AI Model:

RJ Barrett▲

TOR · SG

PPG

19.0

RPG

5.4

APG

3.3

L5 PPG

22.6

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+3.6

19.0

22.6

RPG+0.4

5.4

5.8

APG-1.1

3.3

2.2

SPG0.0

0.8

BPG+0.3

0.3

0.6

OVER 14.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

14.5

SAS

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs SAS: 12 pts

WAS

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs WAS: 21 pts

NYK

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NYK: 20 pts

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 25 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 31 pts

HOU

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs HOU: 25 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 16 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 22 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 27 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 23 pts

Over 14.5

Under 14.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 14.5STAKE

61%

REB

OVER 4.5STAKE

58%

AST

UNDER 3.5STAKE

63%

3PM

OVER 1.5

57%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

54%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

62%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

55%

UNDER 2

56%

P+R

OVER 18.5STAKE

58%

P+A

OVER 17.5STAKE

52%

UNDER 0.5

66%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

19.7

17.8

RPG

6.2

5.4

APG

3.4

2.2

vs DEN (H2H)10 games

PPG

16.5

RPG

4.9

APG

3.7

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Dyson Daniels	4	18	53%	+4.1%	medium
Amen Thompson	2	11	50%	+0.8%	low
Michael Porter Jr.	2	10	31%	-24.2%	low
P.J. Washington	2	10	70%

RJ Barrett brings solid scoring form, but this matchup leans more cautious than explosive

Barrett's recent scoring has been stronger than his season baseline, with 22.6 PPG over his last 5 and 22.2 over his last 10 versus a 19.0 season average. He also has a stable workload at 30.2 MPG for the season and 32.8 MPG over the last 10, which supports a steady floor. The matchup is not ideal for a big ceiling: his 10-game history vs this opponent is only 16.5 PPG, and the opponent data shows a 116.77 defensive rating with a 0.322 scoring suppression mark. Given the over-bias warning and his season mean sitting below the current scoring run, the cleaner edge is to be selective on overs.

Stat Trends

PPG

22.6(↑ from 19.0)

RPG

5.8(→ from 5.4)

APG

2.2(↓ from 3.3)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available here, so the read comes from the overall opponent context. His 10-game history vs this opponent is 16.5 PPG and 4.9 RPG, which is below his current scoring form, and the opponent profile shows a 116.77 defensive rating with 0.322 scoring suppression.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
RJ Barrett▼	Points	14.5	OVER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	18	✓
RJ Barrett▼	Rebounds	4.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	5	✓
RJ Barrett▼	Assists	3.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	2	✓
RJ Barrett▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	40%	1	✗
RJ Barrett▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✗
RJ Barrett▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	—	60%	1	✗
RJ Barrett▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	90%	1	✓
RJ Barrett▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	56%MEDIUM	—	90%	3	✗
RJ Barrett▼	P+R	18.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	100%	23	✓
RJ Barrett▼	P+A	17.5	OVER	52%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	20	✓
RJ Barrett▼	Double-Double	0.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	—	—	—

ML Scout Analysis

P+R26OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (15/20)10/2050%▼

P+A24OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (14/20)11/2055%▼

PTS21.5UNDER1%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (13/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge changed -0.040; Scorecard changed -3.0▼

REB5.5OVER1%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 3x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted -0.141▼

PRA30.5UNDER20%gbt_praDecent Leg (12/20)9/2045%▼

AST3.5UNDER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 3x7/2035%+8.5% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.230▼

3PM1.5UNDER3%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)8/2040%+16.1% edgePrediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted +0.383▼

R+A8UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (10/20)7/2035%▼

Featured Pick

RJ Barrett

Points OVER 14.5MEDIUM

This is the cleanest number on the board because it sits well below his 19.05 season scoring average and 18.64 away average. Even accounting for the stronger caution on overs, his recent 22.2 PPG form and consistent 30+ minute workload make the over the best-supported angle.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jamal Murray	2	7	9	33%	33%
Peyton Watson	1	5	2	17%	17%
Spencer Jones	2	2	0	0%	0%
Christian Braun	1	2	0	0%	0%
Tim Hardaway Jr.	2	2	6	67%	100%

pointsOVER 14.561%MEDIUM

His season scoring mean is 19.05 and even his away mean is 18.64, both comfortably above 14.5. The recent form is also strong at 22.2 PPG over the last 10, and his last 5 includes 23, 27, 22, 16, and 25 points.

reboundsOVER 4.558%MEDIUM

Barrett averages 5.43 rebounds per game this season and 5.7 over the last 10, both above the line. His home split is 6.2 RPG, which adds support if his minutes stay near the 30+ range.

assistsUNDER 3.563%MEDIUM

His season mean is 3.27 APG, but the last 5 has dropped to 2.2 and the last 10 is just 2.3. With his recent assist trend below the line and no strong upward signal, the under is preferred.

threesOVER 1.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.75 made threes per game this season and 1.8 over the last 10, both above 1.5. His recent volume also supports it at 1.8 FG3M per game over the last 10.

stealsOVER 0.554%MEDIUM

His season average is 0.8 steals per game, which clears the 0.5 line. The recent sample is a bit lighter at 0.6 over the last 10, so this is playable but not strong.

blocksUNDER 0.562%MEDIUM

He averages only 0.3 blocks per game on the season, well below the line. Even with 0.6 blocks over the last 5, the season profile still points to under.

stocksUNDER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.11 and the last 10 is 1.0, both below 1.5. The volume is not high enough to make the over attractive at this number.

turnoversUNDER 256%MEDIUM

He has 1.7 turnovers over the last 10 and 1.8 over the last 5, which stays below 2.0. This makes the under the cleaner side unless usage spikes.

prOVER 18.558%MEDIUM

He averages 19.05 points and 5.43 rebounds for a combined profile that supports this line, and his recent scoring run boosts the case. The variance is moderate, so this is playable but not a high-confidence combo.

paOVER 17.552%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists profile is 22.32, which clears the line comfortably. However, the assist dip to 2.2 over the last 5 keeps confidence modest.

double_doubleUNDER 0.566%MEDIUM

He is productive in points and rebounds, but neither category is consistently near the double-double threshold together. With 19.0 PPG and 5.4 RPG on the season, the under is the safer call.

timelineOVER 14.5 PTS