AI Model:

Mitchell Robinson▲

NYK · C

PPG

5.3

RPG

8.9

APG

1.0

L5 PPG

6.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.5

5.3

6.8

RPG+2.5

8.9

11.4

APG+0.2

1.0

1.2

SPG+0.7

0.9

1.6

BPG-0.3

1.1

0.8

UNDER 6.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

6.5

CLE

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs CLE: 11 pts

MIL

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs MIL: 0 pts

SAS

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs SAS: 4 pts

TOR

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs TOR: 2 pts

DEN

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs DEN: 13 pts

LAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs LAL: 4 pts

UTA

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs UTA: 6 pts

IND

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs IND: 12 pts

GSW

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs GSW: 4 pts

IND

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs IND: 8 pts

Over 6.5

Under 6.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

UNDER 9.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

AST

UNDER 1

69%

BLK

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

60%

STL

OVER 0.8

56%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

57%

P+R

UNDER 17.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.3

6.7

RPG

7.6

9.2

APG

0.7

0.9

vs BKN (H2H)8 games

PPG

8.8

RPG

8.0

APG

0.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Ivica Zubac	3	13	64%	-8.7%	medium
Ryan Kalkbrenner	2	13	75%	+2.7%	low
Wendell Carter Jr.	4	12	60%	-32.3%	medium
Nikola Vučević	3	11	68%

Rebounds remain the cleanest angle for Robinson

Mitchell Robinson’s form is trending up, with his last 5 games at 6.8 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 2.4 stocks, all above his season baseline. His season scoring is modest at 5.3 PPG, but the rebound profile is strong at 8.9 RPG and his recent minutes have held around 19-21.2 MPG. Against this opponent, he has averaged 8.75 points and 8 rebounds across 8 games, while the away split is slightly better for rebounds at 9.2 RPG. The main caution is variance: his rebound standard deviation is 3.86 and combo props are generally less reliable, so the cleaner look is a single-category under/over rather than a volatile combo.

Stat Trends

PPG

6.8(↑ from 5.3)

RPG

11.4(↑ from 8.9)

APG

1.2(→ from 1.0)

Stocks

2.4(↑ from 2.0)

Key Matchup

The matchup data shows no specific defender matchup data to lean on, but the Nets allow a 115.67 defensive rating with a 100 pace. Robinson’s vs-opponent split is solid at 8.75 points and 8 rebounds in 8 games, though his recent output is more rebound-driven than scoring-driven.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Mitchell Robinson▼	Points	6.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✓
Mitchell Robinson▼	Rebounds	9.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	10	✗
Mitchell Robinson▼	Assists	1	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Mitchell Robinson▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✗
Mitchell Robinson▼	Steals	0.8	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Mitchell Robinson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	60%	4	✓
Mitchell Robinson▼	P+R	17.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	13	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PRA13.5UNDER18%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

P+R15.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

P+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

PTS6UNDER21%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA0.5UNDER0%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved HIGH to LOW▼

REB8UNDER24%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x9/2045%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

STL1UNDER45%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x6/2030%Confidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

BLK1UNDER18%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

R+A9.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Mitchell Robinson

Rebounds UNDER 9.5MEDIUM

This line is slightly above his season average of 8.9 and away average of 9.2, so there is not a huge cushion for the over. His last 5 rebounding surge to 11.4 is real, but the 3.86 season standard deviation and the over-skeptical guidance make the under the better risk-adjusted play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Nic Claxton	3	7	6	50%	50%
Day'Ron Sharpe	2	6	2	33%	33%
Chaney Johnson	1	4	0	0%	0%
Nolan Traore	2	1	0	0%	0%
Josh Minott	1	1	3	100%	150%

pointsUNDER 6.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 5.3 points and his away mean is 6.7, both below or near this number, while the last 5 at 6.8 is only slightly above the line. He has also gone under in several recent low-minute games, making 6.5 a reasonable fade.

reboundsUNDER 9.557%MEDIUM

Season mean is 8.9 rebounds and away mean is 9.2, so 9.5 sits just above his core production. His last 5 at 11.4 is hot, but the standard deviation is 3.86 and that makes an over less secure.

assistsUNDER 169%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.96 assists for the season and 1.1 over the last 5, with a season standard deviation of 1.01. That keeps 1.0 very close to true output, and the lower-volume passing role favors the under.

blocksUNDER 1.560%MEDIUM

He averages 1.1 blocks on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, so 1.5 is above his typical level. Recent block rates have been inconsistent, which lowers over confidence.

stealsOVER 0.856%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals on the season and 1.2 over the last 10, with 1.6 in the last 5. The recent trend supports a modest over, though the sample is volatile.

stocksOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.96 and recent marks are 2.1 to 2.4, comfortably above 1.5. This is one of the more stable defensive-volume angles in his profile.

prUNDER 17.555%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is about 14.2, and even with recent improvement he is still only around 18.2 in the last 5. Given the variance and the over-bias warning, the under is the safer lean.

timelineUNDER 6.5 PTS