AI Model:
PG
Payton Pritchard▲
BOS · PG
PPG
16.7
RPG
4.0
APG
5.4
L5 PPG
14.8
Last 10 GamesPTS
Season vs Last 5
Season Last 5
PPG-1.9
16.7
14.8
RPG-1.0
4.0
3.0
APG+0.2
5.4
5.6
SPG+0.2
0.8
1.0
BPG+0.1
0.1
0.2
UNDER 16.5 PTS
Last 10 games
2
Current Streak
2
Longest Streak
OVER
Streak Type
16.5
22
BKN
2026-02-27
2026-02-27 vs BKN: 22 pts
0
PHI
2026-03-01
2026-03-01 vs PHI: 0 pts
25
MIL
2026-03-02
2026-03-02 vs MIL: 25 pts
0
CHA
2026-03-04
2026-03-04 vs CHA: 0 pts
18
DAL
2026-03-06
2026-03-06 vs DAL: 18 pts
18
CLE
2026-03-08
2026-03-08 vs CLE: 18 pts
14
OKC
2026-03-12
2026-03-12 vs OKC: 14 pts
4
WAS
2026-03-14
2026-03-14 vs WAS: 4 pts
19
PHX
2026-03-16
2026-03-16 vs PHX: 19 pts
19
GSW
2026-03-18
2026-03-18 vs GSW: 19 pts
Over 16.5
Under 16.5
Last 10 games
Prop Confidence
PTS
UNDER 16.5DRAFTKINGS
64%
REB
OVER 3.5FANDUEL
58%
AST
OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS
56%
3PM
UNDER 2.5FANDUEL
54%
STL+BLK
UNDER 1.5
62%
TO
UNDER 2
55%
PRA
UNDER 25.5FANDUEL
57%
Home vs Away
Home
Away
PPG
13.2
19.7
RPG
2.8
4.1
APG
4.9
6.3
vs MEM (H2H)10 games
PPG
10.7
RPG
3.4
APG
3.1
Defensive Matchup Profile
Top Defenders This Season
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson | 4 | 26 | 63% | -4.5% | medium |
| Andrew Nembhard | 4 | 19 | 46% | -10.5% | medium |
| VJ Edgecombe | 4 | 13 | 61% | +9.4% | medium |
| Norman Powell | 3 | 13 | 55% |
Pritchard’s scoring and volume look capped, but assists and rebounds offer a steadier path
Payton Pritchard is running at 32.7 MPG for the season, but his recent scoring has cooled to 14.8 PPG over the last 5 and 13.9 over the last 10 versus 16.7 on the year. The matchup context is mixed: Memphis allows a 118.62 defensive rating, but Boston is on the road and Pritchard’s away split is stronger than his home split at 19.7 PPG and 6.3 APG. His head-to-head numbers versus this opponent are modest at 10.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG, and 3.1 APG across 10 games, which leans toward a more restrained projection than his season baseline.
Stat Trends
PPG
14.8(↓ from 16.7)
APG
5.6(→ from 5.4)
RPG
3.0(↓ from 4.0)
Key Matchup
no specific defender matchup data. Memphis has a 118.62 defensive rating and a 100 pace, so the environment is not especially restrictive, but Pritchard’s 10-game history versus this opponent is only 10.7 PPG and 3.1 APG, which tempers the upside.
Prop Analysis
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Payton Pritchard▼ | Points | 16.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 19 | ✗ |
Payton Pritchard▼ | Rebounds | 3.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 6 | ✓ |
Payton Pritchard▼ | Assists | 5.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 3 | ✗ |
Payton Pritchard▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | UNDER | 54%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 3 | ✗ |
Payton Pritchard▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Payton Pritchard▼ | Turnovers | 2 | UNDER | 55%MEDIUM | — | 100% | 4 | ✗ |
Payton Pritchard▼ | PRA | 25.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 28 | ✗ |
ML Scout Analysis
PTS15.5UNDER15%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x12/2060%▼
AST3.5OVER19%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)14/2070%+9.4% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.248▼
PRA22.5UNDER18%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼
P+A20OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%▼
REB2.5UNDER2%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)13/2065%▼
3PM2.5OVER10%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge changed -0.039▼
R+A7.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)11/2055%▼
P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 4x8/2040%▼
Featured Pick
Payton Pritchard
Rebounds OVER 3.5MEDIUM
This is the best blend of price, role, and data support. He averages 4.0 rebounds on the season, 4.1 away, and the value feed shows a strong 8.2% edge on the over at 3.5, which stands out more than the other available props.
This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.