AI Model:

Baylor Scheierman▼

BOS · SG

PPG

4.9

RPG

3.5

APG

1.3

L5 PPG

6.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.3

4.9

6.2

RPG+3.5

3.5

7.0

APG+1.7

1.3

3.0

SPG0.0

0.6

BPG-0.1

0.1

0.0

UNDER 6.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

6.5

PHI

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs PHI: 12 pts

MIL

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs MIL: 10 pts

CHA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs CHA: 9 pts

DAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DAL: 5 pts

CLE

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CLE: 16 pts

SAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAS: 6 pts

OKC

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs OKC: 11 pts

WAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs WAS: 3 pts

PHX

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs PHX: 8 pts

GSW

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs GSW: 3 pts

Over 6.5

Under 6.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 6.5FANDUEL

67%

REB

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

64%

AST

OVER 1.5

57%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

61%

STL

OVER 0.5

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

72%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

OVER 1

55%

P+R

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

PRA

UNDER 13.5FANDUEL

58%

R+A

OVER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.5

9.3

RPG

6.0

6.8

APG

3.0

2.1

vs MEM (H2H)2 games

PPG

3.0

RPG

0.5

APG

0.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
CJ McCollum	6	11	55%	+10.1%	medium
Tyrese Maxey	2	9	35%	-14.4%	low
Luka Dončić	1	7	44%	-6.9%	low
Pascal Siakam	4	7	38%

Minutes bump helps, but the numbers still lean under on the core props

Baylor Scheierman’s recent role has grown sharply, with last-5 minutes at 29.0 and production up to 6.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG, and 3.0 APG, but his season baseline remains modest at 4.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG, and 1.3 APG. The current run is above his season norms, so some regression risk is real, especially on points and combo props. Memphis allows a 118.62 defensive rating and plays at a 100 pace, but Scheierman’s head-to-head sample is only 3.0 PPG and 9.0 MPG over 2 games versus this opponent. With no specific defender matchup data, the cleanest edge comes from blending the expanded minutes with the lower season scoring profile.

Stat Trends

PPG

6.2(↑ from 4.9)

RPG

7.0(↑ from 3.5)

APG

3.0(↑ from 1.3)

3PM

1.8(↑ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data. Memphis owns a 118.62 defensive rating, and the game pace is 100, which is not a major pace boost for volume-dependent overs.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Baylor Scheierman▼	Points	6.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	2	✓
Baylor Scheierman▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	4	✓
Baylor Scheierman▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	3	✓
Baylor Scheierman▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	0	✓
Baylor Scheierman▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓
Baylor Scheierman▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	90%	0	✓
Baylor Scheierman▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	100%	1	✓
Baylor Scheierman▼	Turnovers	1	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	20%	0	✗
Baylor Scheierman▼	P+R	12.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	6	✓
Baylor Scheierman▼	PRA	13.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	10%	9	✓
Baylor Scheierman▼	R+A	6.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	7	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA9.5OVER59%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)16/2080%+27.6% edgeConfidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

P+R12UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 4x9/2045%▼

P+A10UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

R+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 5x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Baylor Scheierman

Points UNDER 6.5HIGH

The best value shown is UNDER 6.5 points, with a 0.066 edge and 13.07 EV per 100 at WilliamHill. His season mean is 4.88 PPG, and his head-to-head history versus this opponent is only 3.0 PPG across 2 games, so the current scoring bump is more likely to cool off than sustain.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Cam Spencer	2	3	0	0%	0%
DeJon Jarreau	1	3	3	100%	150%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	2	2	2	100%	100%
Walter Clayton Jr.	1	1	2	0%	0%
Ty Jerome	1	1	5	50%	63%

pointsUNDER 6.567%MEDIUM

Season mean is 4.88 points, well below the 6.5 line, and the value props show UNDER has a 0.066 edge with 13.07 EV per 100 at WilliamHill. His last-5 scoring is higher at 6.2, but that is still below the season-adjusted context and the recent run is likely to regress.

reboundsUNDER 4.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 3.48 rebounds versus a 4.5 line, while the value props show UNDER with a 0.065 edge and 14.05 EV per 100 at FanDuel. The recent rebound surge to 7.0 last-5 is a clear outlier relative to the season baseline.

assistsOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.34 assists on the season and 2.5 over the last 10, with last-5 at 3.0 and 28.1 recent minutes. This is still a lower-confidence OVER because the season mean is close to the line and the standard deviation is 1.54.

threesUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.09 made threes on the season and only 1.5 at home, which sits below a typical 1.5 line threshold. Recent volume is up at 1.9 last-10, but the prop metrics show moderate variance with a 1.11 standard deviation.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.6 steals and he has reached 0.5 or more in most recent data, including 0.6 last-5 and last-20. This is a thin edge because the sample is low-volume and the standard deviation is high relative to the mean.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

He averages just 0.1 blocks on the season and 0.0 over the last-5, far below a 0.5 threshold. There is no strong reason to expect a spike here.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.64 and last-5 is 0.6, both well short of 1.5. This is a low-ceiling combo stat for him despite the recent minutes increase.

turnoversOVER 155%MEDIUM

He has 1.0 turnovers per game in the last-5 and 0.9 over the last-20, so a 1.0 line is right in the range. Because the season mean is low at 0.7 home and 1.1 away, this remains a modest-confidence play.

prUNDER 12.563%MEDIUM

His season PR profile is 4.88 points plus 3.48 rebounds, which is 8.36 combined average against a 12.5 line. The recent minutes and box-score spike help, but combo props carry extra variance and the season baseline is still well below the number.

praUNDER 13.558%MEDIUM

His season averages sum to 7.51 PRA, and even the last-10 comes out to 13.3, just under this line. Given the combo-prop caution and his volatile scoring, UNDER is the safer side.

raOVER 6.556%MEDIUM

He is at 3.5 rebounds and 1.3 assists on the season, but the last-5 has jumped to 7.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists, making 6.5 reachable if the minutes stay elevated. Still, the confidence stays modest because this is a higher-variance combo.

timelineUNDER 6.5 PTS