AI Model:

Jayson Tatum—

BOS · PF

PPG

20.7

RPG

8.5

APG

4.0

L5 PPG

21.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.1

20.7

21.8

RPG-0.7

8.5

7.8

APG-0.6

4.0

3.4

SPG0.0

1.2

BPG0.0

0.0

UNDER 22.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

22.5

MIA

2025-04-02

2025-04-02 vs MIA: 16 pts

PHX

2025-04-04

2025-04-04 vs PHX: 23 pts

NYK

2025-04-08

2025-04-08 vs NYK: 32 pts

CHA

2025-04-11

2025-04-11 vs CHA: 16 pts

DAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DAL: 15 pts

CLE

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CLE: 20 pts

SAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAS: 24 pts

WAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs WAS: 20 pts

PHX

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs PHX: 21 pts

GSW

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs GSW: 24 pts

Over 22.5

Under 22.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 22.5DRAFTKINGS

74%

REB

OVER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

AST

UNDER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

76%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

58%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

71%

BLK

UNDER 0.5BETMGM

80%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

68%

OVER 2

62%

PRA

UNDER 34.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

P+A

UNDER 26.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

P+R

UNDER 30.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

24.3

25.9

RPG

8.9

7.3

APG

6.1

5.5

vs MEM (H2H)9 games

PPG

26.1

RPG

8.1

APG

4.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Andrew Wiggins	1	6	75%	+8.8%	low
Jaden McDaniels	1	5	50%	+8.8%	low
Chet Holmgren	1	5	50%	-7.9%	low
Taylor Hendricks	1	5	67%

Tatum’s volume is steady, but the matchup and lines lean under on the main scoring props

Jayson Tatum is producing a stable all-around profile, with season averages of 20.7 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists across 6 games. His recent form is similar to season baseline: 21.8 PPG over the last 5 and 21.1 PPG over the last 10, while his last 20 is higher at 25.1 PPG, suggesting some regression toward the current season mean. The Grizzlies come in with a 118.62 defensive rating, a 0.744 scoring suppression mark, and this game also carries back-to-back risk for Memphis, which helps overall offense but does not erase the conservative scoring profile from the books. With Tatum’s recent production and the available lines, the safer angles are around his lower points, assists, and rebounds numbers rather than aggressive overs.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.8(↑ from 20.7)

RPG

7.8(↓ from 8.5)

APG

3.4(↓ from 4.0)

Stocks

1.2(→ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

The Grizzlies have a 118.62 defensive rating with a 0.744 scoring suppression figure, which points to a tougher scoring environment. Key defender data is limited to short-minute samples, so there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on beyond the team-level numbers.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jayson Tatum▼	Points	22.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	1/2	60%	13	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	Rebounds	7.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	9	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	76%HIGH	1/2	40%	0	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	2	✗
Jayson Tatum▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	2/2	80%	0	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	62%MEDIUM	—	10%	3	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	PRA	34.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	22	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	P+A	26.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	13	✓
Jayson Tatum▼	P+R	30.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	22	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA36.5OVER19%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 6x7/1450%▼

PTS21.5OVER6%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 5x7/1450%▼

AST4.5OVER51%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 6x8/1457%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

P+R31.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 5x7/1450%▼

STL0.5OVER35%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x10/1471%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

R+A15.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x7/1450%▼

REB8.5UNDER16%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x10/1471%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.420; Scorecard changed -4.0▼

3PM3.5UNDER36%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)5/1436%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+A26.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 5x6/1443%▼

Featured Pick

Jayson Tatum

Assists UNDER 4.5HIGH

This is the cleanest numbers-based angle: his season mean is 4.0 assists and his last 5 is 3.4, both below 4.5. The books are also pricing the under as the favored side, which aligns with the recent distribution and keeps this lower-variance than the combo props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Taylor Hendricks	1	5	4	67%	67%
DeJon Jarreau	1	1	0	0%	0%
Tyler Burton	1	1	0	0%	0%
Ty Jerome	1	1	0	0%	0%
Walter Clayton Jr.	1	1	2	33%	33%

pointsUNDER 22.574%HIGH

Season mean is 20.7 points and his last 10 is 21.1, both below 22.5. His last 5 at 21.8 is close, but not enough to justify an over given the over-bias warning and the stronger season baseline.

reboundsOVER 7.556%MEDIUM

He averages 8.5 rebounds season-long and 7.8 over the last 5, so 7.5 is slightly soft. However, the recent dip from his 8.5 season mean keeps this only a modest lean.

assistsUNDER 4.576%HIGH

His season mean is 4.0 assists and the last 5 is 3.4, both below 4.5. The last 10 at 5.2 is higher, but the current shorter-window trend is not supportive of the over.

threesOVER 2.558%MEDIUM

He averages 3.0 threes per game season-wide and 3.0 over the last 10, which clears 2.5. Confidence stays moderate because his three-point percentage is only 0.305 and the line is fairly efficient.

stealsUNDER 1.571%HIGH

He averages 1.2 steals this season and 1.2 over the last 5, below 1.5. With a moderate sample and no strong spike in recent logs, the under is the safer side.

blocksUNDER 0.580%HIGH

His season block average is 0 and last 20 is only 0.3, so 0.5 is still a tough ask. Recent game logs also show multiple zero-block outings.

stocksUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

He is averaging 1.17 stocks season-long and 1.2 over the last 5, which is below 1.5. The combined category adds volatility, so staying under is the more conservative call.

turnoversOVER 262%MEDIUM

His last 10 turnover average is 1.7, but his last 20 is 2.6, and several recent games show 2+ turnovers including a 4-turnover game vs GSW. That makes 2.0 a reasonable over target despite some short-window inconsistency.

praUNDER 34.563%MEDIUM

His season-based combo profile is not strong enough for a comfortable over: 20.7 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists sum to 33.2. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is preferred.

paUNDER 26.566%MEDIUM

Points plus assists comes out to 24.7 using season averages, and the recent assist trend is below the line. That leaves limited room for an over unless scoring jumps materially.

prUNDER 30.564%MEDIUM

Season points plus rebounds total 29.2, which sits just under the line. The recent scoring and rebounding numbers are steady but not enough to make 30.5 an attractive over.

timelineUNDER 22.5 PTS