AI Model:

Sam Hauser▼

BOS · SF

PPG

9.2

RPG

3.9

APG

1.5

L5 PPG

7.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-1.4

9.2

7.8

RPG+0.3

3.9

4.2

APG+0.1

1.5

1.6

SPG+0.4

0.6

1.0

BPG-0.3

0.3

0.0

UNDER 8.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

8.5

PHI

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs PHI: 8 pts

MIL

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs MIL: 14 pts

CHA

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs CHA: 3 pts

DAL

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DAL: 6 pts

CLE

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs CLE: 15 pts

SAS

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs SAS: 11 pts

OKC

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs OKC: 8 pts

WAS

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs WAS: 12 pts

PHX

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs PHX: 2 pts

GSW

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs GSW: 6 pts

Over 8.5

Under 8.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 8.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

UNDER 1.5STAKE

63%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

66%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

72%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

64%

UNDER 2

78%

P+A

UNDER 12.5STAKE

60%

P+R

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

7.0

11.4

RPG

3.5

4.4

APG

1.2

1.9

vs MEM (H2H)8 games

PPG

7.6

RPG

2.0

APG

0.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jalen Johnson	3	12	50%	-3.3%	medium
Kelly Oubre Jr.	4	11	75%	+8.2%	medium
Cooper Flagg	2	9	33%	-8.5%	low
Andrew Wiggins	3	7	61%

Hauser’s scoring is trending down, and the under has the clearest edge

Sam Hauser is averaging 9.2 PPG on the season, but his last 5 games have dipped to 7.8 PPG and his trend is marked down. His away split is much stronger than his home production, and tonight is in Memphis, where his season numbers suggest a better scoring environment than at home. Even so, the recent volume has been uneven, and his matchup context does not provide any specific defender matchup data to boost the over. With the available lines, the market is mostly pricing him close to his season baseline, but the value data points most clearly to the under on points.

Stat Trends

PPG

7.8(↓ from 9.2)

RPG

4.2(→ from 3.9)

APG

1.6(→ from 1.5)

3PM

2.2(↓ from 2.6)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available, so this should be treated as a team-context spot rather than an isolated one-on-one matchup. Memphis has a 118.62 defensive rating and a 0.744 scoring suppression, which supports caution on his points markets.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Sam Hauser▼	Points	8.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	0	✓
Sam Hauser▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	4	✓
Sam Hauser▼	Assists	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✓
Sam Hauser▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✓
Sam Hauser▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Sam Hauser▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	80%	1	✗
Sam Hauser▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
Sam Hauser▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	78%HIGH	—	100%	0	✓
Sam Hauser▼	P+A	12.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✓
Sam Hauser▼	P+R	12.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	4	✓

ML Scout Analysis

3PM2.5UNDER31%gbt_three_pmDecent Leg (12/20)7/2035%+6.8% edge▼

PRA13.5UNDER28%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

PTS8.5UNDER15%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

3PA5.5UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R13UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

P+A10UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%▼

R+A5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)6/2030%▼

REB3.5UNDER8%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)12/2060%▼

AST1UNDER48%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Sam Hauser

Points UNDER 8.5HIGH

This is the cleanest value on the board: the under carries a 9.2% edge at DraftKings, with our model showing 0.577 probability versus the implied 0.485. His season scoring is 9.2 PPG, but the last 5 are down to 7.8, and the recent trend does not justify paying for the over at 8.5.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Ty Jerome	1	5	6	38%	38%
Santi Aldama	1	2	4	100%	100%
Cedric Coward	1	2	0	0%	0%
Cam Spencer	2	2	0	0%	0%
Jaylen Wells	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 8.567%MEDIUM

The value props show a 9.2% edge on the under at 8.5, with our probability at 0.577 versus the book's implied 0.485. His season mean is 9.17 PPG, but the recent mean is 8.5 and the last 5 are 7.8, which supports a slight lean under.

reboundsOVER 3.558%MEDIUM

He averages 3.88 RPG on the season and 4.5 over the last 10, with away mean at 4.56. The value sheet shows a small positive edge on the over at 3.5, though the modest edge keeps confidence controlled.

assistsUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.47 APG on the season and only 1.2 over the last 10, so 1.5 is slightly above his baseline. The recent distribution is not strong enough to support an over at this number.

threesUNDER 2.566%MEDIUM

He averages 2.58 made threes on the season, but the last 5 have fallen to 2.2 and the value props show a positive under edge at 2.5. With the season average only slightly above the line, the under is the safer side.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.6 steals per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 5. The line is low, but the sample is still volatile, so this stays a modest lean only.

blocksUNDER 0.572%HIGH

He averages just 0.3 blocks per game on the season and 0.0 over the last 5. At a 0.5 line, the under is clearly aligned with his baseline production.

stocksUNDER 1.564%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 0.86 and recent mean is 0.9, both well below 1.5. This is a high bar relative to his normal defensive event rate.

turnoversUNDER 278%HIGH

He is only at 0.3 turnovers over the last 10 and 0.2 over the last 5. Even with meaningful minutes, his ball-security profile points strongly under 2.0.

paUNDER 12.560%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists profile is not especially strong, with 9.2 PPG and 1.5 APG. The combo is vulnerable because his assist output is modest and his scoring has cooled.

prUNDER 12.562%MEDIUM

He averages 13.1 points plus rebounds on the season, but the last 5 scoring dip and the plus-juice under value on related scoring markets lean against the over. This is a combo prop where conservative play is warranted.

timelineUNDER 8.5 PTS