Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Mobley | 3 | 9 | 0% | -50.0% | medium |
| Tyrese Maxey | 3 | 7 | 75% | +0.0% | medium |
| Jalen Brunson | 2 | 7 | 14% | -35.7% | low |
| Franz Wagner | 3 | 5 | 67% |
Josh Minott’s recent form is better than his season line, with 11.2 PPG over the last 5 compared to 6.2 PPG on the season and a bump in stocks production as well. That said, his last-20 scoring mark is only 4.8 PPG and his home split is weaker at 3.5 PPG in 9.7 MPG, which keeps the long-term expectation modest. The Knicks are on a back-to-back, but there is no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so the main lean comes from Minott’s volatile minutes and regression risk. With his season std of 5.98 points and recent std of 7.42, the scoring range is wide, but the season average still anchors the projection lower than the recent surge.
There is no specific defender matchup data, so no individual defender edge can be assumed. The Knicks’ defense context shows a 110.6 defensive rating, pace of 100, and a slight scoring suppression of -1.087, which does not strongly point to an easy offensive spot.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Josh Minott▼ | Points | 6.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 22 | ✗ |
Josh Minott▼ | Rebounds | 3 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 100% | 5 | ✗ |
Josh Minott▼ | Assists | 1 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | — | 90% | 2 | ✗ |
Josh Minott▼ | 3PM | 1 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 30% | 6 | ✓ |
Josh Minott▼ | Steals | 0.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 1 | ✓ |
Josh Minott▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 2 | ✗ |
Josh Minott▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 3 | ✗ |
Josh Minott▼ | Turnovers | 1 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 3 | ✓ |
Josh Minott▼ | PRA | 10.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 29 | ✗ |
This is the cleanest angle because his season mean is 3.19 RPG, but his recent production has dropped to 1.8 RPG over both the last 5 and last 10. His home split is also very light at 0.9 RPG in 9.7 MPG, making 3 rebounds a tougher number to clear than the market may suggest.
| medium |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 2 | 5 | 0% | -50.0% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | 2 | 7 | 2 | 14% | 14% |
| OG Anunoby | 1 | 4 | 7 | 75% | 88% |
| Mitchell Robinson | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 2 | 2 | 8 | 60% | 60% |
| Jordan Clarkson | 2 | 2 | 3 | 50% | 75% |
His season mean is 6.24 PPG and his last-20 is only 4.8 PPG, so the recent 11.2 PPG burst is running hot versus the longer sample. The 5.98-point season std adds volatility, but the baseline still favors a modest scoring outcome.
He averages 3.19 RPG on the season, but just 1.8 RPG over the last 5 and 1.8 over the last 10. His home split is only 0.9 RPG in 9.7 MPG, which keeps this below a 3.0 expectation.
Minott’s season mean is 0.93 APG and his recent mean is 0.6 APG, so the edge is slight but still below 1.0. His low-volume role makes assists difficult to project upward.
He averages 1.1 made threes per game on the season and 1.2 over the last 5, with 1.1 recent attempts per game in the latest sample. This is a narrow over, but his three-point profile is one of the few categories with consistent volume.
He averages 0.8 steals per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 10. The recent defensive activity supports a modest over despite the usual volatility in steals.
His season mean is only 0.4 BPG and the last-20 mark is 0.3 BPG. Even with a 0.8 BPG last-5 spike, the longer sample says this is still more likely to land under 0.5.
Season stocks average is 1.21 and the last-10 is 1.6, but the last-20 is just 1.2. Because stocks are volatile and his season baseline is below the line, the under is the safer side.
He is at 0.8 turnovers over the last 20 and 1.2 over the last 10, with 1.4 over the last 5. The recent usage bump makes 1.0 a reachable over, though the sample is still small.
His season averages sum to 10.33 PRA, while the last-20 profile is only 6.7 PRA via the component means. Given the combo-prop variance and his limited minutes, the under is the preferred side.