Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 4 | 20 | 50% | -1.5% | medium |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 2 | 19 | 57% | +1.8% | low |
| Luka Dončić | 2 | 18 | 57% | -1.5% | low |
| Brandin Podziemski | 4 | 15 | 50% |
Christian Braun’s form is trending up, with 18.0 PPG over his last 5 and 14.2 PPG over his last 10 versus an 11.6 season average. He’s also logging strong minutes, at 33.0 over the last 5 and 34.4 over the last 10, which supports his floor. The matchup data points to a tougher scoring environment: Toronto’s opponent profile shows a 111.84 defensive rating, 100 pace, and negative scoring suppression, while Braun has averaged just 9.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 1.2 APG in 5 games vs this opponent. His recent efficiency spike makes overs tempting, but the season baseline and head-to-head history still lean conservative.
Braun has no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data to project from. The broader opponent profile is favorable for a slower, lower-scoring environment, with a 111.84 defensive rating and negative scoring suppression.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Christian Braun▼ | Points | 11.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 40% | 11 | ✓ |
Christian Braun▼ | Rebounds | 4.5 | OVER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 4 | ✗ |
Christian Braun▼ | Assists | 2.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 2 | ✗ |
Christian Braun▼ | 3PM | 1.5 | UNDER | 72%HIGH | 1/2 | 50% | 1 | ✓ |
Christian Braun▼ | STL+BLK | 1.5 | UNDER | 57%MEDIUM | — | 80% | 0 | ✓ |
Christian Braun▼ | Turnovers | 1 | UNDER | 66%MEDIUM | — | 100% | 1 | ✗ |
This is the cleanest combination of season profile and market support. Braun averages 0.94 threes on the season, and the value props data shows the under as the best side at multiple books, with the line sitting above his baseline despite the recent hot stretch.
| medium |
| Jalen Brunson | 2 | 14 | 39% | -18.2% | low |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Ingram | 1 | 7 | 5 | 100% | 100% |
| Immanuel Quickley | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| RJ Barrett | 1 | 2 | 4 | 50% | 50% |
| Jakob Poeltl | 1 | 1 | 5 | 67% | 67% |
| Scottie Barnes | 1 | 1 | 4 | 100% | 100% |
His season mean is 11.6, but the more conservative inputs matter here: he has only 9.2 PPG in 5 games vs this opponent and the matchup data shows scoring suppression. The recent 18.0 PPG run is strong, but it sits well above his season baseline and is vulnerable to regression.
Braun is at 4.9 RPG on the season and 5.6 over his last 10, with 5.2 over the last 5. He also posted 5+ rebounds in several recent games, so 4.5 is a reachable number if his minutes stay in the low-30s.
He averages 3.0 assists for the season and 3.2 over the last 5 and last 10. The line sits below his season mean, though the standard deviation of 1.76 keeps this from being a high-confidence play.
Braun averages only 0.94 made threes on the season and has just 1.3 over the last 10, despite a recent spike to 1.8 over the last 5. The value data also points to the under, and his 1.5 line is above the season norm.
He averages 1.06 stocks on the season and 1.1 recently, which is below a 1.5 threshold. The volatility is high enough that this is not a strong over spot.
Braun’s recent turnover rates are low at 0.6 over the last 5 and 0.7 over the last 10, with 1.1 over the last 20. That profile supports staying under a 1.0 line more often than not.