Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Wells | 3 | 7 | 67% | +10.0% | medium |
| Jeremiah Fears | 1 | 7 | 0% | -45.6% | low |
| Scoot Henderson | 3 | 6 | 30% | -15.6% | medium |
| Will Richard | 3 | 6 | 0% |
Hyland’s recent form is stronger than his season baseline, with 12.8 PPG over his last 5 games versus 7.8 PPG for the season and 11.1 over the last 10. He’s also seeing a slight minutes bump at 18.8 MPG in the last 5, but his season average of 15.5 MPG and prior head-to-head mark of 7.6 PPG vs this opponent keep the projection in check. The matchup context is not especially inviting: the opponent allows a 0.461 scoring suppression and 0.813 three-point suppression, which adds pressure on a volume-dependent guard. Overall, the recent surge is real, but the season-long profile and matchup data still point to a more cautious stance on overs.
No specific defender matchup data. The opponent context is still relevant, with a 0.461 scoring suppression and 0.813 three-point suppression that makes Hyland’s scoring and perimeter production harder to sustain.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bones Hyland▼ | Points | 12.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 17 | ✗ |
Bones Hyland▼ | Assists | 3.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 0 | ✓ |
Bones Hyland▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 90% | 0 | ✓ |
Bones Hyland▼ | 3PM | 2.5 | UNDER | 70%HIGH | 1/2 | 60% | 3 | ✗ |
Bones Hyland▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 74%HIGH | — | 90% | 2 | ✗ |
Bones Hyland▼ | Turnovers | 2 | OVER | 61%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 2 | ✗ |
Bones Hyland▼ | P+A | 16.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 17 | ✗ |
Bones Hyland▼ | PRA | 18.5 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 17 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest number to attack because his season mean is only 7.8 points, and the value data repeatedly shows strong under edges at 12.5 and even 11.5. The last-5 scoring surge to 12.8 is notable, but it’s a clear over-extension versus his season baseline, so regression risk is high.
| medium |
| Bruce Brown | 3 | 6 | 50% | +4.4% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoot Henderson | 3 | 6 | 12 | 30% | 30% |
| Matisse Thybulle | 3 | 4 | 2 | 33% | 33% |
| Blake Wesley | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Jrue Holiday | 4 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
| Vít Krejčí | 2 | 2 | 2 | 33% | 33% |
His season mean is 7.83 points, and even with a 12.8 PPG last-5 spike, that level is well above his typical production. The value data also flags UNDER on 12.5 at multiple books, with the best model edge showing a strong lean to the under.
Hyland averages 2.63 assists for the season and 2.3 over the last 10, both below the 3.5 line. The recent bump to 2.8 in the last 5 is not enough to outweigh the season-long baseline.
He averages just 1.66 rebounds per game, with only 1.1 over the last 10. His rebound profile has stayed low all season, making 2.5 a difficult number to clear.
He averages 1.47 made threes on the season and 2.2 over the last 5, but that recent uptick still sits below 2.5. The opponent’s 0.813 three suppression strengthens the under case.
Hyland’s season average for stocks is 0.75 and his last-10 mark is 0.5, both well below 1.5. This is a high bar for a rotation guard with limited defensive counting stats.
His recent turnover volume has been 1.6 in the last 5 and 1.3 in the last 10, while his season profile is not far from that range. With the recent usage bump, a 2.0 line is reachable.
His season points-plus-assists profile is modest relative to this number, with 7.8 PPG and 2.6 APG. Recent form helps, but the combo prop still carries more variance and the season baseline is not supportive enough for an over.
His season PRA profile is built off 7.8 points, 1.7 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, which is generally below this threshold. Combo props are higher-variance, so the safer side is the under.