AI Model:

CJ McCollum—

ATL · PG

PPG

18.6

RPG

3.4

APG

3.6

L5 PPG

18.8

Last 10 GamesPTS

Season vs Last 5

Season Last 5

PPG+0.2

18.6

18.8

RPG-1.2

3.4

2.2

APG-0.4

3.6

3.2

SPG+0.4

0.8

1.2

BPG+0.6

0.4

1.0

UNDER 20.5 PTS

Last 10 games

Current Streak

Longest Streak

UNDER

Streak Type

20.5

WAS

2026-02-26

2026-02-26 vs WAS: 25 pts

POR

2026-03-01

2026-03-01 vs POR: 19 pts

MIL

2026-03-04

2026-03-04 vs MIL: 18 pts

PHI

2026-03-07

2026-03-07 vs PHI: 17 pts

DAL

2026-03-10

2026-03-10 vs DAL: 13 pts

BKN

2026-03-12

2026-03-12 vs BKN: 14 pts

MIL

2026-03-14

2026-03-14 vs MIL: 30 pts

ORL

2026-03-16

2026-03-16 vs ORL: 9 pts

DAL

2026-03-18

2026-03-18 vs DAL: 24 pts

HOU

2026-03-20

2026-03-20 vs HOU: 17 pts

Over 20.5

Under 20.5

Last 10 games

Prop Confidence

PTS

UNDER 20.5STAKE

68%

REB

UNDER 3.5STAKE

66%

AST

OVER 3.5STAKE

58%

3PM

UNDER 2.5

63%

STL

OVER 0.5STAKE

57%

BLK

UNDER 0.5STAKE

74%

STL+BLK

UNDER 1.5

55%

OVER 2

56%

P+A

UNDER 22.5STAKE

62%

P+R

UNDER 22.5STAKE

64%

Home vs Away

Home

Away

PPG

15.9

22.6

RPG

3.5

2.5

APG

3.2

4.5

vs GSW (H2H)13 games

PPG

17.3

RPG

4.3

APG

4.3

Defensive Matchup Profile

Top Defenders This Season

Defender	Games	Min	eFG%	vs Season	Sample
AJ Green	6	27	56%	-7.8%	medium
Max Christie	4	16	43%	-16.7%	medium
Amen Thompson	3	14	68%	+19.0%	medium
Sam Hauser	5	14	100%

McCollum’s scoring sits in a tight range, with the under lean strengthened by Atlanta’s home split and opponent suppression

CJ McCollum has been steady overall, with season averages of 18.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, and his last-5 scoring at 18.8 points is essentially in line with that baseline. The home split is a concern for points, as he averages just 15.9 PPG at home versus 22.6 away, while his matchup history against this opponent is also modest at 17.3 PPG across 13 games. The opponent profile is not especially inviting for scoring, with a defensive rating of 114.35 and scoring suppression of -0.227, so his strongest look is staying around his current season mean rather than clearing inflated point expectations.

Stat Trends

PPG

18.8(→ from 18.6)

RPG

2.2(↓ from 3.4)

APG

3.2(↓ from 3.6)

Stocks

2.2(↑ from 1.2)

Key Matchup

Key defender data is limited, with no specific defender matchup data beyond the listed Warriors defenders. The opponent context points more toward the team profile: a 114.35 defensive rating, pace of 100, and negative scoring suppression, which slightly dampens McCollum’s scoring outlook.

Prop Analysis

Player	Prop	Line	Pick	Confidence	ML	Trend	Actual	Result
CJ McCollum▼	Points	20.5	UNDER	68%MEDIUM	2/2	70%	23	✗
CJ McCollum▼	Rebounds	3.5	UNDER	66%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	3	✓
CJ McCollum▼	Assists	3.5	OVER	58%MEDIUM	2/2	50%	5	✓
CJ McCollum▼	3PM	2.5	UNDER	63%MEDIUM	2/2	90%	1	✓
CJ McCollum▼	Steals	0.5	OVER	57%MEDIUM	—	80%	0	✗
CJ McCollum▼	Blocks	0.5	UNDER	74%HIGH	—	50%	0	✓
CJ McCollum▼	STL+BLK	1.5	UNDER	55%MEDIUM	—	60%	0	✓
CJ McCollum▼	Turnovers	2	OVER	56%MEDIUM	—	30%	2	✗
CJ McCollum▼	P+A	22.5	UNDER	62%MEDIUM	1/2	40%	28	✗
CJ McCollum▼	P+R	22.5	UNDER	64%MEDIUM	1/2	70%	26	✗

ML Scout Analysis

P+A23OVER0%gbt_paWeak Leg (11/20)11/2055%▼

P+R21.5UNDER0%gbt_prWeak Leg (8/20)9/2045%▼

R+A7.5UNDER0%gbt_raAvoid (7/20)OVER 2x9/2045%▼

Featured Pick

CJ McCollum

Points UNDER 20.5HIGH

This line is above his 18.6 season average and well above his 15.9 PPG home split. His last-5 scoring of 18.8 is stable rather than explosive, and his history against this opponent is only 17.3 PPG across 13 games, making the under the cleanest side.

This analysis is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It is not financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly.

Defender	Games	Min	PTS	FG%	eFG%
Will Richard	2	7	2	100%	100%
De'Anthony Melton	2	2	5	67%	83%
Brandin Podziemski	2	2	0	0%	0%
Gary Payton II	1	2	0	0%	0%
Gui Santos	2	1	2	100%	100%

pointsUNDER 20.568%MEDIUM

He averages 18.6 points on the season and only 15.9 PPG at home, so the 20.5 line asks for a clear overperformance. His last-5 at 18.8 is not enough to justify an over given the stable trend and opponent scoring suppression.

reboundsUNDER 3.566%MEDIUM

McCollum’s season rebound average is 3.4 and his last-5 is 2.2, below the line. The variance is meaningful, but the home split at 3.5 still leaves little cushion for an over.

assistsOVER 3.558%MEDIUM

His last-10 assist average is 4.3, above both the season mean of 3.67 and the 3.5 line. This is still a lower-confidence play because his season profile is not high-assist and the recent jump is above baseline.

threesUNDER 2.563%MEDIUM

He averages 2.48 threes per game on the season and 1.7 over the last 5, which does not support an over. The season mean is already below 2.5, so the under is the cleaner side.

stealsOVER 0.557%MEDIUM

He averages 0.8 steals per game on the season and 0.9 over the last 10, clearing the 0.5 threshold. The floor is still volatile, so confidence stays moderate.

blocksUNDER 0.574%HIGH

His season block average is just 0.4, below the line, and blocks remain a low-frequency outcome for him. Even with a recent 1.0 last-5, the season baseline favors the under.

stocksUNDER 1.555%MEDIUM

His season stocks average is 1.17, below 1.5, though the last-5 has been elevated at 2.2. Because combo volatility is high, the season mean gets more weight and keeps this under lean.

turnoversOVER 256%MEDIUM

He has a 2.0 turnovers average in the recent windows and is at 2.0 in the provided recent trend data. This is not a strong edge, but the projection sits right on the threshold with slight over lean.

paUNDER 22.562%MEDIUM

His season scoring plus assists baseline is 22.27 using 18.6 points and 3.67 assists, which sits just below the line. The combo prop adds variance, and his home scoring dip supports the under.

prUNDER 22.564%MEDIUM

Using season means, points plus rebounds projects to 22.05, slightly below 22.5. His home scoring and rebound profile both lean softer than the line.

timelineUNDER 20.5 PTS