Ingram’s scoring floor looks solid, but the assist market is the sharpest angle

His season mean is 21.9 and last 10 is also 21.9, but the available value data favors the under at this exact line. With points volatility high (season std 7.28) and the opponent showing a 116.77 defensive rating plus 0.322 scoring suppression, the under is the better side.

He averages 5.6 rebounds on the season and 5.2 over the last 10, which is close to the line but not enough to justify an over. The under is supported by the recent dip to 4.6 over the last 5 and a relatively modest rebound profile.

Ingram’s season assist average is 3.8 and his last 10 is 3.6, so this is a narrow but positive over target. The value data also supports the over, and his 6.923 assists per game in 13 head-to-head meetings vs this opponent stands out.

He averages 1.82 threes per game on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, which clears 1.5. The edge is modest because his threes std is 1.6, so this is playable but not a high-confidence spot.

His season block average is 0.7, so a 0.5 line is reachable. The recent 0.2 over the last 5 lowers confidence, but the season baseline still leans over.

His season stocks average is exactly 1.5, but recent form has dipped to 1.2 over the last 5 and 1.2 over the last 10. With combined defensive events carrying variance and no specific defender matchup data, the under is the safer lean.

His season-level components project to a total that sits below this number more often than not, especially with 21.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.8 assists. Combo props have added variance, so the under is preferable at a line in the low 30s.

Points plus assists based on season means is 25.66, essentially right on the line, but the under gets the nod because the last 5 assists have cooled to 3.0. This is a thin margin, so confidence stays moderate.