AI Model:

Cameron Johnson▲

DEN · PF

PPG

11.8

RPG

3.8

APG

2.3

L5 PPG

17.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+5.8

11.8

17.6

RPG0.0

3.8

APG+0.1

2.3

2.4

SPG+0.2

0.6

0.8

BPG+0.2

0.4

0.6

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

BOS

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs BOS: 11 pts

OKC

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs OKC: 7 pts

MIN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MIN: 0 pts

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 10 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 6 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 17 pts

SAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs SAS: 15 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 18 pts

MEM

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MEM: 20 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5FANDUEL

64%

REB

OVER 3.5FANDUEL

71%

AST

UNDER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

67%

3PM

OVER 1.5BETMGM

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

62%

PRA

UNDER 17.5FANDUEL

60%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

11.6

13.0

RPG

4.1

4.3

APG

2.8

2.2

vs TOR (H2H)8 games

PPG

15.1

RPG

4.5

APG

2.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Jabari Smith Jr.	4	27	53%	-8.6%	medium
Russell Westbrook	4	13	63%	+2.5%	medium
Naji Marshall	3	12	50%	-4.6%	medium
Julian Champagnie	3	10	83%

Cameron Johnson’s scoring is steady, but the rebound market looks strongest

Johnson’s season line sits at 11.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.3 assists across 44 games, while his last 10 and last 20 scoring averages are both right around 12.2-12.3. His last 5 has spiked to 17.6 points, but that is well above his season mean, so regression risk is real if the usage normalizes. He has been efficient from deep all year at 43.1% on threes, and his recent game log still shows consistent minutes around 30 per game. The safest angle is to lean into his rebounding value and avoid paying for an inflated scoring hot streak.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.6(↑ from 11.8)

RPG

3.8(→ from 3.8)

APG

2.4(→ from 2.3)

3PM

2.2(↑ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

Toronto’s opponent defense data shows a 111.84 defensive rating with scoring suppression of -0.804 and three suppression of -0.849, which is a modestly tougher environment for offense. No specific defender matchup data is available beyond the listed player pool, so there is no individual matchup edge to lean on.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Cameron Johnson▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	6	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	71%HIGH	1/2	60%	5	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	2	✓
Cameron Johnson▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	0	✗
Cameron Johnson▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✗
Cameron Johnson▼	PRA	17.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	13	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R17UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)OVER 3x9/2045%▼

R+A7UNDER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x7/2035%▼

P+A15.5OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)OVER 3x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Cameron Johnson

Rebounds OVER 3.5HIGH

This is the cleanest numbers-based angle: his season rebound average is 3.8, his last 10 is 4.2, and his home/away splits stay in a tight range around 3.5-4.3. The value_props section also flags strong positive edge on the over at 3.5, making this the best blend of projection and price.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
RJ Barrett	1	4	2	0%	0%
Ja'Kobe Walter	1	2	0	0%	0%
Brandon Ingram	1	2	0	0%	0%
Jakob Poeltl	1	1	4	100%	100%
Immanuel Quickley	1	1	6	40%	60%

pointsUNDER 11.564%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.8 and his last 10 is 12.2, so the market is close to fair despite the last 5 jumping to 17.6. With over picks hitting only 42.8% in the model and the recent spike above season baseline, the under is the more conservative side.

reboundsOVER 3.571%HIGH

He averages 3.8 rebounds on the season and 4.2 over the last 10, so 3.5 is slightly below his baseline. The value_props data also shows a 12.7% edge on one market and 11.7%+ on several others, which supports the over.

assistsUNDER 2.567%MEDIUM

His season average is 2.3 assists and his last 10 is 2.5, but the line is sitting at 2.5 with under juice across several books. That makes the under the cleaner side unless his playmaking role expands.

threesOVER 1.558%MEDIUM

Johnson averages 1.93 made threes on the season and 2.2 over the last 10, so 1.5 is below his typical output. The edge is not huge, but his volume and 43.1% season three-point shooting support clearing this number.

stocksUNDER 1.562%MEDIUM

He averages 1.0 stocks on the season and 1.1 over the last 10, which is below the 1.5 threshold. With only 0.6 steals and 0.4 blocks per game, the combined defensive counting stats are still too modest for an over.

praUNDER 17.560%MEDIUM

His season PRA is 17.9 based on 11.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.3 assists, which is nearly identical to the line. Because combo props add variance and the model notes lower hit rates on PRA-type markets, the under is the safer lean.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS