AI Model:

Jaylen Wells—

MEM · SF

PPG

12.8

RPG

3.3

APG

1.6

L5 PPG

15.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+2.8

12.8

15.6

RPG+0.3

3.3

3.6

APG-0.6

1.6

1.0

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG+0.1

0.1

0.2

OVER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

11.5

DAL

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DAL: 12 pts

IND

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs IND: 18 pts

MIN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIN: 19 pts

POR

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs POR: 24 pts

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 8 pts

BKN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs BKN: 17 pts

PHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHI: 11 pts

DAL

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs DAL: 23 pts

CHI

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs CHI: 16 pts

DEN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DEN: 11 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

61%

REB

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

70%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

58%

3PM

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL

64%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

56%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

66%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

60%

PRA

UNDER 15.5BETONLINEAG

55%

P+R

UNDER 14.5STAKE

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.7

16.0

RPG

2.9

2.8

APG

1.8

1.3

vs BOS (H2H)3 games

PPG

7.3

RPG

3.0

APG

0.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
James Harden	3	25	53%	-5.6%	medium
CJ McCollum	4	21	58%	+3.1%	medium
Luka Dončić	3	21	63%	+11.9%	medium
Anthony Edwards	3	20	45%

Wells brings steady scoring, but the market may still be a touch too high

Jaylen Wells has been trending above his season scoring rate, with 15.6 PPG over the last 5 and 15.9 over the last 10 versus a 12.8 season average. His three-point volume is also strong at 2.6 FG3M per game over the last 5 and 2.7 over the last 10, but the opponent context is not especially supportive, as his head-to-head line against this team sits at just 7.3 PPG across 3 games. The game is at home, where he averages 14.7 PPG and 2.9 RPG, but the season-long baseline still points closer to the low teens than to a breakout. With limited assist volume and moderate variance, the clearest edge comes from points and rebounds rather than combo props.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.6(↑ from 12.8)

RPG

3.6(→ from 3.3)

APG

1.0(↓ from 1.6)

3PM

2.6(↑ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

He has no specific defender matchup data to target here. The opponent profile is mildly negative for scoring, with a 106.96 defensive rating and -1.919 scoring suppression, plus his own 3-game history versus this opponent is only 7.3 PPG.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jaylen Wells▼	Points	11.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	6	✗
Jaylen Wells▼	Rebounds	2.5	OVER	70%HIGH	1/2	70%	0	✗
Jaylen Wells▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	0	✓
Jaylen Wells▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	0	✓
Jaylen Wells▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✓
Jaylen Wells▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Jaylen Wells▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	50%	2	✗
Jaylen Wells▼	PRA	15.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	20%	6	✓
Jaylen Wells▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	6	✓

ML Scout Analysis

R+A4UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%▼

P+A15OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼

P+R16UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Jaylen Wells

Rebounds OVER 2.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge on the board: his season rebound average is 3.3, his last 10 is 3.0, and the value data shows a 9.4% edge with 15.46 EV per 100. The line is simply below his normal output, and rebounds are less dependent on scoring regression than his points market.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Derrick White	2	6	8	43%	50%
Jaylen Brown	2	4	10	60%	60%
Payton Pritchard	2	3	6	67%	83%
Sam Hauser	2	1	0	0%	0%
Neemias Queta	2	1	2	0%	0%

pointsOVER 11.561%MEDIUM

His season mean is 12.8 PPG and his recent form is stronger at 15.6 PPG over the last 5. The risk is regression versus the hot stretch, but the line is still below his season baseline.

reboundsOVER 2.570%HIGH

He averages 3.3 rebounds on the season and 3.0 over the last 10, both above this number. The provided value props also show a 9.4% edge on over 2.5 rebounds.

assistsUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.6 APG, but the last 5 is only 1.0 and the last 10 is 1.2. With limited playmaking volume, the under is slightly cleaner than forcing an over.

threesUNDER 2.564%MEDIUM

Even with 1.91 made threes per game on the season and 2.7 over the last 10, the 2.5 line sits above his typical baseline. His season mean is still below the number, so the under remains playable despite recent volume.

stealsOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 5. The variance is high, so this is a lower-confidence over, but the baseline supports it.

blocksUNDER 0.566%MEDIUM

He averages just 0.1 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. That is far below the 0.5 threshold, making the under the clear side.

stocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.02 and his last 10 is 1.3, both below 1.5. This is a higher-variance stat, but the baseline still leans under.

praUNDER 15.555%MEDIUM

His season PRA components are 12.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.6 assists, which puts him near the line but not comfortably above it. Combo props are more volatile, so the under is the safer lean.

prUNDER 14.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds average is 16.1, but recent rebounding has been only 3.0 and his scoring could regress from 15.6 over the last 5. With the over/under close, the under gets the nod on regression risk.

timelineOVER 11.5 PTS