AI Model:

Brandin Podziemski▼

GSW · PG

PPG

13.0

RPG

5.3

APG

3.7

L5 PPG

17.0

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+4.0

13.0

17.0

RPG+0.9

5.3

6.2

APG+0.1

3.7

3.8

SPG-0.1

1.1

1.0

BPG0.0

0.2

OVER 12.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

OVER

Streak Type

12.5

LAC

2026-03-02

2026-03-02 vs LAC: 22 pts

HOU

2026-03-05

2026-03-05 vs HOU: 26 pts

OKC

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs OKC: 17 pts

UTA

2026-03-09

2026-03-09 vs UTA: 14 pts

CHI

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs CHI: 9 pts

MIN

2026-03-13

2026-03-13 vs MIN: 25 pts

NYK

2026-03-15

2026-03-15 vs NYK: 25 pts

WAS

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs WAS: 10 pts

BOS

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs BOS: 10 pts

DET

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs DET: 15 pts

Over 12.5

Under 12.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

OVER 12.5STAKE

59%

REB

OVER 5.5DRAFTKINGS

54%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

55%

3PM

OVER 1.5DRAFTKINGS

56%

STL

UNDER 1.5STAKE

67%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

71%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

63%

UNDER 2

58%

PRA

UNDER 21.5

57%

P+R

UNDER 18.5

60%

P+A

UNDER 16.5STAKE

59%

R+A

UNDER 10.5

61%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

14.9

15.1

RPG

6.6

6.9

APG

4.7

3.8

vs ATL (H2H)5 games

PPG

10.0

RPG

5.0

APG

2.8

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
Christian Braun	4	12	67%	+21.1%	medium
Kris Dunn	3	10	81%	+16.9%	medium
Austin Reaves	3	10	43%	-2.7%	medium
Jaylen Wells	3	9	17%

Podziemski’s recent volume is up, but the market still leans under on his scoring

Brandin Podziemski is producing well above his season line lately, with 17.0 PPG over his last 5 and 17.3 over his last 10 compared to 13.0 for the season. His minutes have also jumped from 28.1 season-wide to 33.7 over the last 10, which supports his recent rebound in counting stats. Even so, his prior 5 games vs this opponent show just 10.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 2.8 APG in 26.6 MPG, so the matchup history is not especially friendly. With both teams on a back-to-back, there is some fatigue-driven variance, but the safest lean remains on the more modest season baseline rather than the hot stretch.

Stat Trends

PPG

17.0(↑ from 13.0)

RPG

6.2(↑ from 5.3)

APG

3.8(→ from 3.7)

SPG

1.0(→ from 1.1)

Key Matchup

Key defender data is limited here, and one listed name has only 1.4 minutes with no meaningful defensive sample. The more relevant matchup note is the team-level context: Atlanta’s defense shows a 116.61 rating, pace of 100, and a three suppression of -0.246, while Podziemski has averaged only 10.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 2.8 APG across 5 prior games against this opponent.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
Brandin Podziemski▼	Points	12.5	OVER	59%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	5	✗
Brandin Podziemski▼	Rebounds	5.5	OVER	54%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	0	✗
Brandin Podziemski▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	55%MEDIUM	1/2	50%	1	✗
Brandin Podziemski▼	3PM	1.5	OVER	56%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	0	✗
Brandin Podziemski▼	Steals	1.5	UNDER	67%MEDIUM	2/2	60%	0	✓
Brandin Podziemski▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	71%HIGH	—	80%	0	✓
Brandin Podziemski▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	—	50%	0	✓
Brandin Podziemski▼	Turnovers	2	UNDER	58%MEDIUM	—	80%	3	✗
Brandin Podziemski▼	PRA	21.5	UNDER	57%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	6	✓
Brandin Podziemski▼	P+R	18.5	UNDER	60%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	5	✓
Brandin Podziemski▼	P+A	16.5	UNDER	59%MEDIUM	2/2	30%	6	✓
Brandin Podziemski▼	R+A	10.5	UNDER	61%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	1	✓

ML Scout Analysis

PTS15.5OVER19%gbt_pointsDecent Leg (14/20)OVER 2x12/2060%+5.5% edgeConfidence moved MEDIUM to LOW▼

