AI Model:

Sandro Mamukelashvili▲

TOR · C

PPG

10.8

RPG

4.9

APG

1.9

L5 PPG

10.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-0.8

10.8

10.0

RPG+0.3

4.9

5.2

APG+0.3

1.9

2.2

SPG+0.2

0.8

1.0

BPG-0.3

0.5

0.2

OVER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

7.5

SAS

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs SAS: 2 pts

WAS

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs WAS: 7 pts

NYK

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NYK: 4 pts

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 11 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 13 pts

HOU

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs HOU: 8 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 8 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 9 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 8 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 17 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 7.5DRAFTKINGS

58%

REB

OVER 3.5FANDUEL

70%

AST

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

3PM

OVER 0.5DRAFTKINGS

57%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

55%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

61%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

59%

UNDER 2

67%

P+R

OVER 11.5FANDUEL

54%

P+A

OVER 11.5FANDUEL

53%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

10.2

10.1

RPG

4.8

3.6

APG

1.0

2.4

vs DEN (H2H)8 games

PPG

7.3

RPG

4.9

APG

1.1

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Onyeka Okongwu	4	14	45%	-6.8%	medium
Wendell Carter Jr.	3	11	71%	+4.8%	medium
Moussa Diabaté	4	11	33%	-19.0%	medium
Alperen Sengun	2	10	30%

Rebounds stand out as Sandro’s cleanest edge

Sandro Mamukelashvili is producing 10.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and 1.9 APG on the season, with his last 5 holding steady at 10.0 PPG and 5.2 RPG. The recent scoring profile is a bit softer than his season norm, while rebounds have stayed close to baseline, which makes the lower rebound market the most attractive angle. Against Denver, his head-to-head scoring has been modest at 7.25 PPG across 8 games, and the matchup data does not provide a specific defender note. With his minutes recently sitting around 19-21 and no injury limitation, the projection is stable but not explosive.

Stat Trends

PPG

10.0(→ from 10.8)

RPG

5.2(→ from 4.9)

APG

2.2(↑ from 1.9)

Key Matchup

The provided opponent defense data shows a 116.77 defensive rating, pace of 100, and scoring_suppression of 0.322. There is no specific defender matchup data for this player, so the main takeaway is the overall Denver environment rather than an individual matchup.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Sandro Mamukelashvili▼	Points	7.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	4	✗
Sandro Mamukelashvili▼	Rebounds	3.5	OVER	70%HIGH	1/2	70%	2	✗
Sandro Mamukelashvili▼	Assists	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	2	✓
Sandro Mamukelashvili▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	0	✗
Sandro Mamukelashvili▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✗
Sandro Mamukelashvili▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Sandro Mamukelashvili▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
Sandro Mamukelashvili▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	—	100%	0	✓
Sandro Mamukelashvili▼	P+R	11.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	6	✗
Sandro Mamukelashvili▼	P+A	11.5	OVER	53%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	6	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS10.5OVER10%gbt_pointsWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER▼

REB4.5OVER25%gbt_reboundsWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

3PM1.5UNDER11%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)10/2050%Prediction flipped OVER to UNDER; Value edge shifted -0.251; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+R16UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 2x9/2045%▼

AST2UNDER6%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (10/20)5/2025%▼

3PA4UNDER22%gbtWeak Leg (10/20)UNDER 2x6/2030%▼

PRA18UNDER1%gbt_praWeak Leg (10/20)9/2045%▼

P+A13UNDER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (10/20)8/2040%▼

FTM1UNDER11%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

FTA2UNDER5%gbtWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 2x5/2025%▼

R+A6.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (8/20)OVER 4x10/2050%▼

Featured Pick

Sandro Mamukelashvili

Rebounds OVER 3.5HIGH

This is the strongest available value because his season rebound mean is 4.88 and his last 5 are 5.2, both comfortably above the line. The value_props data also flags a 15.5% edge and 28.39 EV per 100, which is much better than the rest of the board.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Jonas Valančiūnas	1	2	4	100%	100%
Spencer Jones	2	2	0	0%	0%
DaRon Holmes II	1	1	0	0%	0%
Jamal Murray	2	1	0	0%	0%
Bruce Brown	2	1	4	100%	100%

pointsOVER 7.558%MEDIUM

His season mean is 10.85 PPG and even with the last 10 at 8.7, this line sits well below his typical output. Recent minutes have been around 19.2, so the scoring floor is still playable.

reboundsOVER 3.570%HIGH

This is the cleanest value spot: season mean 4.88 RPG, last 5 at 5.2, and value_props show a 15.5% edge with 28.39 EV per 100 at Fanatics. Even with variance, the line is beneath his normal rebound production.

assistsOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.88 APG on the season and 2.2 over the last 5, so 1.5 is modest. The away split is stronger at 2.29 APG, which supports the over slightly.

threesOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 1.35 threes per game on the season and 1.2 over the last 5, so clearing 0.5 is common. The recent dip is small enough that one make is still the most likely outcome.

stealsOVER 0.555%MEDIUM

Season steals are 0.8 per game and last 5 are 1.0, giving him consistent stock upside. The volatility is real, but the baseline supports a slight over lean.

blocksUNDER 0.561%MEDIUM

He averages exactly 0.5 blocks per game, but the last 5 drop to 0.2 and the recent game logs show limited block volume. With no strong spike signal, the under is the safer side.

stocksUNDER 1.559%MEDIUM

Season stocks average 1.3 and last 10 are 1.1, both below a 1.5 threshold. This is a high-variance category, so the conservative lean is under.

turnoversUNDER 267%MEDIUM

He is at 1.0 turnovers in the season data and 0.9 over the last 10. That is well below 2.0, making the under the clear side.

prOVER 11.554%MEDIUM

Points plus rebounds combines two of his steadier categories, and his season baseline supports a total near this range. Confidence is limited because combo props are more volatile.

paOVER 11.553%MEDIUM

His season points and assists combine to 12.73 on average, and his last 5 are also strong enough to keep this competitive. Still, combo variance keeps the confidence modest.

timelineOVER 7.5 PTS