Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kon Knueppel | 4 | 11 | 25% | -19.3% | medium |
| Desmond Bane | 3 | 11 | 36% | -15.7% | medium |
| Jalen Brunson | 4 | 10 | 53% | +2.4% | medium |
| Derrick White | 3 | 9 | 50% |
Ja'Kobe Walter is averaging 6.6 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 1.1 assists this season across 18.8 minutes, with his last 10 games sitting close to that baseline at 6.3 points and 19.4 minutes. His last 5 is a bit hotter at 7.8 points and 1.6 stocks, but that is not enough to override the larger sample, especially with a road matchup where his season scoring has been slightly better away than at home, yet still only 8.5 points per game away. The Nuggets have a 116.77 defensive rating, 100 pace, and a 0.322 scoring suppression mark, while Walter’s prior two games vs this opponent were just 2.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 0.5 assists in 16 minutes. With no big-minute role and limited head-to-head production, the profile leans under on most counting props.
There is no specific defender matchup data to target here. The broader opponent profile is unfavorable: Denver owns a 116.77 defensive rating, a 100 pace, and a 0.322 scoring suppression mark, which should limit Walter’s already modest usage.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ja'Kobe Walter▼ | Points | 6.5 | UNDER | 67%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 70% | 14 | ✗ |
Ja'Kobe Walter▼ | Rebounds | 2.5 | UNDER | 62%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 2 | ✓ |
Ja'Kobe Walter▼ | Assists | 1 | OVER | 54%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 30% | 2 | ✓ |
Ja'Kobe Walter▼ | 3PM | 1 | OVER | 52%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 40% | 4 | ✓ |
Ja'Kobe Walter▼ | Steals | 1 | UNDER | 56%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 1 | ✗ |
Ja'Kobe Walter▼ | Blocks | 0.5 | UNDER | 73%HIGH | — | 80% | 1 | ✗ |
Ja'Kobe Walter▼ | STL+BLK | 1 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | — | 40% | 2 | ✓ |
Ja'Kobe Walter▼ | Turnovers | 0.5 | UNDER | 84%HIGH | — | 90% | 0 | ✓ |
Ja'Kobe Walter▼ | P+A | 7.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 16 | ✗ |
Ja'Kobe Walter▼ | P+R | 9 | UNDER | 64%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 16 | ✗ |
Walter’s season average is 0.2 blocks and his last 10 is also 0.2, so a 0.5 line is well above his normal output. This is the most stable under on the board because his shot-blocking volume is minimal and unlikely to spike.
| medium |
| Andrew Nembhard | 3 | 8 | 0% | -44.3% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 2 | 5 | 9 | 43% | 50% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20% | 30% |
| Bruce Brown | 2 | 3 | 4 | 50% | 50% |
| Cameron Johnson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 100% | 100% |
| Jalen Pickett | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 6.6 and last 10 is 6.3, so a 6.5 line sits right on his true baseline. The last 5 spike to 7.8 is not enough to justify an over with this role and matchup.
Walter averages 2.4 rebounds for the season and 2.5 over the last 10, making 2.5 a fair but slightly inflated number. His rebounding volume is modest enough that the under is the safer side.
His season mean is 1.05 assists and last 10 is 1.2, so a 1.0 line is slightly below his baseline. The volume is still low, so confidence stays modest.
He averages 1.21 made threes on the season and 1.0 over the last 10, with 1.19 at home and 1.23 away. That supports a narrow over, but the variance keeps confidence limited.
He averages exactly 1.0 steals per game, but steals are volatile and his recent game logs show several single-steal or zero-steal outings. That makes the under slightly preferable at a 1.0 line.
Walter’s season average is only 0.2 blocks and his recent rate is also 0.2, well below a 0.5 line. This is the cleanest under among his defensive props.
He averages 1.16 stocks on the season and 1.4 over the last 10, with 1.6 in the last 5. The floor is still shaky, but the number is modest enough to lean over.
His season turnover average is only 0.5 and the last 10 is 0.1, with multiple recent games at zero turnovers. This is a strong under given his low-usage role.
Points plus assists projects near 7.7 using season averages, and the last 10 is 7.5. Because combo props add volatility and his scoring role is modest, the under is the safer side.
His season points + rebounds baseline is 9.0 exactly, but the head-to-head sample vs this opponent is only 5.0 combined across 2 games on average using his listed stats. With limited volume, the under is slightly favored.