Last 10 games
| Defender | Games | Min | eFG% | vs Season | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | 4 | 26 | 48% | -10.2% | medium |
| Evan Mobley | 3 | 22 | 65% | +9.8% | medium |
| Paolo Banchero | 3 | 22 | 35% | -14.9% | medium |
| Jalen Johnson | 4 | 21 | 75% |
Scottie Barnes is averaging 18.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 5.3 APG on the season, but his recent scoring has cooled to 15.8 PPG over the last 5 and 15.9 over the last 10. The matchup context is mixed: Denver owns a 116.77 defensive rating with a 100 pace, which points to a slower, lower-possession game, but Barnes has still produced 20.43 PPG, 9.29 RPG, and 6 APG in 7 games vs this opponent. His home split is slightly better than away for scoring and rebounds, and the key defender data does not provide a specific one-on-one matchup to target.
Denver's defense is listed at 116.77 defensive rating with a 100 pace, which suggests a slower game environment. No specific defender matchup data is available, so the analysis has to rely on team-level context and Barnes' historical production against this opponent.
| Player | Prop | Line | Pick | Confidence | ML | Trend | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scottie Barnes▼ | Points | 16.5 | UNDER | 68%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 60% | 15 | ✓ |
Scottie Barnes▼ | Rebounds | 6.5 | OVER | 57%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 20% | 8 | ✓ |
Scottie Barnes▼ | Assists | 4.5 | UNDER | 61%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 80% | 8 | ✗ |
Scottie Barnes▼ | 3PM | 0.5 | OVER | 56%MEDIUM | — | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
Scottie Barnes▼ | Blocks | 1.5 | UNDER | 58%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 80% | 2 | ✗ |
Scottie Barnes▼ | Steals | 1.5 | UNDER | 63%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 2 | ✗ |
Scottie Barnes▼ | STL+BLK | 2.5 | OVER | 55%MEDIUM | — | 50% | 4 | ✓ |
Scottie Barnes▼ | P+R | 23.5 | UNDER | 60%MEDIUM | 2/2 | 70% | 23 | ✓ |
Scottie Barnes▼ | P+A | 22.5 | UNDER | 59%MEDIUM | 1/2 | 90% | 23 | ✗ |
This is the clearest value signal in the data: Barnes' season scoring is 18.7, but his recent mean is 15.8 and the value props show UNDER 16.5 with positive EV. The slower 100 pace opponent adds support, and his b2b and recent form indicators are both softer than his season baseline.
| medium |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | 4 | 19 | 42% | -11.3% | medium |
| Defender | Games | Min | PTS | FG% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokić | 1 | 8 | 9 | 75% | 75% |
| DaRon Holmes II | 1 | 4 | 5 | 100% | 125% |
| Jamal Murray | 2 | 4 | 8 | 50% | 50% |
| Jonas Valančiūnas | 1 | 3 | 4 | 67% | 67% |
| Aaron Gordon | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
His season mean is 18.7, but the recent mean is only 15.8 and the value data shows UNDER at 16.5 with positive EV. With a slower 100 pace opponent and a recent scoring dip, the lower side is the cleaner angle.
Barnes averages 7.8 rebounds for the season and 8.0 at home, with value data showing modest support for the OVER at 6.5. The last 5 is down to 6.8, so confidence stays moderate rather than strong.
His season average is 5.3 assists, but the last 10 is down to 3.6 and the recent mean is 3.6 as well. The prop line is sitting below season average, but current form points to a slight under lean.
He averages 0.89 threes per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 10, which clears a 0.5 line. The profile is volatile, so this is only a modest-confidence over.
Barnes averages 1.5 blocks on the season, but recent blocks have been 1.2 over the last 5 and 1.1 over the last 10. Because the line is already at 1.5, the under is the safer side.
He averages 1.4 steals on the season, but the line is 1.5 and his home/away splits are only 1.7 and 1.1 respectively. Given the volatility of steals, the under is slightly favored.
Barnes averages 2.91 stocks on the season and 2.6 over the last 5, so he has the category volume to clear a modest line. Variance is still meaningful, so confidence stays capped.
His season points plus rebounds profile is 26.45 using the provided means, but recent scoring and rebounding are both below season level. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is preferred if taking a side.
Season points plus assists is 23.97, but the recent assists trend has fallen to 3.6 and points to 15.9. With both components cooling, the under is the more conservative lean.