AI Model:

Julius Randle▲

MIN · PF

PPG

21.1

RPG

6.8

APG

5.1

L5 PPG

21.2

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.1

21.1

21.2

RPG-1.8

6.8

5.0

APG-0.9

5.1

4.2

SPG+0.7

1.1

1.8

BPG0.0

0.2

UNDER 23.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

23.5

DEN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DEN: 14 pts

MEM

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MEM: 23 pts

TOR

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs TOR: 17 pts

ORL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ORL: 14 pts

LAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs LAL: 14 pts

LAC

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs LAC: 11 pts

GSW

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs GSW: 10 pts

OKC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs OKC: 32 pts

PHX

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHX: 32 pts

UTA

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs UTA: 21 pts

Over 23.5

Under 23.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 23.5FANDUEL

82%

REB

OVER 6.5DRAFTKINGS

59%

AST

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

57%

3PM

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

68%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

72%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

56%

P+R

UNDER 30.5FANDUEL

64%

R+A

UNDER 11.5FANDUEL

63%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

21.6

14.9

RPG

7.2

6.1

APG

4.2

4.9

vs POR (H2H)13 games

PPG

22.2

RPG

8.4

APG

4.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Rui Hachimura	4	23	70%	+12.0%	medium
Nikola Jokić	4	22	73%	+18.7%	medium
DeMar DeRozan	4	16	50%	-2.5%	medium
Jerami Grant	4	15	50%

Home split supports Randle, but points ceiling looks capped

Julius Randle is coming in with a season line of 21.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 5.1 APG over 69 games, and his home production is stronger than his away split at 21.6 PPG versus 14.9 away. The recent scoring form is mixed: his last 5 are 21.2 PPG, but his last 10 and last 20 both sit below season level at 18.8 and 18.6. This matchup is not a pure shootout spot, with the opponent defense showing a 117.38 defensive rating, 100 pace, and 0.461 scoring suppression, so volume-based overs should be treated carefully.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.2(→ from 21.1)

RPG

5.0(↓ from 6.8)

APG

4.2(↓ from 5.1)

Stocks

2.0(↑ from 1.4)

Key Matchup

The opponent profile lists a 117.38 defensive rating, 100 pace, and 0.461 scoring suppression, which points to a more controlled scoring environment. Key defender data is available, but it is not clear which player will be the primary matchup winner, so there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Julius Randle▼	Points	23.5	UNDER	82%HIGH	1/2	80%	19	✓
Julius Randle▼	Rebounds	6.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	5	✗
Julius Randle▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	4	✓
Julius Randle▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Julius Randle▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	—	70%	1	✓
Julius Randle▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	40%	1	✗
Julius Randle▼	P+R	30.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	24	✓
Julius Randle▼	R+A	11.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	9	✓

ML Scout Analysis

REB6.5OVER1%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 2x12/2060%▼

P+A22.5OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

PTS23.5UNDER8%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (10/20)6/2030%+17.6% edge▼

PRA35.5UNDER36%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)6/2030%+14.4% edge▼

R+A11OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)10/2050%▼

3PA3UNDER42%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)9/2045%▼

FTA6.5UNDER17%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

P+R25UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 4x8/2040%▼

FTM4UNDER29%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

AST4.5UNDER27%gbt_assistsAvoid (7/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%+5.3% edge▼

STL1UNDER56%gbt_stealsAvoid (7/20)6/2030%▼

Featured Pick

Julius Randle

Points UNDER 23.5HIGH

This is the strongest edge in the data: his season scoring mean is 21.1, his last 10 are 18.8, and the value sheet shows the UNDER at 0.792 projected probability versus a 0.526 implied probability. The home split is solid, but not enough to offset the season-long and recent scoring trend at this elevated line.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jerami Grant	4	15	14	43%	50%
Toumani Camara	4	9	4	33%	33%
Deni Avdija	3	6	0	0%	0%
Donovan Clingan	4	5	6	67%	100%
Jrue Holiday	4	5	3	14%	21%

pointsUNDER 23.582%HIGH

His season mean is 21.1 PPG and his recent mean is 18.8, both below 23.5. The value data also shows UNDER at a 0.792 projected probability against an implied 0.541, with the adjusted mean at 20.4.

reboundsOVER 6.559%MEDIUM

Randle is averaging 6.8 RPG on the season and 6.9 over the last 10, which sits right above the 6.5 line. The spot is supported by a strong home rebound split at 7.2 RPG, though the edge is modest.

assistsUNDER 4.557%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 5.1, but the recent mean is down to 3.9 and his last 10 are 3.9 as well. The line is close, but the recent distribution and conservative combo-prop environment make the under slightly preferable.

threesUNDER 1.568%MEDIUM

He averages 1.38 made threes per game on the season, but only 0.9 over the last 10 and 0.9 over the last 20. With regression signals and lower recent volume, the under is the cleaner side.

stealsUNDER 1.572%HIGH

His season steals average is 1.1, but the recent trend is volatile and the line at 1.5 is above his usual baseline. The under aligns with his broader profile despite the strong last-5 spike.

stocksOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.38 stocks on the season and 1.5 over the last 10, with a last-5 mark of 2.0. This is a higher-variance category, so confidence stays moderate.

prUNDER 30.564%MEDIUM

Using the season means, his points-plus-rebounds profile is 27.9 (21.1 + 6.8), below 30.5. Recent scoring has also softened, which keeps the under viable even with decent rebound stability.

raUNDER 11.563%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists total is 11.9, essentially on the line, but the recent assist drop to 4.2 and last 10 rebound mean of 6.9 create some downside risk. With combo props carrying extra variance, the under gets the nod.

timelineUNDER 23.5 PTS