Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson | 3 | 16 | 53% | -1.2% | medium |
| Kevin Durant | 2 | 14 | 61% | +3.6% | low |
| Brandon Ingram | 3 | 13 | 73% | +18.1% | medium |
| Josh Giddey | 4 | 13 | 46% |
OG Anunoby is coming in with solid form: his last 5 averages are 21.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 2.6 APG, but his season line is still more modest at 16.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 2.2 APG. The matchup data is mixed, with no specific defender matchup data that we should guess around, while Brooklyn’s team context shows a 115.67 defensive rating and a 100 pace, plus the Knicks are on a back-to-back, which can temper ceiling outcomes. His season-long threes volume is 2.2 per game and the value screen is strongest on 2.5 made threes, so the cleanest angle is his perimeter volume rather than a chase on points. Because his recent scoring is running above season average, regression risk is real and pushes us toward a more conservative points stance.
No specific defender matchup data is available, so this leans on team context only. Brooklyn’s 115.67 defensive rating and 100 pace are not a strong suppression spot, but the Knicks being on a back-to-back can modestly cap upside.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OG Anunoby▼ | Points | 17.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 16 | ✓ |
OG Anunoby▼ | Rebounds | 5.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 3 | ✗ |
OG Anunoby▼ | Assists | 2.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
OG Anunoby▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | OVER | 68%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 1 | ✗ |
OG Anunoby▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 2 | ✗ |
OG Anunoby▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 1 | ✓ |
OG Anunoby▼ | STL+BLK | 2.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 3 | ✗ |
OG Anunoby▼ | PRA | 25.5 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 20 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest combination of form and value: he averages 2.2 made threes on the season, 2.8 over the last 5, and the value screen flags multiple books with strong positive edge on the over. With an adjusted mean of 2.4, he is close enough to the line that the recent shot volume supports the play without requiring an outlier performance.
| medium |
| Kawhi Leonard | 2 | 13 | 64% | +5.9% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Clowney | 2 | 6 | 5 | 40% | 50% |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 2 | 6 | 17 | 88% | 106% |
| Danny Wolf | 2 | 6 | 5 | 50% | 63% |
| Josh Minott | 1 | 5 | 10 | 80% | 100% |
| Nic Claxton | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 16.9 PPG, below the 17.5 line, and the value data shows a positive edge on the under at this number. The last 5 at 21.8 PPG is well above season pace, so some regression is likely.
He is averaging 5.3 RPG on the season and 5.6 over the last 5, so this is close to the line but supported by recent form. Variance is moderate, so this is not a high-confidence play.
His season average is 2.2 APG and his recent mean is 2.0, both below 2.5. The line is a bit inflated relative to his typical output.
His season average of 2.2 made threes and last 5 average of 2.8 both support clearing 2.5. The value props also show strong positive edge on the over, with an adjusted mean of 2.4.
He averages 1.7 steals on the season, but the recent 5-game average is only 1.0 and the line is 1.5. That makes the under the safer side despite his strong defensive activity overall.
His season average of 0.7 blocks is above 0.5, so the over is viable on pure rate. Still, blocks can swing quickly, which keeps confidence modest.
His season stocks average is 2.36 and recent mean is 1.9, so 2.5 is a bit aggressive. This is a volatility-prone category, so the under is the more conservative look.
His season profile projects to 24.4 PRA using 16.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.2 assists, which sits just below the line. Combo props carry extra variance, so we avoid overconfidence here.