AI Model:

Ochai Agbaji▲

BKN · SF

PPG

4.9

RPG

2.3

APG

0.8

L5 PPG

9.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.7

4.9

9.6

RPG+0.3

2.3

2.6

APG-0.4

0.8

0.4

SPG+0.6

0.4

1.0

BPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

OVER 4.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

4.5

ATL

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs ATL: 6 pts

DAL

2026-02-24

2026-02-24 vs DAL: 9 pts

SAS

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs SAS: 0 pts

BOS

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs BOS: 8 pts

MIA

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIA: 0 pts

MIA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIA: 6 pts

DET

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs DET: 6 pts

MEM

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs MEM: 18 pts

POR

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs POR: 8 pts

OKC

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs OKC: 10 pts

Over 4.5

Under 4.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 4.5

56%

REB

UNDER 2.5

57%

AST

OVER 0.5

54%

3PM

OVER 0.5

55%

STL

OVER 0.5

52%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

UNDER 1

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.6

5.5

RPG

2.6

1.7

APG

0.9

0.7

vs NYK (H2H)11 games

PPG

4.0

RPG

2.4

APG

1.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Stephen Curry	2	8	29%	-18.6%	low
Jalen Brunson	3	7	70%	+16.4%	medium
Norman Powell	2	7	50%	+0.8%	low
Jordan Miller	1	5	0%

Agbaji’s recent scoring spike looks hard to trust against a tougher defensive setup

Ochai Agbaji is coming off a strong last-5 stretch at 9.6 PPG, but that is well above his season average of 4.9 and likely to cool toward his baseline. His minutes have been steady around 15-16 MPG, and his broader last-10 and last-20 scoring marks at 7.1 and 5.5 PPG suggest a more modest projection than the recent hot run. The matchup environment is mixed: the opponent defense is solid enough with a 110.6 defensive rating and -1.087 scoring suppression, while his head-to-head production vs this opponent is only 4.0 PPG over 11 games. With limited usage, the safer angles lean toward lower-volume outcomes rather than chasing the recent spike.

Stat Trends

PPG

9.6(↑ from 4.9)

RPG

2.6(→ from 2.3)

APG

0.4(↓ from 0.8)

3PM

1.2(↑ from 0.5)

Key Matchup

The opponent has a 110.6 defensive rating with -1.087 scoring suppression and -0.042 three-point suppression, which points to a slightly tougher scoring environment. His historical output against this opponent is only 4.0 PPG and 2.36 RPG across 11 games, so the matchup data does not support a big ceiling.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ochai Agbaji▼	Points	4.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	8	✓
Ochai Agbaji▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	4	✗
Ochai Agbaji▼	Assists	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✓
Ochai Agbaji▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%	2	✓
Ochai Agbaji▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Ochai Agbaji▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Ochai Agbaji▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Ochai Agbaji▼	Turnovers	1	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓

ML Scout Analysis

3PM2UNDER58%gbt_three_pmDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 10x2/1513%▼

3PA4UNDER15%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)4/1527%▼

P+A9UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 2x6/1540%▼

PTS8UNDER18%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 2x6/1540%▼

AST1UNDER39%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)4/1527%▼

R+A4UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)7/1547%▼

PRA12OVER7%gbt_praWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x7/1547%▼

P+R11OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x8/1553%▼

REB3OVER5%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (9/20)6/1540%▼

Featured Pick

Ochai Agbaji

Rebounds UNDER 2.5MEDIUM

His season average is 2.3 rebounds, his last-10 is 2.0, and his matchup history vs this opponent is 2.36 RPG. That gives the under a solid base even though his last-5 has ticked up to 2.6.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Brunson	3	7	7	60%	70%
Jordan Clarkson	3	5	2	20%	20%
Mikal Bridges	3	4	3	25%	38%
Miles McBride	1	2	0	0%	0%
OG Anunoby	3	2	2	0%	0%

pointsOVER 4.556%MEDIUM

His season mean is 4.9 and his last-10 sits at 7.1, so a 4.5 line is reachable even with regression. The recent 9.6 PPG run is above his baseline, but the volume is still modest at 15.7 MPG.

reboundsUNDER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 2.3 rebounds on the season and 2.0 over the last-10, which is below a typical 2.5 line. His last-5 at 2.6 is only slightly above the number and not enough to overcome the lower season baseline.

assistsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

Agbaji’s season assist mean is 0.76 and his last-10 is 0.7, so even a low line is plausible. The variance is high for a small role, but this is still more playable than a larger assist number.

threesOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

He averages 0.51 threes per game this season and 1.2 over the last-5, making 0.5 a reasonable target. The away mean is 0.59, which supports a modest over lean if minutes stay near his recent level.

stealsOVER 0.552%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 0.4, but the last-5 jumps to 1.0 and his combined stocks trend is 1.6 in that same span. This is a volatile category, so the over is only a small lean.

blocksUNDER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages just 0.3 blocks on the season and 0.4 over the last-10. That is not enough consistent volume to justify an over at a half-block line.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks mean is 0.73 and last-10 is 1.0, both below 1.5. Even with a recent uptick, this remains a high-variance combo that is better faded at a typical line.

turnoversUNDER 160%MEDIUM

He is at 0.8 turnovers per game on the season and 0.9 over the last-10. With limited ballhandling, the under is the cleaner side at a 1.0 line.

timelineOVER 4.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Agbaji’s recent scoring spike looks hard to trust against a tougher defensive setup

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

OVER 4.5 PTS