AI Model:

Walter Clayton Jr.▲

MEM · PG

PPG

7.2

RPG

2.0

APG

3.9

L5 PPG

8.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.4

7.2

8.6

RPG-0.4

2.0

1.6

APG+1.9

3.9

5.8

SPG-0.1

0.7

0.6

BPG-0.1

0.3

0.2

UNDER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

7.5

SAC

2026-02-23

2026-02-23 vs SAC: 9 pts

GSW

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs GSW: 4 pts

DAL

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs DAL: 11 pts

IND

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs IND: 7 pts

MIN

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIN: 9 pts

POR

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs POR: 12 pts

LAC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs LAC: 2 pts

BKN

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs BKN: 13 pts

CHI

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs CHI: 12 pts

DEN

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DEN: 4 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 7.5FANDUEL

66%

REB

UNDER 2.5STAKE

79%

AST

OVER 4.5FANDUEL

61%

3PM

OVER 0.5BETONLINEAG

58%

STL

OVER 0.5

57%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

84%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

69%

OVER 2.5

60%

PRA

UNDER 13.5BETMGM

64%

P+A

UNDER 11.5

62%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.0

9.5

RPG

1.5

2.4

APG

3.4

6.5

vs BOS (H2H)2 games

PPG

7.0

RPG

1.5

APG

3.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Ryan Nembhard	4	9	58%	+11.9%	medium
Payton Pritchard	3	8	42%	-4.8%	medium
Dylan Harper	4	6	75%	+36.9%	medium
Aaron Holiday	3	6	60%

Assist uptick gives Clayton a path, but scoring remains capped

Walter Clayton Jr. has trended up recently, with his last 5 at 8.6 PPG and 5.8 APG compared to season marks of 7.2 PPG and 3.9 APG. The minutes bump to 24.0 in the last 5 is encouraging, but his season profile still shows modest scoring volume and a high-variance offensive role. Memphis is at home on a back-to-back, which can support usage, but his home splits are weaker than his away numbers, so the projection stays measured. Against Boston, his prior sample is modest at 7.0 PPG and 3.5 APG in 2 games, pointing more toward an under-friendly scoring environment.

Stat Trends

PPG

8.6(↑ from 7.2)

APG

5.8(↑ from 3.9)

RPG

1.6(↓ from 2.0)

STL+BLK

0.8(→ from 1.0)

Key Matchup

Boston’s listed defensive context shows a 106.96 defensive rating, 100 pace, -1.919 scoring suppression, and -0.107 three suppression. Head-to-head, he has averaged 7.0 PPG and 3.5 APG in 2 games, which leans slightly toward a controlled scoring outcome.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	Trend	Actual	Result
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	Points	7.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	40%	4	✓
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	79%HIGH	90%	3	✗
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	Assists	4.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	70%	2	✗
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	60%	0	✗
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	50%	0	✗
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	84%HIGH	70%	0	✓
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	70%	0	✓
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	Turnovers	2.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	40%	2	✗
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	PRA	13.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	30%	9	✓
Walter Clayton Jr.▼	P+A	11.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	30%	6	✓

ML Scout Analysis

R+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

P+A15OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x11/2055%▼

P+R11.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Walter Clayton Jr.

Rebounds UNDER 2.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number relative to his profile: 2.0 rebounds per game this season, 1.5 in the last 5, and 1.5 at home. The line asks for more than his usual output, while his recent form does not show rebound upside to justify the over.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Payton Pritchard	3	8	5	33%	42%
Anfernee Simons	2	3	4	20%	20%
Sam Hauser	3	3	0	0%	0%
Baylor Scheierman	3	3	0	0%	0%
Derrick White	3	2	8	100%	125%

pointsUNDER 7.566%MEDIUM

Season mean is 7.2 points and his home split is only 5.0 PPG, which sits below this number. The recent 8.6 PPG is above season average, but not enough to fully trust an over given the modest scoring volume and Boston matchup data.

reboundsUNDER 2.579%HIGH

He averages 2.0 rebounds on the season and only 1.5 over the last 5. His home split is 1.5 RPG, making 2.5 a tough ask without unusual minutes or bounce.

assistsOVER 4.561%MEDIUM

His last 5 assist average is 5.8 and last 10 is 6.6, well above the season mean of 3.95. The risk is variance, but the recent minutes increase to 24.0 and his away/b2b assist marks support the over more than the season baseline does.

threesOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.95 threes per game on the season and 1.03 away, so he has enough volume to clear 0.5 regularly. The recent 0.8 over the last 5 is slightly down, but still supports at least one made three.

stealsOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 steals on the season and 1.0 over the last 10, so this is a playable low bar. The season standard deviation is high relative to the mean, so confidence stays moderate.

blocksUNDER 0.584%HIGH

He averages only 0.3 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. Clearing 0.5 requires an outlier game, which is not the baseline.

stocksUNDER 1.569%MEDIUM

His season stock average is 0.93 and the last 5 is 0.8, both below 1.5. This prop is naturally volatile, but the current form does not justify an over lean.

turnoversOVER 2.560%MEDIUM

He is at 2.4 turnovers over the last 10 and 3.0 over the last 5, with the season trend also elevated at 2.1 on the last 20. The ball-handling load has risen with minutes, which keeps the over in play.

praUNDER 13.564%MEDIUM

His season-based profile projects to a modest PRA range, and combo props carry extra variance. Even with the recent assist spike, the scoring and rebound components do not fully support a strong over case.

paUNDER 11.562%MEDIUM

Points plus assists is the strongest combo to consider here, but the scoring baseline is still low at 7.2 PPG. If assists settle closer to season norms than the last 5, this line becomes difficult to beat.

timelineUNDER 7.5 PTS