Spencer Jones▼

DEN · SF

PPG

6.0

RPG

3.3

APG

0.8

L5 PPG

7.4

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+1.4

6.0

7.4

RPG+0.7

3.3

4.0

APG0.0

0.8

SPG+0.3

0.9

1.2

BPG+0.3

0.5

0.8

UNDER 7.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

7.5

GSW

2026-02-22

2026-02-22 vs GSW: 2 pts

BOS

2026-02-25

2026-02-25 vs BOS: 6 pts

OKC

2026-02-27

2026-02-27 vs OKC: 0 pts

NYK

2026-03-06

2026-03-06 vs NYK: 2 pts

OKC

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs OKC: 6 pts

HOU

2026-03-11

2026-03-11 vs HOU: 0 pts

SAS

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs SAS: 19 pts

LAL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs LAL: 5 pts

PHI

2026-03-17

2026-03-17 vs PHI: 7 pts

MEM

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs MEM: 6 pts

Over 7.5

Under 7.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 7.5STAKE

74%

REB

UNDER 4.5STAKE

68%

AST

UNDER 0.5STAKE

71%

3PM

UNDER 1

70%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

76%

BLK

OVER 0.5STAKE

58%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

UNDER 0.5

66%

P+R

UNDER 11.5STAKE

67%

R+A

UNDER 5.5STAKE

65%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

5.6

5.5

RPG

4.0

3.9

APG

0.4

0.8

vs TOR (H2H)1 games

PPG

6.0

RPG

7.0

APG

2.0

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Kevin Durant	4	17	80%	+19.6%	medium
Cooper Flagg	4	13	65%	+8.4%	medium
Kawhi Leonard	2	10	65%	+11.1%	low
Alperen Sengun	4	9	60%

Spencer Jones’ scoring is capped, but stocks and rebounds keep him relevant

Spencer Jones is coming in with a season scoring average of 6.0 PPG, and his recent form has been modest at 5.3 PPG over the last 10 and 7.4 over the last 5. His minutes have also slipped from 23.2 seasonally to 19.4 over the last 10, which matters for a player whose props are driven more by low-usage contributions than high-volume offense. The matchup data does not show a specific defender matchup edge, and the opponent profile points to a slightly suppressive scoring environment. Given the season baseline and the recent minute dip, the safest angles lean toward unders on points and combo props.

Stat Trends

PPG

7.4(↑ from 6.0)

RPG

4.0(↑ from 3.3)

APG

0.8(→ from 0.8)

Stocks

2.0(↑ from 1.3)

Key Matchup

No specific defender matchup data is available. The opponent context leans neutral-to-slightly negative for scoring, with a def_rating of 111.84 and scoring_suppression of -0.804, which does not help an over on a low-usage wing.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Spencer Jones▼	Points	7.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	1/2	90%	0	✓
Spencer Jones▼	Rebounds	4.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	3	✓
Spencer Jones▼	Assists	0.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	—	70%	4	✗
Spencer Jones▼	3PM	1	UNDER	70%HIGH	2/2	90%	0	✓
Spencer Jones▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	76%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Spencer Jones▼	Blocks	0.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	—	40%	0	✗
Spencer Jones▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	70%	0	✓
Spencer Jones▼	Turnovers	0.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✓
Spencer Jones▼	P+R	11.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	3	✓
Spencer Jones▼	R+A	5.5	UNDER	65%MEDIUM	2/2	80%	7	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+R8.5UNDER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x7/1839%▼

P+A5.5UNDER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 5x7/1839%▼

R+A4.5OVER0%gbt_raWeak Leg (11/20)10/1856%▼

Featured Pick

Spencer Jones

Points UNDER 7.5HIGH

This is the cleanest edge because his season mean is 6.02 points, his last 10 is 5.3, and his minutes have fallen to 19.4 over that same span. The 7.5 line asks for more than his usual output, and the recent form plus opponent scoring suppression make the under the strongest play.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Scottie Barnes	2	5	0	0%	0%
RJ Barrett	2	3	5	50%	63%
Collin Murray-Boyles	1	3	0	0%	0%
Brandon Ingram	2	2	5	67%	67%
Jamal Shead	2	2	0	0%	0%

pointsUNDER 7.574%HIGH

His season mean is 6.02 points, below the 7.5 line, and his last 10 is only 5.3. With recent minutes down to 19.4 and the opponent showing scoring suppression of -0.804, the under is the cleaner side.

reboundsUNDER 4.568%MEDIUM

He averages 3.32 rebounds for the season and 3.6 over the last 10, both short of 4.5. The recent uptick to 4.0 over the last 5 is not enough to override the longer sample.

assistsUNDER 0.571%HIGH

His season assist average is 0.82, but the recent mean is just 0.5 and he has been at 0.5 over the last 10. That makes a made assist possible, but the under is still the better probability play at this low usage level.

threesUNDER 170%HIGH

He averages exactly 1.0 threes per game seasonally, but only 0.6 over the last 10 and 0.6 over the last 5. The recent dip plus a suppressive three profile for the opponent supports the under.

stealsUNDER 1.576%HIGH

He averages 0.9 steals per game on the season and 0.7 over the last 10, well below 1.5. Even with a 1.2 average over the last 5, this line is too high for his baseline.

blocksOVER 0.558%MEDIUM

He averages 0.5 blocks per game on the season and 0.5 over the last 10, so this is right on his baseline. The last 5 at 0.8 suggests a small lean to the over, but variance keeps confidence modest.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.34 and the last 10 is 1.2, both under 1.5. The last 5 spike to 2.0 is notable, but not enough to trust the over given the combined variance.

turnoversUNDER 0.566%MEDIUM

He has only 0.3 turnovers per game over the last 20 and 0.2 over the last 10. That low turnover profile makes the under the more likely outcome.

prUNDER 11.567%MEDIUM

His season point-rebound average sits at 9.34, and his recent scoring/minutes have trended below his season baseline. Combo props carry extra variance, and this line is higher than his typical output.

raUNDER 5.565%MEDIUM

He combines for 6.62 rebounds plus assists on the season, but recent assists have been muted at 0.5 over the last 10. The line is close enough to make the under the safer side in a low-usage profile.

timelineUNDER 7.5 PTS