AI Model:

Luka Garza▲

BOS · PF

PPG

7.4

RPG

3.9

APG

0.9

L5 PPG

8.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.2

7.4

8.6

RPG-0.9

3.9

3.0

APG-0.1

0.9

0.8

SPG+0.4

0.4

0.8

BPG-0.4

0.4

0.0

UNDER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

8.5

BKN

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs BKN: 4 pts

MIL

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs MIL: 7 pts

CHA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs CHA: 9 pts

DAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DAL: 10 pts

CLE

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CLE: 7 pts

SAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAS: 3 pts

OKC

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs OKC: 7 pts

WAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs WAS: 15 pts

PHX

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs PHX: 3 pts

GSW

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs GSW: 15 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 8.5STAKE

63%

REB

UNDER 5.5STAKE

71%

AST

OVER 0.5STAKE

66%

3PM

OVER 0.5

57%

STL

UNDER 0.5STAKE

62%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

68%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

69%

UNDER 1.5

61%

P+R

UNDER 14.5STAKE

64%

P+A

UNDER 10.5STAKE

67%

R+A

UNDER 6.5STAKE

73%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

6.7

6.5

RPG

2.7

3.1

APG

0.5

0.7

vs MEM (H2H)7 games

PPG

4.1

RPG

2.3

APG

0.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Day'Ron Sharpe	3	10	57%	-1.2%	medium
Alperen Sengun	2	10	40%	-18.3%	low
Jay Huff	4	8	17%	-41.6%	medium
Ivica Zubac	2	7	75%

Limited minutes, modest usage, and a strong case to stay under the inflated scoring line

Luka Garza is averaging 7.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and 0.9 APG on 15.6 MPG this season, with recent production ticking up to 8.0 PPG over the last 10 and 8.6 over the last 5. Even with that short-term bump, his season baseline still points to a low-usage rotation role, and his head-to-head numbers versus this opponent are muted at 4.1 PPG and 2.3 RPG in 7 games. The matchup environment is also not especially friendly: the opponent has a 118.62 defensive rating and 0.744 scoring suppression, which supports a conservative projection. His home split is only 6.7 PPG, and tonight’s game context includes the opponent on a back-to-back, but that alone does not outweigh his modest season profile.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.6(↑ from 7.4)

RPG

3.0(↓ from 3.9)

APG

0.8(→ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. The opponent context is more relevant here: a 118.62 defensive rating and 0.744 scoring suppression point to a tougher scoring environment, while the listed defender samples are extremely small and not reliable for matchup conclusions.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Luka Garza▼	Points	8.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	22	✗
Luka Garza▼	Rebounds	5.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	1/2	80%	7	✗
Luka Garza▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	66%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
Luka Garza▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	1	✓
Luka Garza▼	Steals	0.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✗
Luka Garza▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Luka Garza▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Luka Garza▼	Turnovers	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	50%	1	✓
Luka Garza▼	P+R	14.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	29	✗
Luka Garza▼	P+A	10.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	23	✗
Luka Garza▼	R+A	6.5	UNDER	73%HIGH	2/2	80%	8	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R13UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)7/1741%▼

P+A10UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)7/1741%▼

R+A5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x6/1735%▼

Featured Pick

Luka Garza

Rebounds UNDER 5.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number on the board relative to his profile. Garza is averaging 3.9 rebounds per game this season and 3.4 over the last 10, so 5.5 is well above his normal output and gives the under strong support.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	2	6	8	33%	33%
DeJon Jarreau	1	2	4	40%	40%
Jock Landale	1	1	5	67%	83%
Santi Aldama	1	1	4	50%	75%
Jaren Jackson Jr.	1	1	4	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 8.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 7.37 points and his last 20 is just 6.6, so 8.5 is a higher bar than his broader baseline. The recent 8.6 PPG is better, but the sample is small and his standard deviation is 5.09, so the safer lean is under.

reboundsUNDER 5.571%HIGH

Garza is at 3.86 RPG for the season and 3.4 over the last 10, well short of 5.5. Even with a 4.13 b2b rebound mean, this line is above his normal range.

assistsOVER 0.566%MEDIUM

He averages 0.93 assists per game and has 0.8 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a low threshold. The season and recent means both support at least one assist in many outcomes.

threesOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.75 threes season-long and 1.0 over the last 10, with 1.1 away and 1.25 on b2bs. The volume is not huge, but the 0.5 line is modest relative to his recent three-point rate.

stealsUNDER 0.562%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.4 steals and his last 10 is 0.5, which puts this line right on the edge. Given the variance and lower-season baseline, the under is slightly safer.

blocksUNDER 0.568%MEDIUM

He averages 0.4 blocks on the season and only 0.3 over the last 10. With a line at 0.5, the season profile points to an under.

stocksUNDER 1.569%MEDIUM

His combined steals+blocks average is 0.81 on the season and 0.8 over the last 5, well below 1.5. This is a clear under unless he has an outlier defensive game.

turnoversUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He is averaging 0.9 turnovers over the last 20 and 1.3 over the last 10, so a 1.5 projection would be above his normal range. His lower-minute role also helps keep turnover volume down.

prUNDER 14.564%MEDIUM

His season points+rebounds profile is 11.23 combined per game from the core averages, and recent form still sits below this threshold. Combo props carry more variance, and this line is asking for an above-baseline scoring night plus solid boards.

paUNDER 10.567%MEDIUM

He averages 7.4 points and 0.9 assists, so 10.5 requires a stronger scoring output than his season norm. The recent uptick helps, but the season mean still favors the under.

raUNDER 6.573%HIGH

His season rebounds+assists average is 4.76, and his last 10 is 4.2. This line is notably above both his season and recent production.

timelineUNDER 8.5 PTS