Alvarado’s minutes dip makes the under the sharper angle

He averages 2.5 rebounds for the season, but only 1.1 over the last 10 games and 1.2 over the last 5. With reduced minutes, the rebound ceiling is limited.

His last-10 assist average is 4.2 and last-5 is 5.2, both above the season mean of 3.39. This is the one category where recent form supports an over despite the lower minutes.

He averages 1.51 threes for the season, but only 0.4 over the last 10 and 0.8 over the last 5. Recent volume has dropped sharply, which points to the under.

He averages exactly 1.0 steal per game, but last-10 steals are just 0.6 and last-5 are 0.8. That keeps the over from being attractive at a 1.0 line.

His season stocks average is 1.07 and last-10 is 0.6, well below a 1.5 threshold. The combo variance is also high, so the under is the cleaner side.

He’s only at 0.7 turnovers in the last 10 and 0.8 on the season, so a higher turnover line would be difficult to clear. Lower usage has also kept mistakes down.

Points plus assists comes out to 10.79 for the season, but recent minutes and scoring are both down. Combo props carry more variance, so the under is preferred here.