AI Model:

Ty Jerome▲

MEM · PG

PPG

20.2

RPG

3.1

APG

5.7

L5 PPG

21.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.8

20.2

21.0

RPG+0.5

3.1

3.6

APG+0.1

5.7

5.8

SPG-0.3

1.1

0.8

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 18.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

18.5

POR

2026-02-07

2026-02-07 vs POR: 13 pts

GSW

2026-02-09

2026-02-09 vs GSW: 19 pts

DEN

2026-02-11

2026-02-11 vs DEN: 19 pts

MIA

2026-02-21

2026-02-21 vs MIA: 17 pts

GSW

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs GSW: 22 pts

MIN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIN: 14 pts

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 23 pts

PHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs PHI: 26 pts

DET

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs DET: 21 pts

DEN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DEN: 21 pts

Over 18.5

Under 18.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

82%

REB

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

71%

AST

UNDER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

80%

3PM

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

84%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

68%

OVER 2

57%

PRA

UNDER 26.5DRAFTKINGS

69%

P+A

UNDER 24.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

20.4

19.1

RPG

3.6

2.2

APG

6.0

4.8

vs BOS (H2H)8 games

PPG

7.9

RPG

1.8

APG

1.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jaden McDaniels	3	12	70%	+12.6%	medium
Christian Braun	2	8	33%	-14.1%	low
Sam Hauser	1	5	0%	-47.4%	low
Gui Santos	2	4	0%

Ty Jerome’s scoring is stable, but the best edges lean under

Ty Jerome is producing 20.2 PPG, 5.7 APG, and 3.1 RPG on the season across 22.5 MPG, with his last 5 showing a modest bump to 21.0 PPG and 5.8 APG. The trend is up, but his last 10 and last 20 scoring marks sit closer to 19.5 and 19.6, so the recent spike does not fully justify aggressive over exposure. He is at home tonight, where his splits are slightly better at 20.4 PPG and 6.0 APG, but his head-to-head line versus this opponent is much lower at 7.875 PPG and 1.75 APG across 8 games. With standard deviations that are meaningful, especially in assists (2.4) and rebounds (2.43), the cleaner plays are on the unders.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.0(↑ from 20.2)

APG

5.8(→ from 5.7)

RPG

3.6(↑ from 3.1)

3PM

3.0(↑ from 2.9)

Key Matchup

There is opponent context here, but the head-to-head sample is weak for offense: 8 games versus this opponent with 7.875 PPG, 1.75 RPG, and 1.75 APG. Key defender data is present, but it does not give a clear individual matchup edge strong enough to override the lower historical production and the opponent's 106.96 defensive rating.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ty Jerome▼	Points	18.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	2/2	30%	16	✓
Ty Jerome▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	1/2	50%	1	✓
Ty Jerome▼	Assists	5.5	UNDER	80%HIGH	2/2	50%	7	✗
Ty Jerome▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	2/2	40%	2	✓
Ty Jerome▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✓
Ty Jerome▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	30%	0	✗
Ty Jerome▼	PRA	26.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	24	✓
Ty Jerome▼	P+A	24.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	23	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A25.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/1560%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x6/1540%▼

P+R22.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x7/1547%▼

Featured Pick

Ty Jerome

Points UNDER 18.5HIGH

This is the strongest value on the board: DraftKings value data shows a 46.1% edge and 88.74 EV per 100 on the under. Even though his season scoring is 20.2 and the last 5 is 21.0, the last 10 is 19.5, the last 20 is 19.6, and his 8-game history versus this opponent is only 7.875 PPG, which keeps the under firmly in play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	FG%	eFG%
Sam Hauser	1	5	0%	0%
Hugo González	1	1	0%	0%
Derrick White	1	1	0%	0%
Baylor Scheierman	1	1	0%	0%
Jayson Tatum	1	1	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 18.582%HIGH

His season mean is 20.15, but the market line is 18.5 and the value data strongly favors the under with a 46.1% edge and 88.74 EV per 100 at DraftKings. The last 10 is 19.5 and his vs-opponent scoring is only 7.875 across 8 games, which supports caution despite the recent uptrend.

reboundsUNDER 2.571%HIGH

His season mean is 3.08, but the rebound profile is volatile with a 2.43 standard deviation, which limits confidence on the over. The value prop data also shows the under at 27.6% edge and 62.32 EV per 100 at DraftKings.

assistsUNDER 5.580%HIGH

He averages 5.69 assists on the season and 5.3 over the last 10, but the under remains the better value side with a 39.2% edge and 71.92 EV per 100 at DraftKings. The 2.4 season standard deviation and 5.6 adjusted mean keep this from being a high-confidence over spot.

threesUNDER 2.584%HIGH

Ty Jerome averages 2.85 made threes, but the under on 2.5 is the value side with a 32.0% edge and 58.31 EV per 100 at DraftKings. His last 10 is 3.0, so the recent form is fine, but the book line is still too aggressive relative to the value model.

stocksUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

He averages 1.31 stocks on the season and 1.4 over the last 10, so a 1.5 line would sit above his typical output. The stock profile is not highly stable enough to push confidence much higher.

turnoversOVER 257%MEDIUM

His recent turnover rate is 2.0 in the last 10 and 2.2 in the last 5, which is consistent with a playable over if a projected line is near 2.0. Confidence stays modest because turnover variance is meaningful and there is no sportsbook line provided here.

praUNDER 26.569%MEDIUM

His season production projects to a combined line in the high-20s, but combo props carry extra variance and the model does not show a strong over edge. With the under-friendly market and his lower opponent history, the safer side is under.

paUNDER 24.567%MEDIUM

His season averages put him close to this number, but not comfortably above it, and the recent assist trend has not separated enough to justify an over. Combo variance makes this a conservative under lean.

timelineUNDER 18.5 PTS