PRA25.5OVER44%gbt_praDecent Leg (14/20)12/2060%+7.2% edgeConfidence moved LOW to HIGH▼

REB5.5OVER17%gbt_reboundsDecent Leg (13/20)UNDER 2x13/2065%+14.3% edgePrediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.348; Scorecard changed +3.0▼

P+A22OVER0%gbt_paDecent Leg (13/20)11/2055%▼

AST4.5OVER12%gbt_assistsDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x10/2050%Prediction flipped UNDER to OVER; Value edge shifted +0.133▼

R+A10.5OVER0%gbt_raDecent Leg (12/20)UNDER 2x11/2055%▼

P+R23.5OVER0%gbt_prDecent Leg (12/20)10/2050%▼

3PM1.5OVER35%gbt_three_pmWeak Leg (11/20)OVER 7x15/2075%+11.4% edgeConfidence moved HIGH to MEDIUM▼

Featured Pick

Brandin Podziemski

Points UNDER 16.5HIGH

This is the clearest value side in the data: multiple books show the under as the best side, and the value feed gives the under a strong edge with an expected value of 50.89 per 100 at DraftKings and 55.08 at BetOnline. Even though his recent scoring is up, his season mean is 12.99 and his prior 5 games vs this opponent are only 10.0 PPG, making 16.5 a tough number to clear.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	2	3	2	50%	50%
Dyson Daniels	2	3	0	0%	0%
Luke Kennard	1	2	5	100%	125%
Corey Kispert	2	2	0	0%	0%
CJ McCollum	2	1	2	33%	33%

pointsOVER 12.559%MEDIUM

His season mean is 12.99 and recent scoring has climbed to 16.7, so 12.5 is modest relative to his current role. The downside is the opponent history: he has averaged only 10.0 PPG in 5 games vs this team, which keeps confidence in check.

reboundsOVER 5.554%MEDIUM

He is averaging 5.25 rebounds for the season and 6.4 over the last 10, with 6.2 over the last 5. That said, the edge is small and the profile is fairly volatile, so this is a narrow lean only.

assistsOVER 3.555%MEDIUM

His season assist average is 3.69 and his recent mean is 4.3, while his last 10 are at 4.0. The 33.7 recent-minute run supports the over, though his production has still been uneven.

threesOVER 1.556%MEDIUM

He averages 1.81 made threes on the season and 2.4 over the last 10, so 1.5 is below his typical output. Recent shot volume is strong enough to back the over, but the variance on this prop keeps the confidence moderate.

stealsUNDER 1.567%MEDIUM

His season steals average is 1.1 and the recent form is 1.0, both below the 1.5 line. Even with solid defensive activity, the over price is expensive and the data does not support a high-steal projection.

blocksUNDER 0.571%HIGH

He averages only 0.2 blocks per game on the season and 0.2 over the last 5. That makes 0.5 a clear under lean despite the low standard threshold.

stocksUNDER 1.563%MEDIUM

His combined stocks average is 1.28 for the season and 1.2 over the last 5, both sitting below 1.5. This is a steadier under than the individual defensive stat props because the combined line still sits above his typical production.

turnoversUNDER 258%MEDIUM

He has 1.8 turnovers per game in the recent game logs and 1.8 in the rolling data, which is close but still below 2.0. The line is playable for the under, though the margin is not large.

praUNDER 21.557%MEDIUM

His season profile (13.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists) sums to 22.0, but the combo prop carries extra variance and the under bias is important here. The opponent history at 10.0/5.0/2.8 also argues against paying for a high PRA number.

prUNDER 18.560%MEDIUM

Points plus rebounds at season level total 18.24, and his recent form is stronger but still not enough to make the over automatic. With combo props showing lower hit rates, the under is the more conservative side.

paUNDER 16.559%MEDIUM

His season points-plus-assists profile is 16.69, almost exactly at the line, but the recent swing in scoring has not been matched by a major assist spike. With the line sitting above his season mean, the under remains slightly preferable.

raUNDER 10.561%MEDIUM

Rebounds plus assists average 9.0 on the season and 10.4 over the last 10, leaving very little cushion at 10.5. Because combo props are higher-variance, this is a cautious under.

timelineOVER 12.5 PTS