Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyus Jones | 3 | 9 | 50% | -10.2% | medium |
| Luke Kennard | 2 | 5 | 100% | +56.5% | low |
| Drake Powell | 2 | 5 | 58% | +6.5% | low |
| Dru Smith | 2 | 5 | 0% |
Tyler Kolek’s season line is modest at 4.5 points, 1.7 rebounds, and 2.9 assists in 12.5 MPG, but his recent playing time has dropped sharply to 6.1 MPG over the last 10 and 7.2 MPG over the last 5. That makes his current production profile much more aligned with a reserve who needs efficiency and minutes to beat numbers, especially since his last-5 scoring is just 1.0 PPG. The matchup context doesn’t create a clear boost, and his head-to-head sample versus this opponent is only 2.6 PPG and 2.4 APG across 5 games. With a back-to-back for the Knicks and no specific defender matchup data, the safest angle is leaning under on volume-based props.
The opponent data shows a 115.67 defensive rating and a 100 pace, while Kolek’s 5-game history vs this opponent is only 2.6 PPG and 2.4 APG in 10.6 MPG. Key defender data is available, but no specific defender matchup data strongly changes the projection.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tyler Kolek▼ | Points | 4.5 | UNDER | 83%HIGH | 1/2 | 90% |
Tyler Kolek▼ | Rebounds | 1.5 | UNDER | 78%HIGH | 2/2 | 80% |
Tyler Kolek▼ | Assists | 3 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 80% |
Tyler Kolek▼ | 3PM | 0.5 | OVER | 52%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% |
Tyler Kolek▼ | STL+BLK | 0.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | — | 90% |
Tyler Kolek▼ | Turnovers | 0.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | — | 80% |
Tyler Kolek▼ | PRA | 8 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 90% |
Tyler Kolek▼ | P+A | 7.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% |
This is the cleanest read because his season average is 4.5 PPG, but his recent form has fallen to 2.1 PPG over the last 10 and 1.0 PPG over the last 5. With minutes down to 6.1 recently and his head-to-head scoring at 2.6 PPG, the under has the best combination of form and workload support.
| low |
| T.J. McConnell | 2 | 4 | 25% | -18.5% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Powell | 2 | 5 | 7 | 50% | 58% |
| Terance Mann | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Tyson Etienne | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Tyrese Martin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Ziaire Williams | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season average is 4.5 PPG, but the recent drops to 2.1 PPG over the last 10 and 1.0 PPG over the last 5 show clear regression in scoring volume. With minutes down to 6.1 recently, he needs an outlier game to clear this.
He averages 1.7 RPG for the season, but only 0.5 RPG over the last 10 and 0.6 over the last 5. The recent minute shrinkage makes rebound volume hard to trust.
His season mean is 2.89 APG and last-10 mark is 2.1 APG, so this sits near the middle of his range. The back-to-back context and recent 6.1 MPG reduce upside enough to favor the under.
He averages 0.69 threes per game on the season and 0.5 over the last 10, so he still has a path to one made three even in limited run. This is a low-confidence lean because the recent volume is light.
His season stocks average is only 0.45, and the recent mark is 0.3. That makes a 1+ stocks outcome less likely unless he spikes in defensive stats.
He is at just 0.3 turnovers per game over the last 10 and 0.0 over the last 5, so the low-minute role is limiting turnover chances. This is a safer under than most volume props.
His season PRA is 8.9, but recent minutes and production have fallen to a much lower level. Because combo props carry more variance, the under is still the cleaner side here.
Points plus assists seasonally come to 7.4, and recent scoring is too weak to comfortably project an over. The back-to-back context also limits the chance of a bigger workload.