Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivica Zubac | 3 | 13 | 64% | -8.7% | medium |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 2 | 13 | 75% | +2.7% | low |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 4 | 12 | 60% | -32.3% | medium |
| Nikola Vučević | 3 | 11 | 68% |
Mitchell Robinson’s form is trending up, with his last 5 games at 6.8 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 2.4 stocks, all above his season baseline. His season scoring is modest at 5.3 PPG, but the rebound profile is strong at 8.9 RPG and his recent minutes have held around 19-21.2 MPG. Against this opponent, he has averaged 8.75 points and 8 rebounds across 8 games, while the away split is slightly better for rebounds at 9.2 RPG. The main caution is variance: his rebound standard deviation is 3.86 and combo props are generally less reliable, so the cleaner look is a single-category under/over rather than a volatile combo.
The matchup data shows no specific defender matchup data to lean on, but the Nets allow a 115.67 defensive rating with a 100 pace. Robinson’s vs-opponent split is solid at 8.75 points and 8 rebounds in 8 games, though his recent output is more rebound-driven than scoring-driven.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mitchell Robinson▼ | Points | 6.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 3 | ✓ |
Mitchell Robinson▼ | Rebounds | 9.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 10 | ✗ |
Mitchell Robinson▼ | Assists | 1 | UNDER | 69%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 0 | ✓ |
Mitchell Robinson▼ | Blocks | 1.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 3 | ✗ |
Mitchell Robinson▼ | Steals | 0.8 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
Mitchell Robinson▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 60% | 4 | ✓ |
Mitchell Robinson▼ | P+R | 17.5 | UNDER | 55%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 13 | ✓ |
This line is slightly above his season average of 8.9 and away average of 9.2, so there is not a huge cushion for the over. His last 5 rebounding surge to 11.4 is real, but the 3.86 season standard deviation and the over-skeptical guidance make the under the better risk-adjusted play.
| medium |
| Kel'el Ware | 3 | 10 | 71% | -15.2% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Claxton | 3 | 7 | 6 | 50% | 50% |
| Day'Ron Sharpe | 2 | 6 | 2 | 33% | 33% |
| Chaney Johnson | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Nolan Traore | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Josh Minott | 1 | 1 | 3 | 100% | 150% |
His season mean is 5.3 points and his away mean is 6.7, both below or near this number, while the last 5 at 6.8 is only slightly above the line. He has also gone under in several recent low-minute games, making 6.5 a reasonable fade.
Season mean is 8.9 rebounds and away mean is 9.2, so 9.5 sits just above his core production. His last 5 at 11.4 is hot, but the standard deviation is 3.86 and that makes an over less secure.
He averages only 0.96 assists for the season and 1.1 over the last 5, with a season standard deviation of 1.01. That keeps 1.0 very close to true output, and the lower-volume passing role favors the under.
He averages 1.1 blocks on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, so 1.5 is above his typical level. Recent block rates have been inconsistent, which lowers over confidence.
He averages 0.9 steals on the season and 1.2 over the last 10, with 1.6 in the last 5. The recent trend supports a modest over, though the sample is volatile.
His season stocks average is 1.96 and recent marks are 2.1 to 2.4, comfortably above 1.5. This is one of the more stable defensive-volume angles in his profile.
His season points plus rebounds profile is about 14.2, and even with recent improvement he is still only around 18.2 in the last 5. Given the variance and the over-bias warning, the under is the safer lean.