AI Model:

Jakob Poeltl▲

TOR · C

PPG

10.3

RPG

7.7

APG

2.1

L5 PPG

13.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.3

10.3

13.6

RPG+1.7

7.7

9.4

APG+0.3

2.1

2.4

SPG-0.4

0.8

0.4

BPG+0.7

0.7

1.4

UNDER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

MIL

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs MIL: 6 pts

SAS

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs SAS: 15 pts

WAS

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs WAS: 18 pts

NYK

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NYK: 9 pts

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 9 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 16 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 8 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 6 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 21 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 17 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 12.5FANDUEL

78%

REB

UNDER 8.5FANDUEL

61%

AST

UNDER 2.5BETONLINEAG

66%

BLK

OVER 0.5BETMGM

64%

STL+BLK

OVER 1.5

60%

P+R

UNDER 20.5FANDUEL

58%

R+A

OVER 10.5BETMGM

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.9

8.7

RPG

8.2

6.6

APG

2.1

2.6

vs DEN (H2H)14 games

PPG

11.2

RPG

8.4

APG

3.9

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Ryan Kalkbrenner	3	21	57%	-12.7%	medium
Jalen Duren	2	13	75%	+5.2%	low
Kristaps Porziņģis	2	10	41%	-38.5%	low
Andre Drummond	1	10	25%

Poeltl’s recent rebound and stocks surge keeps him live, but points remain capped

Jakob Poeltl is trending up over the last 5 games with 13.6 PPG, 9.4 RPG, and 1.8 stocks, but his season baseline is still more modest at 10.3 points and 7.7 rebounds. The matchup is not ideal for a big scoring spike: Denver’s defense has a 116.77 defensive rating and a 0.322 scoring suppression mark, which supports a more conservative projection. His season shooting has been elite at 69.7% FG, yet his scoring volume is still limited enough that the lower point lines look more attractive than overs. Recent minutes have also been solid at 27.6 MPG, but with an expected road environment and no back-to-back boost, the safer angle is on his lower-scoring outcomes.

Stat Trends

PPG

13.6(↑ from 10.3)

RPG

9.4(↑ from 7.7)

APG

2.4(↑ from 2.1)

Stocks

1.8(↑ from 1.5)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data beyond the provided list, so there is no specific defender matchup data to lean on. The team defense context is still useful: Denver’s 116.77 defensive rating and 0.322 scoring suppression suggest a tougher scoring environment than a neutral matchup.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jakob Poeltl▼	Points	12.5	UNDER	78%HIGH	1/2	50%	23	✗
Jakob Poeltl▼	Rebounds	8.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	11	✗
Jakob Poeltl▼	Assists	2.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	2	✓
Jakob Poeltl▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	64%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✗
Jakob Poeltl▼	STL+BLK	1.5	OVER	60%MEDIUM	—	70%	2	✓
Jakob Poeltl▼	P+R	20.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	34	✗
Jakob Poeltl▼	R+A	10.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	13	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5UNDER8%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

REB8.5UNDER43%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 5x5/2025%+17.9% edge▼

P+R19UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

PRA19.5UNDER11%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

P+A14UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x8/2040%▼

AST2UNDER4%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (9/20)7/2035%▼

FTM0.5UNDER21%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

FTA1.5UNDER8%gbtWeak Leg (9/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%▼

R+A9OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Jakob Poeltl

Points UNDER 12.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge in the data, with the value model showing a 14.3% edge and 25.77 EV per 100 on the under at FanDuel. Poeltl’s season scoring average is 10.3, which is well below 12.5, and the recent hot stretch is not enough to fully erase that baseline.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Aaron Gordon	1	6	11	80%	90%
Nikola Jokić	1	4	5	50%	63%
Jamal Murray	1	1	4	50%	50%
Christian Braun	1	1	4	50%	50%
Spencer Jones	1	1	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 12.578%HIGH

His season mean is 10.3 points and the value model shows a 14.3% edge on the under at this line. The recent 13.6 PPG is above season average, but not so far above that it overrides the season baseline and Denver’s scoring suppression.

reboundsUNDER 8.561%MEDIUM

Season rebounds sit at 7.7 and the value data does not show a positive edge on the over at 8.5. His last 5 at 9.4 is better, but the season number still points closer to the under than a clear over.

assistsUNDER 2.566%MEDIUM

He averages 2.1 assists for the season and 2.3 over the last 10, which leaves limited cushion above 2.5. With no positive value data provided for the over, the under is the more conservative side.

blocksOVER 0.564%MEDIUM

He averages 0.7 blocks per game on the season and 1.4 over the last 5, so 0.5 is a low bar. The recent shot-blocking spike supports a small lean over despite normal variance.

stocksOVER 1.560%MEDIUM

His season average is 1.52 stocks and his last 10 jumps to 2.3, so 1.5 is right in his current range. This is still a volatile category, but the recent form makes the over viable.

prUNDER 20.558%MEDIUM

He averages 10.3 points and 7.7 rebounds for a season PR of 18.0, below the 20.5 line. The recent bump is real, but combo props carry extra variance and the season baseline still favors the under.

raOVER 10.557%MEDIUM

His season combined rebounds plus assists is 9.8, while the last 5 are stronger at 11.8. This is a thin edge, but the recent workload makes the over playable at a low confidence level.

timelineUNDER 12.5 PTS