Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rui Hachimura | 4 | 23 | 70% | +12.0% | medium |
| Nikola Jokić | 4 | 22 | 73% | +18.7% | medium |
| DeMar DeRozan | 4 | 16 | 50% | -2.5% | medium |
| Jerami Grant | 4 | 15 | 50% |
Julius Randle is coming in with a season line of 21.1 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 5.1 APG over 69 games, and his home production is stronger than his away split at 21.6 PPG versus 14.9 away. The recent scoring form is mixed: his last 5 are 21.2 PPG, but his last 10 and last 20 both sit below season level at 18.8 and 18.6. This matchup is not a pure shootout spot, with the opponent defense showing a 117.38 defensive rating, 100 pace, and 0.461 scoring suppression, so volume-based overs should be treated carefully.
The opponent profile lists a 117.38 defensive rating, 100 pace, and 0.461 scoring suppression, which points to a more controlled scoring environment. Key defender data is available, but it is not clear which player will be the primary matchup winner, so there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Julius Randle▼ | Points | 23.5 | UNDER | 82%HIGH | 1/2 | 80% | 19 | ✓ |
Julius Randle▼ | Rebounds | 6.5 | OVER | 59%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 5 | ✗ |
Julius Randle▼ | Assists | 4.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 4 | ✓ |
Julius Randle▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Julius Randle▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | — | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
Julius Randle▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 1 | ✗ |
Julius Randle▼ | P+R | 30.5 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 24 | ✓ |
Julius Randle▼ | R+A | 11.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 9 | ✓ |
This is the strongest edge in the data: his season scoring mean is 21.1, his last 10 are 18.8, and the value sheet shows the UNDER at 0.792 projected probability versus a 0.526 implied probability. The home split is solid, but not enough to offset the season-long and recent scoring trend at this elevated line.
| medium |
| Precious Achiuwa | 4 | 14 | 69% | +14.5% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerami Grant | 4 | 15 | 14 | 43% | 50% |
| Toumani Camara | 4 | 9 | 4 | 33% | 33% |
| Deni Avdija | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Donovan Clingan | 4 | 5 | 6 | 67% | 100% |
| Jrue Holiday | 4 | 5 | 3 | 14% | 21% |
His season mean is 21.1 PPG and his recent mean is 18.8, both below 23.5. The value data also shows UNDER at a 0.792 projected probability against an implied 0.541, with the adjusted mean at 20.4.
Randle is averaging 6.8 RPG on the season and 6.9 over the last 10, which sits right above the 6.5 line. The spot is supported by a strong home rebound split at 7.2 RPG, though the edge is modest.
His season assist average is 5.1, but the recent mean is down to 3.9 and his last 10 are 3.9 as well. The line is close, but the recent distribution and conservative combo-prop environment make the under slightly preferable.
He averages 1.38 made threes per game on the season, but only 0.9 over the last 10 and 0.9 over the last 20. With regression signals and lower recent volume, the under is the cleaner side.
His season steals average is 1.1, but the recent trend is volatile and the line at 1.5 is above his usual baseline. The under aligns with his broader profile despite the strong last-5 spike.
He averages 1.38 stocks on the season and 1.5 over the last 10, with a last-5 mark of 2.0. This is a higher-variance category, so confidence stays moderate.
Using the season means, his points-plus-rebounds profile is 27.9 (21.1 + 6.8), below 30.5. Recent scoring has also softened, which keeps the under viable even with decent rebound stability.
His season rebounds plus assists total is 11.9, essentially on the line, but the recent assist drop to 4.2 and last 10 rebound mean of 6.9 create some downside risk. With combo props carrying extra variance, the under gets the nod.