AI Model:

Neemias Queta▲

BOS · C

PPG

9.9

RPG

8.3

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

9.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.7

9.9

9.2

RPG-1.5

8.3

6.8

APG+1.1

1.5

2.6

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG-0.1

1.3

1.2

UNDER 10.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

10.5

BKN

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs BKN: 8 pts

PHI

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs PHI: 27 pts

CHA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs CHA: 2 pts

DAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DAL: 16 pts

CLE

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CLE: 4 pts

SAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAS: 5 pts

OKC

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs OKC: 4 pts

WAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs WAS: 24 pts

PHX

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs PHX: 5 pts

GSW

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs GSW: 8 pts

Over 10.5

Under 10.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 10.5FANDUEL

72%

REB

UNDER 9.5FANDUEL

70%

AST

OVER 1.5

56%

BLK

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

63%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2

60%

P+R

UNDER 20.5FANDUEL

66%

R+A

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

UNDER 0.5

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.7

8.2

RPG

7.8

9.7

APG

2.0

1.4

vs MEM (H2H)5 games

PPG

5.2

RPG

6.0

APG

0.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nic Claxton	3	19	43%	-21.9%	medium
Jalen Duren	3	19	50%	-14.8%	medium
Bam Adebayo	4	16	54%	-18.6%	medium
Andre Drummond	4	15	86%

Queta’s rebounding floor is solid, but scoring and combo props lean cautious

Neemias Queta is averaging 9.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 1.5 assists on the season, with a recent trend up in overall production but not enough to ignore his volatility. His last 5 games show 9.2 PPG and 6.8 RPG, while his last 10 sit closer to 10.3 PPG and 8.1 RPG, which keeps him near his season baseline rather than in true breakout territory. Against Memphis, his prior sample is modest at 5.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 0.8 assists across 5 games, and the matchup context does not provide a specific defender to target. With Boston on the road and Queta’s role still rotation-based, the best approach is to favor steadier rebound-oriented looks and be skeptical on higher combo overs.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.2(→ from 9.9)

RPG

6.8(↓ from 8.3)

APG

2.6(↑ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

Memphis is allowing a 118.62 defensive rating environment with a pace of 100, but there is no specific defender matchup data to target. Queta’s head-to-head sample vs this opponent is modest at 5.2 points and 6.0 rebounds across 5 games, which tempers optimism for a big ceiling game.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Neemias Queta▼	Points	10.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	70%	12	✗
Neemias Queta▼	Rebounds	9.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	1/2	50%	11	✗
Neemias Queta▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	1	✗
Neemias Queta▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	0	✓
Neemias Queta▼	STL+BLK	2	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Neemias Queta▼	P+R	20.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	23	✗
Neemias Queta▼	R+A	11.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	12	✗
Neemias Queta▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5UNDER18%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge changed -0.079▼

REB7.5UNDER17%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)12/2060%▼

PRA19.5OVER34%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 6x11/2055%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R20UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x9/2045%▼

P+A13.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x9/2045%▼

BLK1.5UNDER40%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x8/2040%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

R+A10.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

Featured Pick

Neemias Queta

Rebounds UNDER 9.5HIGH

This is the cleanest lean because his season rebound mean is 8.3, the last 5 is down to 6.8, and the value data repeatedly points to the UNDER. The 9.5 line sits above both his season and recent baselines, so he needs an above-average rebounding night to beat it.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jock Landale	1	5	6	75%	75%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	2	3	5	50%	75%
DeJon Jarreau	1	1	0	0%	0%
Taylor Hendricks	1	1	4	100%	100%
Tyler Burton	1	1	3	50%	75%

pointsUNDER 10.572%HIGH

His season mean is 9.9 points and his value data shows the UNDER as the best side at several books. The last 5 at 9.2 also sits below the 10.5 line, and his vs-opponent scoring average is only 5.2 across 5 games.

reboundsUNDER 9.570%HIGH

Queta’s season rebound average is 8.3, and his last 5 has dipped to 6.8. Even though the last 10 is 8.1, the 9.5 line is still above his typical output and his rebound value props also favor the UNDER.

assistsOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season mean is 1.5 assists and the last 5 has climbed to 2.6, which supports a slight over lean. Confidence stays modest because the season std is 1.47 and assist production is swingy.

blocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.3 blocks on the season, but 1.5 is above that baseline and the prop is priced with heavy under juice at the book. The recent block rates are 1.2 last 5 and 1.2 last 10, so the OVER needs a strong block game to clear.

stocksUNDER 260%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.14, but that recent mean is only 2.0 and the output is volatile with a 1.51 season std. Since this is a combo-style stat, caution is warranted and the edge is not strong enough to press an OVER.

prUNDER 20.566%MEDIUM

Season points plus rebounds are 18.2 combined, well below the 20.5 line. The recent scoring/rebounding mix has not shown enough sustained upside to justify an OVER on this combo.

raUNDER 11.558%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists sit at 9.8, and even the recent 10.1 from last 5 is still under 11.5. This is a lower-confidence combo because assists can spike, but the base numbers still point under.

double_doubleUNDER 0.562%MEDIUM

Queta has double-double potential, but the season profile is 9.9 points and 8.3 rebounds, so he needs a clear outlier in either category to get there. His recent game log includes both strong and quiet outcomes, making the UNDER the safer side on a DD expectation.

timelineUNDER 10.5 PTS