AI Model:

Scottie Barnes—

TOR · PF

PPG

18.7

RPG

7.8

APG

5.3

L5 PPG

15.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG-2.9

18.7

15.8

RPG-1.0

7.8

6.8

APG-1.1

5.3

4.2

SPG0.0

1.4

BPG-0.3

1.5

1.2

UNDER 16.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

16.5

SAS

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs SAS: 15 pts

WAS

2026-02-28

2026-02-28 vs WAS: 18 pts

NYK

2026-03-03

2026-03-03 vs NYK: 14 pts

MIN

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs MIN: 16 pts

DAL

2026-03-08

2026-03-08 vs DAL: 17 pts

HOU

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs HOU: 24 pts

NOP

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs NOP: 9 pts

PHX

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs PHX: 14 pts

DET

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs DET: 14 pts

CHI

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs CHI: 18 pts

Over 16.5

Under 16.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 16.5FANDUEL

68%

REB

OVER 6.5FANDUEL

57%

AST

UNDER 4.5FANDUEL

61%

3PM

OVER 0.5BETONLINEAG

56%

BLK

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

58%

STL

UNDER 1.5FANDUEL

63%

STL+BLK

OVER 2.5

55%

P+R

UNDER 23.5FANDUEL

60%

P+A

UNDER 22.5FANDUEL

59%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

16.4

16.0

RPG

7.2

6.5

APG

5.2

4.4

vs DEN (H2H)7 games

PPG

20.4

RPG

9.3

APG

6.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Pascal Siakam	4	26	48%	-10.2%	medium
Evan Mobley	3	22	65%	+9.8%	medium
Paolo Banchero	3	22	35%	-14.9%	medium
Jalen Johnson	4	21	75%

Barnes faces a tough scoring environment, but rebounds and stocks remain live

Scottie Barnes is averaging 18.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 5.3 APG on the season, but his recent scoring has cooled to 15.8 PPG over the last 5 and 15.9 over the last 10. The matchup context is mixed: Denver owns a 116.77 defensive rating with a 100 pace, which points to a slower, lower-possession game, but Barnes has still produced 20.43 PPG, 9.29 RPG, and 6 APG in 7 games vs this opponent. His home split is slightly better than away for scoring and rebounds, and the key defender data does not provide a specific one-on-one matchup to target.

Stat Trends

PPG

15.8(↓ from 18.7)

RPG

6.8(↓ from 7.8)

APG

4.2(↓ from 5.3)

Key Matchup

Denver's defense is listed at 116.77 defensive rating with a 100 pace, which suggests a slower game environment. No specific defender matchup data is available, so the analysis has to rely on team-level context and Barnes' historical production against this opponent.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Scottie Barnes▼	Points	16.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	15	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	Rebounds	6.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	1/2	20%	8	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	Assists	4.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	8	✗
Scottie Barnes▼	3PM	0.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	70%	1	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	Blocks	1.5	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	1/2	80%	2	✗
Scottie Barnes▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	2	✗
Scottie Barnes▼	STL+BLK	2.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	—	50%	4	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	P+R	23.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	23	✓
Scottie Barnes▼	P+A	22.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	90%	23	✗

ML Scout Analysis

PTS17.5UNDER26%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (15/20)UNDER 4x6/2030%+17.8% edge▼

P+R20.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (14/20)UNDER 4x10/2050%▼

REB7.5UNDER50%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 6x3/2015%+27.0% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to HIGH▼

PRA32.5UNDER26%gbt_praDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 4x3/2015%+30.0% edge▼

P+A22UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x7/2035%▼

AST6.5OVER7%gbt_assistsWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

BLK1.5UNDER81%gbt_blocksWeak Leg (11/20)UNDER 3x5/2025%+8.3% edge▼

R+A12UNDER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)9/2045%▼

STL1.5UNDER9%gbt_stealsWeak Leg (10/20)OVER 7x12/2060%▼

Featured Pick

Scottie Barnes

Points UNDER 16.5HIGH

This is the clearest value signal in the data: Barnes' season scoring is 18.7, but his recent mean is 15.8 and the value props show UNDER 16.5 with positive EV. The slower 100 pace opponent adds support, and his b2b and recent form indicators are both softer than his season baseline.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Nikola Jokić	1	8	9	75%	75%
DaRon Holmes II	1	4	5	100%	125%
Jamal Murray	2	4	8	50%	50%
Jonas Valančiūnas	1	3	4	67%	67%
Aaron Gordon	1	3	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 16.568%MEDIUM

His season mean is 18.7, but the recent mean is only 15.8 and the value data shows UNDER at 16.5 with positive EV. With a slower 100 pace opponent and a recent scoring dip, the lower side is the cleaner angle.

reboundsOVER 6.557%MEDIUM

Barnes averages 7.8 rebounds for the season and 8.0 at home, with value data showing modest support for the OVER at 6.5. The last 5 is down to 6.8, so confidence stays moderate rather than strong.

assistsUNDER 4.561%MEDIUM

His season average is 5.3 assists, but the last 10 is down to 3.6 and the recent mean is 3.6 as well. The prop line is sitting below season average, but current form points to a slight under lean.

threesOVER 0.556%MEDIUM

He averages 0.89 threes per game on the season and 1.0 over the last 10, which clears a 0.5 line. The profile is volatile, so this is only a modest-confidence over.

blocksUNDER 1.558%MEDIUM

Barnes averages 1.5 blocks on the season, but recent blocks have been 1.2 over the last 5 and 1.1 over the last 10. Because the line is already at 1.5, the under is the safer side.

stealsUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

He averages 1.4 steals on the season, but the line is 1.5 and his home/away splits are only 1.7 and 1.1 respectively. Given the volatility of steals, the under is slightly favored.

stocksOVER 2.555%MEDIUM

Barnes averages 2.91 stocks on the season and 2.6 over the last 5, so he has the category volume to clear a modest line. Variance is still meaningful, so confidence stays capped.

prUNDER 23.560%MEDIUM

His season points plus rebounds profile is 26.45 using the provided means, but recent scoring and rebounding are both below season level. Combo props carry extra variance, so the under is preferred if taking a side.

paUNDER 22.559%MEDIUM

Season points plus assists is 23.97, but the recent assists trend has fallen to 3.6 and points to 15.9. With both components cooling, the under is the more conservative lean.

timelineUNDER 16.5 PTS