Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Herbert Jones | 3 | 12 | 50% | +2.7% | medium |
| Bruce Brown | 3 | 11 | 0% | -47.3% | medium |
| Julian Champagnie | 4 | 10 | 63% | +2.7% | medium |
| Kris Dunn | 4 | 10 | 33% |
Cam Spencer is trending slightly up, with his last-10 scoring at 12.6 PPG versus a 11.4 season mark, while his minutes have held steady at 23.2. The more important split is that his assists have cooled recently to 4.5 over the last 10 and his season assist mean is 5.42, but tonight’s context is mixed because the Grizzlies are at home on a back-to-back. Against Boston, his prior head-to-head sample is very small and weak, with just 2.5 PPG and 1.5 APG across 2 games and 15 MPG, so the matchup history does not point to a ceiling game. The opponent also shows a 106.96 defensive rating and -1.919 scoring suppression, which nudges the projection slightly lower than his recent scoring form.
Boston’s opponent profile shows a 106.96 defensive rating with -1.919 scoring suppression and -0.107 three suppression. There is no specific defender matchup data, so the projection leans on team-level context and his weak 2-game history versus this opponent.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cam Spencer▼ | Points | 9.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 80% | 11 | ✓ |
Cam Spencer▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 3 | ✗ |
Cam Spencer▼ | Assists | 4.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 5 | ✓ |
Cam Spencer▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 69%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
Cam Spencer▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 1 | ✓ |
Cam Spencer▼ | STL+BLK | 1 | OVER | 52%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 1 | ✗ |
Cam Spencer▼ | Turnovers | 1 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 10% | 0 | ✗ |
Cam Spencer▼ | P+R | 13.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 14 | ✓ |
Cam Spencer▼ | P+A | 13.5 | OVER | 60%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 90% | 16 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest prop because his season average is 2.05 threes, with 2.0 over the last 5 and 2.0 over the last 10. The line of 1.5 is below his normal output, giving the best combination of role stability and recent form.
| medium |
| Nique Clifford | 4 | 10 | 58% | +2.7% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor Scheierman | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Payton Pritchard | 2 | 3 | 5 | 67% | 83% |
| Sam Hauser | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Jaylen Brown | 2 | 3 | 8 | 67% | 67% |
| Derrick White | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
He is averaging 11.4 PPG on the season and 12.6 over the last 10, both above 9.5. The recent production is solid, but this is still a modest edge rather than a strong one because his last-5 sits at 11.4 and the opponent history is poor.
His season rebounding mean is 2.6 and recent mean is 2.4, so 2.5 is right on the number. With last-5 rebounds at just 1.4 and only 2.0 RPG in away games, the under is the cleaner side.
Season assists are 5.4 and the last-10 average is 4.5, exactly around the line. Because his away mean is 5.2 and he has cleared this range often enough, the over is playable but not high confidence due to recent cooling.
He averages 2.05 made threes per game on the season and 2.0 over the last 5, with 2.0 also over the last 10. A 1.5 line sits below his baseline volume, making the over the strongest category prop.
He averages 0.7 steals on the season and 0.7 over the last 10, which supports a modest over lean. The variance is still meaningful, so confidence stays limited.
His combined season stocks are 0.85, while recent form is 1.1 over the last 10 and 1.0 over the last 5. This is close to the market and the variance is high, so the play is only a slight over lean.
He has 1.0 turnovers in the last 5 and 0.7 in the last 10, but his role as a 23.8 MPG rotation guard still creates some ball-handling exposure. This is only a small lean because the turnover profile is fairly controlled.
His season points plus rebounds is 14.0, and his recent form remains near that range. The line is close enough that the over is viable, but rebounds have trended down, limiting the edge.
He averages 16.8 points plus assists on the season and 17.2 over the last 10, both above 13.5. That said, assist volatility is noticeable, so this is more comfortable than PR but still not a premium play.