AI Model:

Rudy Gobert▲

MIN · C

PPG

10.9

RPG

11.4

APG

1.7

L5 PPG

11.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.9

10.9

11.8

RPG-1.0

11.4

10.4

APG+0.1

1.7

1.8

SPG-0.2

0.8

0.6

BPG-0.2

1.6

1.4

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

DEN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs DEN: 7 pts

MEM

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs MEM: 5 pts

TOR

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs TOR: 18 pts

ORL

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs ORL: 12 pts

LAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs LAL: 3 pts

LAC

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs LAC: 9 pts

GSW

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs GSW: 18 pts

OKC

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs OKC: 2 pts

PHX

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHX: 9 pts

UTA

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs UTA: 21 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

REB

UNDER 12.5FANDUEL

58%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

BLK

OVER 1.5FANDUEL

56%

STL+BLK

UNDER 2.5

60%

P+R

UNDER 24.5FANDUEL

57%

R+A

UNDER 14.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.4

7.8

RPG

11.7

11.8

APG

1.4

2.1

vs POR (H2H)22 games

PPG

15.8

RPG

13.8

APG

1.5

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Donovan Clingan	4	35	50%	-24.9%	medium
Brook Lopez	4	22	54%	-30.1%	medium
Deandre Ayton	3	21	79%	+10.0%	medium
Jusuf Nurkić	3	21	38%

Gobert’s rebounding edge is real, but scoring sits in a tight range

Rudy Gobert is producing a strong season line of 10.9 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks while playing 31.4 minutes per game. His recent form is steady rather than explosive, with the last 10 at 10.4 PPG and 11.1 RPG, and his home scoring bump matters here since he averages 14.4 PPG at home versus 7.8 away. The matchup data points to a productive rebounding environment, as he has averaged 15.77 points and 13.77 rebounds in 22 games vs this opponent, but the current market is already pricing him near those ranges. With OVER results generally less reliable in this model, the cleaner angle is on his rebound line staying around his season baseline.

Stat Trends

PPG

11.8(↑ from 10.9)

RPG

10.4(↓ from 11.4)

APG

1.8(→ from 1.7)

Stocks

2.0(↓ from 2.4)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data to project from. The opponent defense profile shows a 117.38 defensive rating and 100 pace, while Gobert’s history vs this team has been strong at 15.77 points and 13.77 rebounds across 22 games.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Rudy Gobert▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	70%	18	✗
Rudy Gobert▼	Rebounds	12.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	15	✗
Rudy Gobert▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	1	✗
Rudy Gobert▼	Blocks	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	1	✗
Rudy Gobert▼	STL+BLK	2.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	—	50%	3	✗
Rudy Gobert▼	P+R	24.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	33	✗
Rudy Gobert▼	R+A	14.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	16	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS11.5UNDER12%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)9/2045%+5.7% edgeNo material changes▼

PRA24.5UNDER16%logisticDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%No material changes▼

REB11.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)13/2065%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Line moved +1.0; Value edge shifted -0.388▼

P+R22.5OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%▼

BLK1.5UNDER37%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 3x8/2040%Line nudged +0.5▼

R+A14UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)8/2040%▼

P+A12OVER0%logisticWeak Leg (9/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Rudy Gobert

Points UNDER 12.5HIGH

This is the cleanest number relative to the data: his season mean is 10.94 points, last 10 is 10.4, and the value data also shows a 10.8 adjusted mean with strong UNDER edge. Even with his home split and favorable history vs this opponent, the market is asking for more scoring than he typically provides.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Donovan Clingan	4	35	17	44%	50%
Robert Williams III	2	5	6	60%	60%
Deni Avdija	3	3	10	50%	50%
Jrue Holiday	4	3	4	33%	33%
Jerami Grant	4	2	9	43%	43%

pointsUNDER 12.572%HIGH

His season mean is 10.94 points and the adjusted mean in value data is 10.8, both below 12.5. Even with a 14.4 PPG home split, the market line is still above his typical scoring level.

reboundsUNDER 12.558%MEDIUM

He averages 11.38 rebounds on the season and 11.1 over the last 10, so 12.5 is a slightly elevated number. The opponent history is strong at 13.77 RPG, but the season baseline keeps this from being a high-confidence OVER.

assistsOVER 1.554%MEDIUM

Gobert’s season average is 1.74 assists and his last 10 is 2.1, both above 1.5. This is a low-volume prop, but the number is modest enough to lean OVER.

blocksOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.6 blocks on the season and 1.2 over the last 10, making 1.5 a fair but playable threshold. The recent dip keeps confidence moderate rather than strong.

stocksUNDER 2.560%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 2.35, while the last 5 is 2.0, so a projected 2.5 line sits above his normal output. Variance is meaningful here, which limits confidence.

prUNDER 24.557%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-rebounds profile is 22.32 using the provided season means, below 24.5. The opponent history is better, but combo props are higher variance and should be treated conservatively.

raUNDER 14.555%MEDIUM

His season rebounds plus assists mean is 13.12, and his recent output is about 13.2 using the last 10 averages. The line is just above his typical level, so the UNDER is slightly preferable.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS

Defensive Matchup Profile

Gobert’s rebounding edge is real, but scoring sits in a tight range

Stat Trends

Key Matchup

Prop Analysis

ML Scout Analysis

Featured Pick

UNDER 12.5 PTS