AI Model:

Christian Braun▲

DEN · SG

PPG

11.6

RPG

4.9

APG

3.0

L5 PPG

18.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+6.4

11.6

18.0

RPG+0.3

4.9

5.2

APG+0.2

3.0

3.2

SPG+0.8

0.8

1.6

BPG-0.3

0.3

0.0

UNDER 11.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

11.5

MIN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MIN: 15 pts

UTA

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs UTA: 11 pts

LAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs LAL: 15 pts

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 7 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 4 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 19 pts

SAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs SAS: 11 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 12 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 22 pts

MEM

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MEM: 26 pts

Over 11.5

Under 11.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 11.5DRAFTKINGS

60%

REB

OVER 4.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

AST

OVER 2.5DRAFTKINGS

55%

3PM

UNDER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

72%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

57%

UNDER 1

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.8

12.1

RPG

5.4

5.5

APG

3.2

3.3

vs TOR (H2H)5 games

PPG

9.2

RPG

3.2

APG

1.2

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Deni Avdija	4	20	50%	-1.5%	medium
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	2	19	57%	+1.8%	low
Luka Dončić	2	18	57%	-1.5%	low
Brandin Podziemski	4	15	50%

Braun’s recent surge is real, but the 11.5 line still looks playable to the under

Christian Braun’s form is trending up, with 18.0 PPG over his last 5 and 14.2 PPG over his last 10 versus an 11.6 season average. He’s also logging strong minutes, at 33.0 over the last 5 and 34.4 over the last 10, which supports his floor. The matchup data points to a tougher scoring environment: Toronto’s opponent profile shows a 111.84 defensive rating, 100 pace, and negative scoring suppression, while Braun has averaged just 9.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 1.2 APG in 5 games vs this opponent. His recent efficiency spike makes overs tempting, but the season baseline and head-to-head history still lean conservative.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.0(↑ from 11.6)

RPG

5.2(↑ from 4.9)

APG

3.2(→ from 3.0)

3PM

1.8(↑ from 0.9)

Key Matchup

Braun has no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed key defenders, so there is no specific defender matchup data to project from. The broader opponent profile is favorable for a slower, lower-scoring environment, with a 111.84 defensive rating and negative scoring suppression.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Christian Braun▼	Points	11.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	11	✓
Christian Braun▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	4	✗
Christian Braun▼	Assists	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	2	✗
Christian Braun▼	3PM	1.5	UNDER	72%HIGH	1/2	50%	1	✓
Christian Braun▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Christian Braun▼	Turnovers	1	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	100%	1	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R19.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%▼

P+A16.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)8/2040%▼

R+A8UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

Christian Braun

Threes UNDER 1.5HIGH

This is the cleanest combination of season profile and market support. Braun averages 0.94 threes on the season, and the value props data shows the under as the best side at multiple books, with the line sitting above his baseline despite the recent hot stretch.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Brandon Ingram	1	7	5	100%	100%
Immanuel Quickley	1	2	0	0%	0%
RJ Barrett	1	2	4	50%	50%
Jakob Poeltl	1	1	5	67%	67%
Scottie Barnes	1	1	4	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 11.560%MEDIUM

His season mean is 11.6, but the more conservative inputs matter here: he has only 9.2 PPG in 5 games vs this opponent and the matchup data shows scoring suppression. The recent 18.0 PPG run is strong, but it sits well above his season baseline and is vulnerable to regression.

reboundsOVER 4.558%MEDIUM

Braun is at 4.9 RPG on the season and 5.6 over his last 10, with 5.2 over the last 5. He also posted 5+ rebounds in several recent games, so 4.5 is a reachable number if his minutes stay in the low-30s.

assistsOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

He averages 3.0 assists for the season and 3.2 over the last 5 and last 10. The line sits below his season mean, though the standard deviation of 1.76 keeps this from being a high-confidence play.

threesUNDER 1.572%HIGH

Braun averages only 0.94 made threes on the season and has just 1.3 over the last 10, despite a recent spike to 1.8 over the last 5. The value data also points to the under, and his 1.5 line is above the season norm.

stocksUNDER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.06 stocks on the season and 1.1 recently, which is below a 1.5 threshold. The volatility is high enough that this is not a strong over spot.

turnoversUNDER 166%MEDIUM

Braun’s recent turnover rates are low at 0.6 over the last 5 and 0.7 over the last 10, with 1.1 over the last 20. That profile supports staying under a 1.0 line more often than not.

timelineUNDER 11.5 PTS