.1

3.6

APG

4.2

4.0

vs HOU (H2H)15 games

PPG

8.6

RPG

2.8

APG

2.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Desmond Bane	4	24	59%	+4.3%	medium
Kon Knueppel	4	21	43%	-12.4%	medium
Immanuel Quickley	4	19	83%	+21.0%	medium
Quentin Grimes	3	17	43%

Hot scoring form meets a tougher efficiency test

Nickeil Alexander-Walker is in strong current form, averaging 26.0 PPG over his last 5 and 22.5 PPG over his last 10, both above his 20.3 season average. His playing time has stayed steady at 33+ minutes, and his recent 41-point outburst shows a real scoring ceiling. The matchup is not a free pass, though: Houston’s defense carries a 109.7 defensive rating with a -1.292 scoring suppression mark and -0.621 three-point suppression. With his season numbers still anchoring the projection, the safest angle leans more toward steady volume than chasing the peak of the last-5 spike.

Stat Trends

PPG

26.0(↑ from 20.3)

RPG

3.0(→ from 3.5)

APG

2.6(↓ from 3.7)

Stocks

3.0(↑ from 1.8)

3PM

3.9(↑ from 3.2)

Key Matchup

Houston has a 109.7 defensive rating with a -1.292 scoring suppression and -0.621 three-point suppression, which makes this a tougher efficiency environment than his recent scoring spike suggests. No specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed key defenders, so the projection should lean on team-level defense and his own recent volume.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼	Points	18.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	21	✓
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	4	✗
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	4	✗
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	1	✗
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	1	✓
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✗
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼	Turnovers	2.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✗
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼	PRA	25.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	29	✗
Nickeil Alexander-Walker▼	P+A	21.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	25	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R26UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)6/2030%▼

P+A27UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Threes OVER 2.5MEDIUM

This is the strongest blend of season production and recent form: he averages 3.17 made threes on the season, 3.9 over the last 10, and 3.3 over the last 20. Even with Houston’s three-point suppression, the volume is high enough to justify the over more than the other markets.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Amen Thompson	2	8	4	100%	100%
Reed Sheppard	2	8	10	57%	71%
Kevin Durant	2	4	15	75%	75%
Jabari Smith Jr.	2	2	8	75%	88%
Josh Okogie	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 18.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 20.3 PPG and his last 10 is 22.5, both above 18.5. The recent 26.0 last-5 scoring keeps the over live, even though the matchup and regression risk keep confidence moderate.

reboundsUNDER 3.568%MEDIUM

He averages 3.5 rebounds for the season, but only 2.7 over the last 10 and 3.0 over the last 5. With a standard deviation of 2.18 on a 3.45 mean, this is a volatile stat and the under is the safer side.

assistsUNDER 3.559%MEDIUM

His season average is 3.7 APG, but the last 5 dipped to 2.6 and his b2b mean is only 2.8. The spread around the average is wide enough that the under is slightly preferred.

threesOVER 2.566%MEDIUM

He is averaging 3.17 made threes on the season and 3.9 over the last 10, with 3.3 over the last 20. That volume supports the over despite Houston’s -0.621 three-point suppression.

stealsUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.3 steals on the season and 1.6 over the last 20, but 1.5 is still a high bar relative to his baseline. The recent surge is useful, but the under has the cleaner season-based profile.

blocksOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.5 blocks per game on the season and 0.6 over the last 5. This is a low-volume stat, so the over is playable but not a high-confidence look.

stocksOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.83 and it has climbed to 2.2 over the last 10 and 3.0 over the last 5. That combination of steals-plus-blocks volume gives the over a solid lean.

turnoversUNDER 2.560%MEDIUM

He is at 2.3 turnovers over the last 10 and 2.2 over the last 5, which sits just below the 2.5 threshold. The recent assist-to-turnover profile does not point to a strong over case.

praUNDER 25.558%MEDIUM

His season-based PRA profile is around 27.5 using 20.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, but the combo prop carries more variance than the raw scoring line. Given the caution on combo props, the under is the more conservative side.

paUNDER 21.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus assists total is 24.0, but the recent assist dip to 2.6 makes this less secure than the points market. Combo variance keeps the under slightly preferable at this number.

timelineOVER 18.5 PTS