AI Model:

Karl-Anthony Towns▼

NYK · C

PPG

20.0

RPG

11.8

APG

2.9

L5 PPG

24.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.0

20.0

24.0

RPG-0.2

11.8

11.6

APG+1.1

2.9

4.0

SPG+0.1

0.9

1.0

BPG+0.2

0.6

0.8

UNDER 19.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

19.5

MIL

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs MIL: 17 pts

SAS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAS: 12 pts

TOR

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs TOR: 21 pts

OKC

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs OKC: 17 pts

DEN

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DEN: 17 pts

LAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs LAL: 25 pts

LAC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs LAC: 35 pts

UTA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs UTA: 21 pts

GSW

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs GSW: 17 pts

IND

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs IND: 22 pts

Over 19.5

Under 19.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 19.5FANDUEL

60%

REB

OVER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

3PM

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

64%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

56%

OVER 2

55%

PRA

UNDER 32.5FANDUEL

54%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.0

20.8

RPG

12.3

11.5

APG

2.1

3.5

vs BKN (H2H)10 games

PPG

26.1

RPG

11.5

APG

3.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kel'el Ware	4	21	79%	+14.4%	medium
Nic Claxton	4	19	18%	-31.7%	medium
Wendell Carter Jr.	3	19	80%	+20.1%	medium
Neemias Queta	3	16	67%

Towns has a strong rebound floor, but points look capped by recent form

Karl-Anthony Towns is producing a steady all-around line, with season averages of 20.0 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 2.9 assists across 65 games. His recent scoring is slightly above season level at 24.0 points in the last 5, but the broader trend is down and his last-10 points sit at 20.4, which is a better anchor for projection. The matchup history is favorable, as he has averaged 26.1 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.9 assists in 10 games vs this opponent, but the opposing defense also shows a 115.67 defensive rating and a 0.07 scoring suppression. With his team on a back-to-back and Towns listed questionable for personal reasons, the safest angles lean toward lower-variance or under-leaning looks rather than chasing the recent scoring spike.

Stat Trends

PPG

24.0(↑ from 20.0)

RPG

11.6(→ from 11.8)

APG

4.0(↑ from 2.9)

Key Matchup

He has strong head-to-head production vs this opponent, averaging 26.1 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.9 assists in 10 games. The available defender data includes Nic Claxton with 40.0 minutes and 17 points allowed, but no specific defender matchup data beyond that should be assumed.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	Points	19.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	26	✗
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	Rebounds	11.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	15	✓
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	1	✗
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	1	✗
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	40%	4	✓
Karl-Anthony Towns▼	PRA	32.5	UNDER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	42	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R32.5OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

P+A23.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x11/2055%▼

PTS21UNDER41%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

AST2OVER8%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 3x7/2035%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PM1UNDER37%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

3PA3.5UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

PRA35UNDER20%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

REB12UNDER26%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x9/2045%▼

R+A15.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

FTM3UNDER31%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)8/2040%▼

FTA4UNDER20%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Karl-Anthony Towns

Threes OVER 1.5HIGH

This is the best mix of role, recent volume, and price. He averages 1.57 threes on the season, 1.2 over the last 10, and the value data shows a 13.1% edge on FanDuel with 29.63 EV per 100 on the OVER, which is the cleanest positive-EV angle in the dataset.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Nic Claxton	4	19	5	18%	18%
Day'Ron Sharpe	3	7	9	100%	100%
Noah Clowney	3	4	7	33%	50%
Chaney Johnson	1	3	0	0%	0%
Danny Wolf	2	2	2	33%	33%

pointsUNDER 19.560%MEDIUM

His season mean is 20.03, but the value data shows the UNDER on 19.5 has positive edge at multiple books, including a 4.18 EV on FanDuel and 6.92 EV on William Hill and BetOnline. The recent 24.0 in the last 5 is above season by 20%+ and is a candidate for regression, especially with questionable status and a back-to-back context.

reboundsOVER 11.558%MEDIUM

Rebounds are Towns' steadiest category at 11.85 for the season and 12.7 over the last 10, with 11.6 over the last 5. The line sits below his recent and season norms, though confidence is only moderate because his rebound profile has some variance.

assistsOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 2.89 assists on the season and 3.1 over the last 10, with 4.0 over the last 5 and 3.0 at home. The value_props data shows positive edge on the over at 2.5, but the recent standard deviation of 2.39 keeps this from being a high-confidence play.

threesOVER 1.564%MEDIUM

He averages 1.57 made threes this season and has value on the OVER at 1.5 with a 13.1% edge on FanDuel. Recent volume is still solid at 1.2 over the last 10 and 1.4 over the last 20, so this is one of the cleaner positive-EV looks.

stocksUNDER 1.556%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.48, but that category is volatile with a 1.14 standard deviation and only 1.3 over the last 10. With the line effectively around his season baseline, the safer lean is under at a modest confidence.

turnoversOVER 255%MEDIUM

Turnovers are running at 2.4 over the last 20, 2.2 over the last 5, and 2.0 over the last 10. That puts his turnover baseline right at or above a projected 2.0 line, making the over playable but not strong.

praUNDER 32.554%MEDIUM

His season-level PRA using the provided means is about 34.75, but his recent outputs are less dominant in assists and the combo prop carries extra variance. Given the caution on combo props and the questionable status, the under is the more conservative side.

timelineUNDER 19.5 PTS