AI Model:

Jerami Grant▼

POR · SF

PPG

18.6

RPG

3.5

APG

2.3

L5 PPG

14.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.0

18.6

14.6

RPG-0.5

3.5

3.0

APG-0.3

2.3

2.0

SPG-0.1

0.7

0.6

BPG-0.4

0.6

0.2

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

16.5

CHA

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs CHA: 21 pts

ATL

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs ATL: 4 pts

MEM

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MEM: 30 pts

HOU

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs HOU: 21 pts

IND

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs IND: 21 pts

CHA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHA: 24 pts

UTA

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs UTA: 9 pts

PHI

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs PHI: 20 pts

BKN

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs BKN: 12 pts

IND

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs IND: 8 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5FANDUEL

62%

REB

UNDER 3.5FANDUEL

60%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

64%

3PM

UNDER 2.5FANDUEL

66%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

P+A

UNDER 18.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

P+R

UNDER 19.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.0

17.6

RPG

3.2

3.4

APG

1.9

2.0

vs MIN (H2H)16 games

PPG

16.6

RPG

2.9

APG

2.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jimmy Butler III	3	12	67%	+21.2%	medium
Julius Randle	4	11	50%	-8.0%	medium
GG Jackson	3	10	45%	-9.1%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	4	10	90%

Grant’s recent scoring dip makes the unders playable despite steady minutes

Jerami Grant is averaging 18.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, and 2.3 APG on the season across 30 minutes, but his last-5 has slipped to 14.6 PPG with 3.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists. His recent form is down, and the current market lines sit near or above his season baselines, which creates more room for regression than breakout. Minnesota’s defense profile shows a 114.87 defensive rating, and there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on. With his recent scoring well below season levels and combo props carrying extra variance, the safer lean is toward the under in points-based markets.

Stat Trends

PPG

14.6(↓ from 18.6)

RPG

3.0(↓ from 3.5)

APG

2.0(↓ from 2.3)

STL+BLK

0.8(↓ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. Minnesota’s opponent profile shows a 114.87 defensive rating with no strong three-point suppression signal, so the matchup is more neutral than elite from the data provided.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jerami Grant▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	26	✗
Jerami Grant▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	5	✗
Jerami Grant▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✗
Jerami Grant▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	4	✗
Jerami Grant▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	30%	1	✓
Jerami Grant▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%	4	✗
Jerami Grant▼	P+A	18.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	27	✗
Jerami Grant▼	P+R	19.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	31	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS19.5UNDER21%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A19OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

AST1.5OVER3%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

3PM2.5UNDER36%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

P+R21OVER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)11/2055%▼

PRA23UNDER30%gbt_praWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

R+A5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

3PA6UNDER29%gbtAvoid (7/20)7/2035%▼

REB3UNDER14%gbt_reboundsAvoid (6/20)8/2040%▼

FTM2UNDER32%gbtAvoid (6/20)7/2035%Confidence moved LOW to MEDIUM▼

FTA2UNDER13%gbtAvoid (6/20)8/2040%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW; Scorecard changed -2.0▼

Featured Pick

Jerami Grant

Points UNDER 16.5MEDIUM

Grant’s season scoring is 18.6 PPG, but his last-5 has fallen to 14.6 PPG and the trend is clearly down. The 16.5 number is still high relative to that recent form, and the data gives more support to a controlled scoring night than a bounce-back spike.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Julius Randle	4	11	9	38%	50%
Jaden McDaniels	4	10	9	80%	90%
Naz Reid	3	7	3	0%	0%
Donte DiVincenzo	4	7	2	33%	33%
Anthony Edwards	3	5	13	56%	72%

pointsUNDER 16.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 18.6, but the last-5 has dropped to 14.6 and the recent trend is down. With a 16.5 line, the market is still asking for a score closer to his full-season level than his current form.

reboundsUNDER 3.560%MEDIUM

Grant is at 3.5 RPG on the season and 3.0 over the last 5, so 3.5 is slightly above his recent average. His rebound production is fairly modest, and the line leaves little margin for error.

assistsOVER 1.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 2.28 APG and last-5 is 2.0 APG, both comfortably above 1.5. This is the cleanest volume-based over because the line sits well below his typical distribution.

threesUNDER 2.566%MEDIUM

He averages 2.36 made threes on the season and 2.6 over the last 5, but the season number is still below the 2.5 line. Given the over-bias warning and his variance, the under is the safer side.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.6 blocks per game, so a 0.5 line is slightly favorable. The last-5 is only 0.2, though, which keeps confidence moderate rather than strong.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

He averages 1.26 stocks on the season and 1.3 over the last 10, both below a typical 1.5 threshold. The recent last-5 dipped to 0.8, reinforcing the under.

paUNDER 18.555%MEDIUM

Points plus assists sit at 20.9 on the season, but recent scoring decline has dragged that down. Combo props add variance, so this is only a modest lean to the under.

prUNDER 19.557%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds is 22.1, but the recent drop in points makes this less comfortable than the season average suggests. The line is close enough to his current form that the under is preferable.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS