Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Clowney | 3 | 19 | 54% | -0.9% | medium |
| Gary Trent Jr. | 4 | 17 | 45% | -17.1% | medium |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 4 | 16 | 44% | -9.6% | medium |
| Tobias Harris | 3 | 16 | 83% |
Brandon Ingram is in steady form with season averages of 21.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, and his last 10 games are right in line at 21.9/5.2/3.6. His recent scoring has ticked up to 23.8 PPG over the last 5, but that comes with elevated variance given the 7.28 season standard deviation on points and 8.94 recent standard deviation. The matchup data doesn’t point to a single defender edge, and the opponent profile shows a 116.77 defensive rating with a 0.322 scoring suppression mark, so this is a spot to be selective rather than chase overs. His strongest prop profile is still points and assists, but the season baseline supports a more conservative lean on the highest lines.
No specific defender matchup data is available, so the main read comes from the team context rather than an individual coverage edge. The opponent’s 116.77 defensive rating and 0.322 scoring suppression suggest a slightly tougher scoring environment, but his historical 23.46153846153846 points, 5.6923076923076925 rebounds, and 6.923076923076923 assists across 13 games vs this opponent show he can still produce.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brandon Ingram▼ | Points | 21.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 50% | 19 | ✓ |
Brandon Ingram▼ | Rebounds | 5.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 5 | ✓ |
Brandon Ingram▼ | Assists | 3.5 | OVER | 64%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 60% | 2 | ✗ |
Brandon Ingram▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 1 | ✗ |
Brandon Ingram▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | OVER | 53%MEDIUM | — | 30% | 0 | ✗ |
Brandon Ingram▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 0 | ✓ |
Brandon Ingram▼ | PRA | 31.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 26 | ✓ |
Brandon Ingram▼ | P+A | 25.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 50% | 21 | ✓ |
This is the cleanest positive-value angle because his season average is 3.8, his last 10 is 3.6, and his head-to-head assist production vs this opponent is 6.923076923076923 across 13 games. The line is accessible, and the value data supports the over at 3.5 even though the confidence isn’t elite due to normal assist variance.
| medium |
| Mikal Bridges | 4 | 16 | 50% | -1.6% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Jones | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Cameron Johnson | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Christian Braun | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Bruce Brown | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Peyton Watson | 1 | 3 | 2 | 25% | 25% |
His season mean is 21.9 and last 10 is also 21.9, but the available value data favors the under at this exact line. With points volatility high (season std 7.28) and the opponent showing a 116.77 defensive rating plus 0.322 scoring suppression, the under is the better side.
He averages 5.6 rebounds on the season and 5.2 over the last 10, which is close to the line but not enough to justify an over. The under is supported by the recent dip to 4.6 over the last 5 and a relatively modest rebound profile.
Ingram’s season assist average is 3.8 and his last 10 is 3.6, so this is a narrow but positive over target. The value data also supports the over, and his 6.923 assists per game in 13 head-to-head meetings vs this opponent stands out.
He averages 1.82 threes per game on the season and 1.7 over the last 10, which clears 1.5. The edge is modest because his threes std is 1.6, so this is playable but not a high-confidence spot.
His season block average is 0.7, so a 0.5 line is reachable. The recent 0.2 over the last 5 lowers confidence, but the season baseline still leans over.
His season stocks average is exactly 1.5, but recent form has dipped to 1.2 over the last 5 and 1.2 over the last 10. With combined defensive events carrying variance and no specific defender matchup data, the under is the safer lean.
His season-level components project to a total that sits below this number more often than not, especially with 21.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.8 assists. Combo props have added variance, so the under is preferable at a line in the low 30s.
Points plus assists based on season means is 25.66, essentially right on the line, but the under gets the nod because the last 5 assists have cooled to 3.0. This is a thin margin, so confidence stays moderate.