AI Model:

Cedric Coward▲

MEM · SG

PPG

13.4

RPG

6.2

APG

2.8

L5 PPG

13.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG0.0

13.4

RPG+0.4

6.2

6.6

APG-0.6

2.8

2.2

SPG0.0

0.6

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

OVER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

MIN

2026-02-02

2026-02-02 vs MIN: 14 pts

SAC

2026-02-04

2026-02-04 vs SAC: 5 pts

POR

2026-02-06

2026-02-06 vs POR: 11 pts

GSW

2026-02-09

2026-02-09 vs GSW: 2 pts

MIN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIN: 15 pts

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 15 pts

PHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHI: 13 pts

DET

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DET: 7 pts

CHI

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs CHI: 17 pts

DEN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DEN: 15 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

REB

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

AST

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

52%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

63%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

50%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

OVER 2

54%

P+R

OVER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

51%

P+A

OVER 14.5FANDUEL

53%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.8

11.0

RPG

5.9

5.3

APG

2.1

3.0

vs BOS (H2H)1 games

PPG

12.0

RPG

6.0

APG

3.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Saddiq Bey	4	18	66%	+5.8%	medium
Donte DiVincenzo	4	13	100%	+23.2%	medium
Jabari Smith Jr.	3	11	83%	+19.9%	medium
Kevin Durant	3	10	17%

Home split supports a steady Cedric Coward points outlook

Cedric Coward is averaging 13.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 2.8 APG on the season across 26.1 MPG, with recent production holding near that baseline despite a small dip in the last 10 games. At home, he has been better offensively at 14.8 PPG and 2.0 threes made per game compared to 11.0 PPG and 1.2 threes away, which is a positive for tonight in Memphis. Boston’s team defense context is not an obvious pace boost, and Memphis is on a back-to-back, so there is some minute risk, but his current role still points to a usable scoring floor. The cleanest angle is his three-point volume, where his recent and home usage align with the market line.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.4(→ from 13.4)

RPG

6.6(↑ from 6.2)

APG

2.2(↓ from 2.8)

3PM

1.4(→ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

Boston’s opponent defense context shows a 106.96 defensive rating, pace of 100, and -1.919 scoring suppression, which is not a major green light for overs. There is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the matchup read should stay team-context based rather than opponent-player specific.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend
Cedric Coward▼	Points	11.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%
Cedric Coward▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Cedric Coward▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	1/2	40%
Cedric Coward▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	40%
Cedric Coward▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	50%MEDIUM	—	50%
Cedric Coward▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%
Cedric Coward▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	30%
Cedric Coward▼	P+R	17.5	OVER	51%MEDIUM	1/2	50%
Cedric Coward▼	P+A	14.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	2/2	60%

ML Scout Analysis

P+A15UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

R+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

P+R17UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Cedric Coward

Threes OVER 1.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest quantified value spot because his season mean is 1.48 threes, his home average is 2.0, and the value data shows a 10.7% edge at the listed price. The over is supported by role and location, though the back-to-back and recent 1.1 threes over the last 10 keep it from being a high-confidence play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jaylen Brown	1	3	7	60%	70%
Anfernee Simons	1	3	3	25%	38%
Derrick White	1	2	2	50%	50%
Sam Hauser	1	1	0	0%	0%
Luka Garza	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsOVER 11.568%MEDIUM

He averages 13.4 points per game on the season and 13.4 over the last 5, both above 11.5. His home scoring is 14.8 PPG, which supports the over despite back-to-back minute risk.

reboundsOVER 5.556%MEDIUM

Season rebound average is 6.2 with a last-5 mark of 6.6, and his home split is 5.9 RPG. The edge is thinner than points, so this is a modest lean only.

assistsOVER 2.552%MEDIUM

He averages 2.8 assists on the season and 2.76 away, which keeps him close to the line. Recent assists have been 2.2 over the last 5, so this is only a small over lean.

threesOVER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.48 threes per game on the season and 2.0 at home, with 1.4 over the last 5 and 1.1 over the last 10. The market line is 1.5, and the value data shows a positive edge on the over.

blocksOVER 0.550%MEDIUM

He averages 0.4 blocks on the season and 0.6 over the last 5, so this is near the meaningful threshold rather than a strong edge. Variance is high relative to the role.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.0 and the last 5/10/20 all sit at 1.2, which is below 1.5. This is a conservative under based on category volume.

turnoversOVER 254%MEDIUM

He is at 2.1 turnovers in the last 20 and 2.2 over the last 5, so a 2.0 line would be live. That said, turnover volume is volatile, so confidence stays moderate.

prOVER 17.551%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 19.59 on the raw season means, but combo props carry extra variance and the last 10 scoring dip matters. This is playable, but not a top-confidence angle.

paOVER 14.553%MEDIUM

Points plus assists combines 13.4 PPG and 2.8 APG for a season profile above 14.5. The last-10 scoring is softer at 11.4 PPG, so the edge is narrower than the raw season mean suggests.

timelineOVER 11.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Home split supports a steady Cedric Coward points outlook

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

OVER 11.5 PTS