AI Model:

Ziaire Williams▼

BKN · SF

PPG

9.6

RPG

2.4

APG

1.0

L5 PPG

11.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.4

9.6

11.0

RPG+0.2

2.4

2.6

APG+0.2

1.0

1.2

SPG+0.2

1.2

1.4

BPG-0.4

0.4

0.0

OVER 9.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

9.5

SAS

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs SAS: 2 pts

BOS

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs BOS: 5 pts

CLE

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs CLE: 4 pts

MIA

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MIA: 16 pts

MIA

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIA: 15 pts

DET

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs DET: 23 pts

MEM

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs MEM: 11 pts

PHI

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs PHI: 9 pts

POR

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs POR: 7 pts

OKC

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs OKC: 5 pts

Over 9.5

Under 9.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 9.5

58%

REB

UNDER 2.5

63%

AST

UNDER 1

60%

3PM

OVER 1.5

56%

STL

OVER 1

57%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

70%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

59%

UNDER 1

62%

PRA

UNDER 13

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.5

10.0

RPG

3.2

1.6

APG

1.7

1.2

vs NYK (H2H)7 games

PPG

12.0

RPG

3.7

APG

1.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Desmond Bane	3	10	40%	-2.5%	medium
James Harden	3	9	33%	-9.2%	medium
Jalen Brunson	3	8	64%	+12.0%	medium
Anfernee Simons	4	8	44%

Ziaire Williams’ scoring outlook is playable, but the hand issue adds risk

Ziaire Williams is averaging 9.6 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 1.0 assists on the season while playing 22.8 minutes per game, with his last 5 bumping to 11.0 points and 1.4 stocks. The recent scoring is a touch above his season norm, but his overall trend is down and his recent game log includes several low-output nights, including 5, 7, and 9 points. Against this opponent he has averaged 12.0 points and 3.71 rebounds in 7 games, but the injury note lists him as questionable with left hand soreness, which raises volatility. The Knicks defense context is not elite, but the matchup data does not provide a specific defender edge we can lean on beyond no specific defender matchup data.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.0(↑ from 9.6)

RPG

2.6(→ from 2.4)

APG

1.2(→ from 1.0)

Stocks

1.4(→ from 1.6)

Key Matchup

There is no specific defender matchup data to target, so the analysis leans on the opponent profile and his own splits. The Knicks show a 110.6 defensive rating and -1.087 scoring suppression, which is not a strong scoring environment for upside.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Ziaire Williams▼	Points	9.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	17	✓
Ziaire Williams▼	Rebounds	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	4	✗
Ziaire Williams▼	Assists	1	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✗
Ziaire Williams▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	2	✓
Ziaire Williams▼	Steals	1	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	1	✗
Ziaire Williams▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	70%HIGH	—	100%	0	✓
Ziaire Williams▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	—	40%	1	✗
Ziaire Williams▼	Turnovers	1	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Ziaire Williams▼	PRA	13	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	22	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PRA18.5UNDER34%gbt_praDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTM2.5UNDER21%gbtDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

STL1.5UNDER31%gbt_stealsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

FTA3UNDER19%gbtDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

R+A4UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

P+A13OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

PTS11UNDER17%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

AST1UNDER3%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PM1UNDER13%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 5x7/2035%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER▼

3PA3UNDER5%gbtWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

P+R14OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

REB2OVER19%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

Featured Pick

Ziaire Williams

Rebounds UNDER 2.5HIGH

His season average is 2.4 rebounds, last 10 is 1.7, and away average is 1.96, all below a typical 2.5 line. That gives the under the cleanest statistical case, especially with the questionable hand injury adding downside risk.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jalen Brunson	3	8	14	55%	64%
Mikal Bridges	2	4	0	0%	0%
Jordan Clarkson	3	3	2	33%	33%
Landry Shamet	3	3	3	25%	38%
OG Anunoby	3	3	3	50%	75%

pointsOVER 9.558%MEDIUM

Season mean is 9.6 and his home mean is 10.31, so a 9.5 line is close to fair. The last 5 at 11.0 supports the over, but the questionable hand injury and recent volatility keep confidence modest.

reboundsUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages only 2.4 rebounds on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, which is below a 2.5 line. His away rebound average is just 1.96, adding more support to the under.

assistsUNDER 160%MEDIUM

Season mean is 0.98 and the last 10 is 1.6, but that recent spike comes with a very high standard deviation of 1.29 season-wide. With limited playmaking volume, the under is the safer lean if the line is 1.0.

threesOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.57 threes per game on the season and 1.4 recently, with 1.62 at home. The edge is thin because his recent 3-point production has been inconsistent.

stealsOVER 157%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 steals per game on the season and 1.3 over the last 10, so 1.0 is a reachable threshold. The recent game log also shows multiple 1-2 steal outings.

blocksUNDER 0.570%HIGH

He averages only 0.4 blocks per game on the season and 0.0 over the last 5 and last 10. That makes 0.5 a clear under despite some minor season-long contribution.

stocksOVER 1.559%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.61, with 1.3 over the last 10 and 1.4 over the last 5. Because the line sits below his season mean, the over is viable, but the recent dip limits confidence.

turnoversUNDER 162%MEDIUM

He has 1.0 turnovers per game on the season and 0.8 over the last 10. That points to a low-volume ballhandling role, which supports the under if the book hangs 1.0.

praUNDER 1361%MEDIUM

His season PRA estimate from the provided averages is about 13.0, but combo props are higher variance and his recent rebounding has softened. With the questionable tag, the under is the more conservative lean.

timelineOVER 9.5 PTS