AI Model:

Robert Williams III▼

POR · C

PPG

6.8

RPG

6.9

APG

1.1

L5 PPG

6.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG0.0

6.8

RPG+2.5

6.9

9.4

APG-0.3

1.1

0.8

SPG0.0

0.6

BPG+0.4

1.6

2.0

UNDER 6.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

6.5

DEN

2026-02-20

2026-02-20 vs DEN: 2 pts

PHX

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs PHX: 4 pts

CHI

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs CHI: 14 pts

CHA

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs CHA: 5 pts

MEM

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MEM: 20 pts

HOU

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs HOU: 8 pts

IND

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs IND: 12 pts

CHA

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHA: 6 pts

PHI

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs PHI: 6 pts

IND

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs IND: 2 pts

Over 6.5

Under 6.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 6.5

64%

REB

OVER 6.5

60%

AST

UNDER 1

69%

BLK

OVER 1.5

62%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

58%

UNDER 1

61%

PRA

UNDER 15.5

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

8.8

7.7

RPG

7.8

8.4

APG

1.6

0.8

vs MIN (H2H)7 games

PPG

10.0

RPG

7.0

APG

1.6

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Nikola Jokić	4	13	38%	-35.9%	medium
Dylan Cardwell	2	8	100%	+28.8%	low
Andre Drummond	2	6	20%	-51.2%	low
Ryan Kalkbrenner	1	5	50%

Block-heavy profile with modest scoring upside in a tough frontcourt matchup

Robert Williams III has been trending slightly down in the game log sample, but his rebounding and rim protection remain strong, with 8.6 rebounds and 2.9 stocks over the last 10 games. His season averages of 6.8 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks show a low-usage, high-impact profile that can still clear defensive stats even when scoring stays quiet. Against Minnesota, the matchup data points to a difficult interior environment, and the available defender data includes Rudy Gobert, who has allowed just 6 points in 6.7 minutes of coverage with a 0.333 FG% allowed. With his minutes usually in the 17-21 range, the safer projections lean toward rebounds and defensive events rather than points.

Stat Trends

PPG

6.8(→ from 6.8)

RPG

9.4(↑ from 6.9)

BPG

2.0(↑ from 1.6)

Key Matchup

The available defender data includes Rudy Gobert, who has limited scoring efficiency in the tracked minutes, allowing 6 points on 0.333 FG%. Minnesota's opponent defense profile shows a 114.87 defensive rating and a -0.112 scoring suppression mark, which does not create an easy scoring environment.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Robert Williams III▼	Points	6.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	2	✓
Robert Williams III▼	Rebounds	6.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	12	✓
Robert Williams III▼	Assists	1	UNDER	69%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	0	✓
Robert Williams III▼	Blocks	1.5	OVER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	0	✗
Robert Williams III▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✓
Robert Williams III▼	Turnovers	1	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	60%	3	✗
Robert Williams III▼	PRA	15.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	14	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+A8UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)6/2030%▼

PRA14.5UNDER8%gbt_praWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x10/2050%▼

R+A8.5UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (9/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

P+R15UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 6x7/2035%▼

PTS6UNDER8%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (8/20)UNDER 6x6/2030%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

REB6.5OVER5%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

BLK1.5UNDER13%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

FTA0.5UNDER14%gbtAvoid (7/20)9/2045%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Confidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

Featured Pick

Robert Williams III

Blocks OVER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest angle because Robert Williams III has a season average of 1.6 blocks, a last-10 average of 2.1, and a last-5 average of 2.0. The defensive stat is supported by his recent form and is less dependent on scoring efficiency than his other props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Rudy Gobert	2	4	4	50%	50%
Kyle Anderson	1	2	0	0%	0%
Julius Randle	2	1	0	0%	0%
Naz Reid	1	1	5	100%	125%
Ayo Dosunmu	2	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 6.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 6.81 points and the last 10 is 7.9, but the recent scoring output is volatile and the role remains low-usage. The tougher interior matchup plus modest minutes profile makes the under slightly preferable.

reboundsOVER 6.560%MEDIUM

He is averaging 6.9 rebounds on the season and 8.6 over the last 10, with 9.4 over the last 5. Even with regression risk, the rebounding trend and recent 20-23 minute workload support a modest over lean.

assistsUNDER 169%MEDIUM

Season assist average is 1.1, but the last 5 and last 10 are both 0.8, and his away mean is just 0.74. With limited playmaking volume, the under is the cleaner side.

blocksOVER 1.562%MEDIUM

He averages 1.6 blocks per game this season and 2.1 over the last 10, with 2.0 in the last 5. That level of rim protection gives him a strong chance to clear a 1.5 block line.

stocksUNDER 2.558%MEDIUM

Season stocks are 2.19, but that still sits below a 2.5 line and the variance is meaningful with a 1.47 standard deviation. Recent form is better at 2.9, but this is still a volatile combo category.

turnoversUNDER 161%MEDIUM

He averages 1.2 turnovers on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, with recent game logs frequently at 0-2. A 1.0 line sits close to his actual profile, but the lower-usage role keeps the under viable.

praUNDER 15.557%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 14.8 and last 10 usage trends do not show enough offensive growth to justify much more. Combo props carry added variance, so the slight under lean is appropriate.

timelineUNDER 6.5 PTS