AI Model:

Reed Sheppard▲

HOU · SG

PPG

13.4

RPG

2.8

APG

3.2

L5 PPG

11.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.2

13.4

11.2

RPG+0.4

2.8

3.2

APG-0.6

3.2

2.6

SPG+0.2

1.4

1.6

BPG-0.1

0.7

0.6

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

12.5

MIA

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs MIA: 14 pts

WAS

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs WAS: 19 pts

GSW

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs GSW: 30 pts

POR

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs POR: 17 pts

SAS

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs SAS: 17 pts

TOR

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs TOR: 7 pts

DEN

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs DEN: 9 pts

NOP

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs NOP: 18 pts

LAL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs LAL: 11 pts

LAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs LAL: 11 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5FANDUEL

66%

REB

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

58%

AST

OVER 3.5FANDUEL

70%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

54%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

64%

BLK

OVER 0.5FANDUEL

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

59%

OVER 2.5

61%

PRA

UNDER 19.5FANDUEL

57%

P+A

UNDER 16.5FANDUEL

58%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.5

14.8

RPG

3.2

3.5

APG

3.1

4.5

vs ATL (H2H)1 games

PPG

13.0

RPG

4.0

APG

4.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Bruce Brown	4	14	50%	+6.8%	medium
Nique Clifford	4	13	56%	+6.8%	medium
Davion Mitchell	2	12	33%	-9.9%	low
John Konchar	3	10	0%

Sheppard’s minutes and playmaking are trending up, but the scoring line still looks playable to the under

Reed Sheppard’s overall form is trending up in minutes and usage, with his last 10 showing 15.3 PPG, 4.3 APG, and 32.7 MPG versus a season baseline of 13.4 PPG, 3.2 APG, and 26.1 MPG. The recent scoring burst is notable, but his last 5 drops to 11.2 PPG and 2.6 APG, so the short window is cooler than the last 10 suggests. Against Atlanta, the opponent profile is not especially suppressive overall, but Houston is at home and his home split is 15.5 PPG with 3.7 threes per game, which supports a stable role. The cleanest angle is to stay disciplined on points and lean into the assist value where the market has offered a positive edge.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.2(↓ from 13.4)

APG

2.6(↓ from 3.2)

3PM

2.2(↓ from 2.6)

Stocks

2.2(→ from 2.1)

Key Matchup

Atlanta’s opponent defense data shows a 116.61 defensive rating, 100 pace, and 0.285 scoring suppression with -0.239 three suppression. There is specific defender matchup data listed, but the minute shares are minimal, so there is no clear single defender edge to weight heavily.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Reed Sheppard▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	14	✗
Reed Sheppard▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	4	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	70%HIGH	1/2	40%	4	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	4	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	1	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	—	70%	3	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%	3	✓
Reed Sheppard▼	PRA	19.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	22	✗
Reed Sheppard▼	P+A	16.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	18	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA21.5UNDER2%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x12/2060%▼

PTS13.5UNDER22%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

REB3.5OVER6%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

STL1.5UNDER16%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

3PM2.5UNDER33%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)14/2070%▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

AST3.5OVER2%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

R+A8.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)11/2055%▼

P+A20UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

3PA8UNDER22%gbtAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Reed Sheppard

Assists OVER 3.5HIGH

This is the strongest data-backed play because the FanDuel value prop shows a 12.4% edge and 28.96 EV per 100 on the over. His season average is 3.19 APG, his last 10 is 4.3 APG, and his last 20 is 3.6 APG, so the assist trend supports the market edge.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	2	5	11	57%	57%
Luke Kennard	1	3	0	0%	0%
Vít Krejčí	1	3	2	50%	50%
Corey Kispert	2	2	0	0%	0%
Gabe Vincent	1	2	2	33%	33%

pointsUNDER 12.566%MEDIUM

His season mean is 13.4 PPG, but the last 5 is down to 11.2 PPG and the recent scoring has cooled despite higher minutes. With the line at 12.5, the under is supported by the blend of season form and the current short-window dip.

reboundsOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

He averages 2.8 rebounds on the season and 3.2 over the last 5, with a 3.12 home mean. The edge is modest, but the volume has been enough to clear 2.5 more often than not.

assistsOVER 3.570%HIGH

This is the clearest value spot: his season mean is 3.19 APG and his recent mean is 4.3 APG, with value_props showing a 12.4% edge on the FanDuel over. Even with standard deviation at 2.09, the market edge supports the over.

threesOVER 2.554%MEDIUM

He averages 2.61 made threes per game, 2.79 at home, and 3.1 over the last 5. The line is close enough that the over is viable, but the recent 5-game dip to 2.2 makes this only a modest lean.

stealsUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 steals on the season, which is below the 1.5 line, and the last 5 is 1.6 with high variance. Because the standard deviation is 1.59 and the market is asking for a strong defensive counting game, the under is safer.

blocksOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 blocks per game and 0.6 over the last 5, so he clears 0.5 at a reasonable rate. The confidence stays moderate because blocks are volatile, but the season mean is above the line.

stocksOVER 1.559%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.09 and recent output is 2.2 over the last 5, both comfortably above 1.5. The variance is meaningful, but the baseline production supports the over.

turnoversOVER 2.561%MEDIUM

He has 2.5 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 2.8 over the last 10 and last 5, signaling real ball-handling risk. If the prop is posted around 2.5, the recent turnover load points to the over.

praUNDER 19.557%MEDIUM

His season components sum to a modest PRA profile, and combo props are historically higher-variance. Since the line is set at 19.5 and the last 5 scoring/assist dip offsets the higher-minute stretch, the under is the more conservative side.

paUNDER 16.558%MEDIUM

He averages 13.4 points plus 3.2 assists for 16.6 combined on the season, essentially right on the number, but the last 5 assist drop makes the over less attractive. With combo variance, the under gets the edge.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS