AI Model:

Jamal Murray▼

DEN · PG

PPG

25.1

RPG

4.4

APG

7.2

L5 PPG

21.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-4.1

25.1

21.0

RPG+0.4

4.4

4.8

APG-0.6

7.2

6.6

SPG-0.1

0.9

0.8

BPG-0.3

0.3

0.0

UNDER 23.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

23.5

MIN

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs MIN: 25 pts

UTA

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs UTA: 45 pts

LAL

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs LAL: 28 pts

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 12 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 21 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 30 pts

SAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs SAS: 39 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 5 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 12 pts

MEM

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MEM: 19 pts

Over 23.5

Under 23.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 23.5FANDUEL

62%

REB

OVER 3.5DRAFTKINGS

68%

AST

OVER 6.5FANDUEL

58%

3PM

OVER 2.5FANDUEL

57%

STL

OVER 0.5

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5

74%

UNDER 2.5

56%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

61%

P+R

OVER 27.5STAKE

55%

P+A

OVER 30.5FANDUEL

57%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

18.6

27.8

RPG

4.0

4.9

APG

5.1

7.2

vs TOR (H2H)7 games

PPG

20.3

RPG

4.4

APG

7.4

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Amen Thompson	4	15	56%	+7.3%	medium
Josh Okogie	4	13	75%	+18.4%	medium
Jaden McDaniels	4	13	71%	+16.0%	medium
Dennis Schröder	4	11	40%

Murray’s volume is strong, but the home split and recent dip point to a tighter scoring night

Jamal Murray’s season line remains elite at 25.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG, and 7.2 APG across 64 games, but his recent form has cooled to 21.0 PPG and 6.6 APG over the last 5. He is much better away than at home, with home marks of 18.6 PPG and 5.1 APG versus 27.8 PPG and 7.2 APG on the road, and tonight is in Denver. Toronto’s defense data shows a 111.84 defensive rating and negative suppression numbers for scoring and threes, which adds some resistance, while his head-to-head average of 20.3 PPG versus this opponent is below his season norm.

Stat Trends

PPG

21.0(↓ from 25.1)

APG

6.6(↓ from 7.2)

RPG

4.8(→ from 4.4)

Key Matchup

Toronto’s opponent defense data shows a 111.84 defensive rating with scoring suppression at -0.804 and three suppression at -0.849. Murray’s head-to-head scoring versus this opponent is 20.3 PPG across 7 games, which is below his season average and supports caution on high-point outcomes.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Jamal Murray▼	Points	23.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	31	✗
Jamal Murray▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	68%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	5	✓
Jamal Murray▼	Assists	6.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	6	✗
Jamal Murray▼	3PM	2.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	30%	2	✗
Jamal Murray▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	40%	1	✓
Jamal Murray▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Jamal Murray▼	Turnovers	2.5	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Jamal Murray▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	80%	1	✓
Jamal Murray▼	P+R	27.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	60%	36	✓
Jamal Murray▼	P+A	30.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	37	✓

ML Scout Analysis

P+R30.5UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

P+A33UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

R+A11UNDER0%logisticWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

Jamal Murray

Blocks UNDER 0.5HIGH

Murray’s season blocks average is 0.3 and his last-5 is 0.0, so the production gap versus 0.5 is significant. This is a much cleaner angle than his higher-variance scoring or combo props.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Immanuel Quickley	2	7	4	40%	40%
Jamal Shead	2	5	4	67%	67%
RJ Barrett	2	5	9	67%	67%
Ja'Kobe Walter	2	4	3	50%	75%
Scottie Barnes	2	4	4	25%	25%

pointsUNDER 23.562%MEDIUM

His season mean is 25.08, but the recent mean is 23.6 and his home scoring is only 18.6 PPG. With a down trend and a tougher scoring profile at home, the under is the cleaner side.

reboundsOVER 3.568%MEDIUM

He averages 4.42 rebounds on the season and 4.4 over the last 20, which sits above 3.5. The standard deviation is 2.34, so the number has some swing, but the average still supports the over.

assistsOVER 6.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 7.17 assists and his away split rises to 7.83, which helps the over case. That said, the last-5 has dipped to 6.6 and the standard deviation is 3.38, so confidence stays moderate.

threesOVER 2.557%MEDIUM

He averages 3.08 made threes on the season and 2.5 over the last 10, clearing this line in most sample baselines. The recent dip keeps this from being a high-confidence play.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

He averages 0.9 steals per game and 1.0 in away games, so a single steal is within range. Recent production is only 0.8 over the last 5, which makes it playable but not strong.

blocksUNDER 0.574%HIGH

His season average is just 0.3 blocks per game and his last-5 is 0.0. This is well below the 0.5 threshold, making the under the clear side.

turnoversUNDER 2.556%MEDIUM

He has 2.0 turnovers per game over the last 5 and 2.2 over the last 10, so this is not a high-turnover profile right now. Since the line is projected from his season context, the under is slightly preferable.

stocksUNDER 1.561%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.25 and recent is 0.8, both below 1.5. The baseline volume does not support an over here.

prOVER 27.555%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 29.52, but recent form and home scoring pull that down. This is close enough to the line to keep the confidence modest.

paOVER 30.557%MEDIUM

He averages 32.25 points plus assists on the season and 30.2 over the last 10, so the line is right near his baseline. Because the recent trend is down, this is not a premium over.

timelineUNDER 23.5 PTS